Why Notre Dame can notch 4 sacks for the fourth time in five games

Notre Dame’s pass rush didn’t have many chances to create pressure last week against Navy’s triple option offense. The Irish have an advantageous matchup Saturday against a Boston College offensive line besieged by injuries and ineffectiveness.

Notre Dame is 4-0 when it has at least 4 sacks in a game. Boston College is allowing 3.9 per game, tied for the highest average in the Power 5. Only three FBS teams are surrendering more.

Two BlueandGold.com beat writers discuss below if the Irish can hit the 4-sack mark in a weekly segment breaking down three statistical prop bets for the game.

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Over/under 4.0 sacks for Notre Dame

Patrick Engel: Over.

Boston College has allowed at least 4 sacks in all but two games this year, including 5 to UConn and Virginia Tech in losses. Neither of those teams ranks higher than 65th in sacks per game or 74th in sack rate. Notre Dame is 17th and 11th, respectively.

Quarterback Emmett Morehead has given Boston College life in the passing game, with 660 yards in his two starts. He has not, though, avoided sacks. Duke and North Carolina State each brought him down five times.

Notre Dame had 4 sacks in three straight games before recording 1 against Navy, an expected dip given the Midshipmen’s triple-option offense. Its season high is 6, set against Cal Sept. 17. The Irish pass rush will resume its second-half ascent Saturday.

Tyler Horka: Over.

Notre Dame was in a good groove of getting to the quarterback before facing Navy, a team that doesn’t allow many quarterback takedowns because of the nature of the triple-option offense. Now, Al Washington’s defensive front goes against one of the worst teams at protecting the quarterback in the country. Boston College has allowed 39.0 sacks this season. Only Tulsa (42.0), Colorado State (48.0) and Akron (50.0) have allowed more.

But here’s the other twist. Notre Dame has only had more than 4.0 sacks in one game this season. The Irish had 6.0 vs. California on Sept. 17. So it’s going out on a bit of a limb to declare the Domers will have at least 4.5. But I’m going to do it anyway. It’s Senior Day. Isaiah Foskey is likely playing his last game at Notre Dame Stadium. Sitting just 0.5 sacks away from Justin Tuck’s all-time program record of 24.5, Foskey has a chance to make the record his own on an emotional afternoon at home.

The veteran-laden Irish defensive line has a field day against Boston College’s makeshift offensive line, one that has been decimated by injuries this fall.

Over/under 200 rushing yards for Notre Dame

Patrick Engel: Over.

Navy’s barrage of Cover 0 blitzes led Notre Dame to pass more than it had in recent weeks. It’s a possible blueprint for the final three opponents to follow, but one that comes with risk and one the Irish hadn’t seen before. I’m still skeptical another team outright copies it and throws Cover 0 pressures at Notre Dame seemingly every play.

With a presumably less crowded box, look for more than the 23 running back carries the Irish had last week – and way more than the 81 yards those produced. Getting to 200 against a middling Boston College defensive front feels within reach if the Irish recapture their Clemson form.

Three teams have put at least 200 rushing yards on Boston College, including the last two opponents. Rutgers had 212 in the season opener. Duke had 232, and North Carolina State 200. Each of those teams averaged at least 4.55 yards per carry. Rutgers and NC State are in the bottom 50 of yards per carry this season. If those two can eclipse 200 rushing yards, it’s fair to expect Notre Dame to do the same.

Tyler Horka: Over.

Notre Dame gets back to its identity Saturday. 

The combination of Navy’s top-10 rushing defense and Notre Dame’s unusual pass-happy attack resulted in 29 rushes for 96 yards (excluding sacks) for the Irish against the Midshipmen. The final line with sacks included read 34 attempts for 66 yards, a new season-low replacing 30 rushes for 76 yards against Ohio State in the season opener. 

The Irish have rushed for 200-plus yards five times this season. Boston College has let opponents reach that number on three occasions, including the last two vs. Duke (232) and NC State (200). On a cold, windy day in South Bend, Notre Dame is going to keep the ball on the ground and pound its way to victory in the home finale. 

Over/under 45 pass attempts for Boston College

Patrick Engel: Over.

This isn’t just because I think Boston College will be playing from behind, but because it has no other feasible option to move the ball. Morehead has thrown 45 and 48 passes in his two starts. The Eagles gave their running backs 10 total carries in last week’s win at North Carolina State, and they netted 7 yards. They’re last in stuff rate, per Football Outsiders, and are averaging 3.5 yards per running back carry.

Last year, we saw Notre Dame concede the run against strong run Wisconsin and Oklahoma State rush defenses by the end of the first quarter after begrudgingly trying it early on. And that was with an offensive line that looks like a Joe Moore winner compared to this Boston College group.

Morehead has made Boston College a bigger threat through the air than it was the first eight games. We’ve seen Notre Dame lean into the run-game strength because of its pass-game limitations this year. Look for Boston College to do the reverse.

Tyler Horka: Under.

Boston College cannot run behind its porous offensive line, and the Eagles have one of the best receivers in the country in Zay Flowers. Add in the element of optimism with Morehead, who has thrown 93 pass attempts in his first two starts of his career, and BC is going to want to come in slinging the rock around. 

Notre Dame is going to own time of possession, though, and the Irish defense is going to do a good job of getting off the field. The most pass attempts the Irish have faced this season were the 40 the two Clemson quarterbacks combined for a few weeks ago. The Irish face an average of 30.2 pass attempts per game. Boston College is assuredly going to go over that. But it will not hit 45.