Notre Dame bowl projections: How USC loss to Utah altered Irish’s postseason outlook

The Jan. 2 ReliaQuest Bowl became a strong possibility for Notre Dame – if not the likely destination – when reports of the Rose Bowl’s plans came out Wednesday. That lasted for about 48 hours.

No. 4 USC’s loss to No. 11 Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game swiped the ReliaQuest Bowl off the table for Notre Dame. The 8-4 Irish will end up where they had previously been projected for weeks: the Gator (Dec. 30, Jacksonville), Cheez-It (Dec. 29, Orlando) or Holiday Bowl (Dec. 28, San Diego). It’s a matter of which one.

Those three games are the first tier of non-New Year’s Six bowls with ACC tie-ins. They collaborate with the ACC and the available schools to determine who goes where after each bowl submits its top three choices to the ACC. The school also has some say in where it goes.

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“For the most part, those three bowls work together with the ACC office to find the best combination of team placements for those three games,” Bowl Season executive director Nick Carparelli said. “You’re typically not going to find yourself in a situation where all three bowls would want the same team, given geography, history, tradition.”

Those bowls will be picking between Notre Dame, Florida State (9-3) and the ACC Championship Game loser – either 10-3 Clemson or 9-4 North Carolina. The Seminoles are the logical choice for one of the Florida bowls given their proximity. The Tigers or Tar Heels make sense for the other Florida game, since they’re also within driving distance of most of those teams’ fans. Notre Dame has the largest presence of fans on the West Coast of those three.

That’s one way the bowl order can shake out. Notre Dame would sell tickets in Florida too, though.

Recent bowl history is a factor in selection as well. It’s worth noting Notre Dame played in the Cheez-It Bowl in 2019, but has not been in the Gator since 2003 and has never been to the Holiday. Clemson played in the Cheez-It last year.

Notre Dame has also never played in the ReliaQuest, formerly known as the Outback Bowl. It’s a Big Ten vs. SEC game with a clause that allows the ACC to take the Big Ten spot. The Rose Bowl appeared poised to trigger that clause.

The Athletic reported Wednesday the Rose Bowl would select No. 8 Penn State over No. 5 Ohio State if the Buckeyes were left out of the College Football Playoff. It was motivated by variety and matchup desirability. Ohio State had just played in Pasadena one year earlier. Penn State had not since 2016.

This is moot now, though, with USC’s loss seemingly sending Ohio State to the playoff.

But here’s how it would have trickled down to Notre Dame: Penn State taking the Rose Bowl spot over Ohio State would have sent the Buckeyes to the Orange Bowl, which gets the highest-ranked available team from the Big Ten, SEC or Notre Dame. If Ohio State went to the Rose Bowl, that team would be No. 7 Tennessee. (No. 6 Alabama is headed to the Sugar Bowl). If Penn State was the Rose’s pick, Ohio State would be Orange Bowl-bound because it is ranked ahead of Tennessee.

That would have opened Notre Dame’s ReliaQuest Bowl path. The ACC swipes the Big Ten’s ReliaQuest spot if a Big Ten team makes the Orange Bowl in a non-playoff year. That didn’t appear likely until reports of the Rose Bowl’s plans came out. When the ACC clause is triggered, the ReliaQuest gets first pick before the Cheez-It/Gator/Holiday trio.

Tracking Notre Dame’s bowl likelihood the last few days has felt like watching a pinball machine in action. It will cease Sunday, when bowl matchups are determined.

If Notre Dame goes to the Cheez-It, it will play a Big 12 team – possibly Oklahoma. It would face an SEC opponent in the Gator, presumed to be Mississippi State. The Irish would play Oregon if they head to the Holiday Bowl.