Jack Swarbrick: The calm during the speculation storm

One thing that’s hard to argue about Jack Swarbrick is that the 14-year Notre Dame athletics director has been a navigational maestro through some unprecedented times over the last decade.  

So, when all attention earlier this month turned to Notre Dame’s response after UCLA and USC announced they’ll leave the Pac-12 in 2024 for the Big Ten, Swarbrick’s calm wait-and-watch reaction perfectly fit his calculating style. 

“We don’t feel any particular urgency,” Swarbrick told ESPN’s Heather Dinich.

Much remains unknown. But we can be certain that Swarbrick’s decision on whether to join a conference will be based on future earning power and playoff access. 

Notre Dame currently brings in about $15 million a year from NBC to broadcast its football games and another $10.8 million from the ACC for its Olympic sports membership. It also receives $3.19 million from the College Football Playoff fund each year, whether it’s selected or not, and a couple million for playing hockey in the Big Ten. All of it adds up to about $30 million annually. 

Meanwhile, the Big Ten is set to offer at least $80 million a year to its member schools, and maybe even more, when a new media rights contract is agreed on in 2024. 

Ahh, but before we assume Notre Dame could make at least $50 million more each year by simply joining the Big Ten, let’s not forget its television deal with NBC expires in 2025.

And if the current 10-year contract signed nine years ago paid $15 million annually, the renegotiated deal with NBC could be worth four or five times more than that, per a recent report from CBS Sports reporter Dennis Dodd. 

Coincidentally, also in 2025, the four-team College Football Playoff contract expires at the same time Notre Dame’s deal with NBC does. 

A tentative CFP agreement announced in June of 2021 to adopt ASAP a 12-team playoff format — one in which Swarbrick helped negotiate — lost traction. 

That expansion plan may be resurrected in 2026. It may not.

So what are Notre Dame’s most logical future affiliation options?

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Join the Big Ten

At least geographically, financially and from a rivalry standpoint, this move makes sense.

Notre Dame already holds proud rivalries with Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue. 

And now with USC and UCLA joining the league, the Big Ten provides the coast-to-coast appeal and a national footprint that Notre Dame as an independent cherishes. 

Imagine a conference headlined by Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Notre Dame, Wisconsin and USC. 

And keep in mind, NBC is expected to enter a bidding war for Big Ten media rights after the 2022-23 school year. 

Might the Peacock Network find a way to double-dip, secure both the Big Ten and exclusive Notre Dame airing rights, and create a monster doubleheader broadcast opportunity every Saturday? 

That’s the plan.  

Join the Atlantic Coast Conference 

An all-in move by Notre Dame to the ACC would help stabilize the conference — maybe even save it — and provide the league added credibility as realignment and program poaching undoubtedly continues around it.

Joining the ACC is the smoothest move considering Notre Dame’s tidy existing fit in the league’s Olympic sports programs and its five-game football agreement with the conference each season. 

But if rumors eventually meet reality and marquee conference members Clemson, Florida State and Miami jump to the SEC and/or the Big Ten, the ACC loses all of its value. 

Circumstances can change, but as it stands now, Notre Dame would pay a hefty financial price in the tens of millions to leave the ACC before 2036. 

Fight for independence

It’s no secret that protecting 130 years of football independence is the preferred path moving forward, and Swarbrick will do everything in his power to follow it.

Notre Dame operates in its own vacuum because it can. 

The school sells and profits off of a unique blend of football, national appeal and academics that isn’t matched.

Notre Dame is the only university in U.S. News & World Report’s latest national rankings that finished top-20 in both academic performance and football attendance. 

In addition to these three aforementioned options, there’s also chatter about Notre Dame joining the SEC. That’s not likely considering the SEC recently announced that it’s satisfied with a 16-team model, at least for now. 

The theories still fly wildly that this latest realignment is the one that finally forces Notre Dame’s hand to join a conference.  

Instead, knowing that the grass isn’t necessarily greener, and if it ain’t broke don’t fix it, and I hold pocket aces, Swarbrick goes about business as usual. 

“There’s ample time for us to let the landscape settle,” he said.