Notre Dame College Football Playoff predictions: All experts project Irish to host first-round game

Win, and you’re in. That’s the current state of the Notre Dame football program (10-1) with one week remaining in this year’s college football regular season. Many experts expect the Fighting Irish to take care of business when they face Southern Cal on Saturday. And they reflected that in their latest College Football Playoff projections and bowl game predictions.

On Monday, Blue & Gold shared a complete breakdown of where 12 analysts and three news media outlets project the Fighting Irish in the postseason.

ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura: No. 6 seed, vs. SMU

CFP Quarterfinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Miami
CFP Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Texas

“Notre Dame remains somewhat of a mystery to me. It has obviously played well since the bizarre loss to Northern Illinois, but the poor strength of schedule presents a proverbial asterisk. More than ever, it feels like Notre Dame should be forced to join a conference. 

“Tradition went out the window a long time ago in college football, and allowing a major team to exist outside the normal confines of the sport is unserious behavior. The Irish are on the cusp of being rewarded with a premium seed despite the fact that they won’t be subjected to the physical toll or possibility of a loss in a conference title game.” — Bonagura

ESPN’s Mark Schlabach: No. 6 seed, vs. Indiana

CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Georgia

“I’m not sure Notre Dame would be seeded as high as it is if its name wasn’t Notre Dame after that ugly loss to Northern Illinois. I have the Irish falling to Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.”  — Schlabach

CBS’ Jerry Palm: No. 8 seed, vs. Indiana

“Notre Dame completed a sweep of our military academies with a 49-14 win over previously unbeaten Army. The Fighting Irish handed Navy its first loss of the season on Oct. 26 by a 51-14 score.” — Palm

Action Network’s Brett McMurphy: No. 6 seed, vs. SMU

The Irish would be a projected 5.5-point favorite against the Mustangs. (No analysis provided)

CFP Quarterfinal at the Peach Bowl: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 8 Notre Dame

The Irish would be a projected 2-point favorite against the Hurricanes.  (No analysis provided)

The Athletic’s Stewart Mandel: No. 7 seed, vs. Indiana

No analysis was provided. 

The Athletic’s Austin Mock: No. 8 seed, vs. Indiana

The Irish have a 98% chance to make the College Football Playoff and a 72% chance to host a first-round game. Their chances to win the national championship are 8%.

Athlon Sports: No. 8 seed, vs. Indiana

CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8 Notre Dame

No analysis was provided. 

USA TODAY Sports: Indiana at Notre Dame

CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Notre Dame vs. Oregon

No analysis was provided. 

Bleacher Report: No. 7 seed, vs. Tennessee 

No analysis was provided. 

On3’s Andy Staples: No. 7 seed, vs. Indiana

“The Fighting Irish annihilated Army on Saturday. Beat USC and Notre Dame will be in and hosting a playoff game. The best Notre Dame can do because of the format rules is the No. 5 seed. If they can wind up hosting a game, that’s probably a good benchmark for a successful Notre Dame season in this era.” — Staples

On3’s Ari Wasserman: No. 7 seed, vs. Indiana

“Watching the Notre Dame-Army game and the closing speed the Irish have on defense is just too much for these triple option teams. Even when [Army quarterback Bryson] Daily makes the right read, Notre Dame’s defenders just erase the field.” — Wasserman

ESPN’s Heather Dinich: No. 7 seed, vs. SMU

“The Irish beat previously undefeated Army soundly, adding an important win to their résumé and possibly also knocking Army out of the committee’s top 25. It’s a bit of a Catch-22, as the committee will acknowledge that Army probably wasn’t as good of a win as its record indicated.

“While it’s possible the committee considers bumping the Irish up a notch ahead of Penn State, they don’t just move teams based on the latest result, and Notre Dame’s home loss to Northern Illinois remains a sticking point in the room. Notre Dame’s season-opening win against Texas A&M took another hit on Saturday after the Aggies lost in four overtimes to unranked Auburn.” — Dinich

NBC Sports’ Nicole Auerbach and Joshua Perry: No. 6 seed, vs. SMU

“The Fighting Irish have been among the nation’s most dominant teams over the past two-plus months, dating back to that brutal loss to Northern Illinois. I’ve spilled a lot of ink here arguing that Notre Dame now is a very different team from the one we saw on that fateful September day — but I no longer need to make that case, because the selection committee agrees with me already.

“Based on last week’s rankings, the Irish would be hosting a first-round game. But they could and should slide up after yet another dominant win, this time coming at Army’s expense. Over Notre Dame’s nine-game winning streak, the Irish have outscored opponents, 399-92. Over the course of the entire season, the Irish now have the best point differential in FBS (+301). Notre Dame has an elite defense and a great rushing attack.

“So many teams across college football have fluctuated week to week, leading to some of the crazy upsets we’ve seen this fall. But Notre Dame has been a consistent and reliable team that, since the NIU loss, hasn’t overlooked a single opponent. I trust the Irish.” — Auerbach

The Sporting News’ Bill Bender: No. 7 seed, vs. Tennessee

“Notre Dame dismantled undefeated Army 49-14 at Yankee Stadium. Jeremiyah Love (7-130, 2 TDs) led a rushing attack that piled up 273 yards, and the Irish did not have a turnover. The Irish have made just three of their last 10 field goals, which could be a problem in the playoff.

“The Volunteers cycled back into the 12-team field after the Ole Miss and Alabama losses. Tennessee beat UTEP 56-0, and Nico Iamaleava (17 of 23, 209 yards, 4 TDs) had his best game this year. If the Vols avoid an upset against Vanderbilt, then they would earn a trip to South Bend.”