Where Notre Dame’s blue-chip ratio stands with eight days until National Signing Day
The blue-chip ratio is the amount of four- and five-star prospects a school signs in a recruiting class. It’s not a complicated formula, but it’s one that paints a part of the picture about a recruiting class and is an interesting data point.
Notre Dame’s 2024 class currently ranks No. 10 according to the On3 Industry Ranking Football Team Recruiting Rankings. If the current ranking holds, it’ll be the first time the Irish have back-to-back-to-back top-10 classes since 2006-08.
Notre Dame’s blue-chip ratio, though, is not elite. It’s currently 16th best in the country at 56.52 percent.
The Irish have 23 commitments in the 2024 class. Notre Dame has a five-star receiver committed in Cam Williams and 12 verbals who rank as four-star prospects. The other 10 pledges are three-star players. Thus, Notre Dame’s blue-chip percentage is just under 57 percent.
Notre Dame’s 2023 class finished No. 10 in the recruiting rankings and was fifth best in the blue-chip ratio metric at 78.26 percent.
In looking back at Notre Dame’s last 10 recruiting classes, the Irish haven’t signed above a 79 percent blue-chip ratio since the 2013 class, which ranked No. 4 nationally that year and had a ratio of 87 percent.
That percentage could certainly change in the near future with Round Rock (Texas) cornerback Leonard Moore, Malvern (Pa.) Prep offensive lineman Peter Jones and Charlotte (N.C.) Catholic tight end Jack Larsen all being fringe four-star prospects. The blue-chip ratio at On3 is based on the Industry Ranking, a weighted average that utilizes all four major recruiting media companies. Any of the websites bumping up the Irish commits could result to them ending up four-star prospects, which would raise the blue-chip ratio.
Here are the top 10 schools nationally in blue-chip ratio for the 2024 class as of Dec. 11: Georgia (78.6%), Texas (75%), Ohio State (72.7%), Alabama (71.4%), Oregon (69.6%), Florida (65%), Texas A&M (68.7%), Florida State (68.2%), Auburn (63.2%) and Tennessee (63.2%).
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Here are the top 10 schools nationally in the Industry Ranking Football Team Recruiting Rankings, respectively: Georgia, Ohio State, Alabama, Florida State, Florida, Oregon, Miami, Texas, Oklahoma and Notre Dame.
Understanding On3’s team rankings system
The On3 Industry Team Recruiting Ranking utilizes all four major recruiting media companies: On3, 247Sports, Rivals and ESPN.
Instead of a total points system like at Rivals, the On3 Industry Team Ranking uses a score average of the player rankings, which solves the problem of varying class sizes during the recruiting cycle. It compiles the highest-rated commits for each team up to a total based on a rolling average of current total commitments among Power Five schools.
The current average number of commits used in the rankings score is 17. This means that of Notre Dame’s 23 commitments, only the 17 highest-ranked players are used for the rankings score.
To further explain that point: Notre Dame’s 23 commits have an average recruit rating of 90.73, but that is not the score used in the team ranking. Notre Dame’s top 17 commits are only being used in the On3 Industry Team Ranking, and the Irish’s score with that group is 91.752.
With this model, there are no bonus points for having more commitments than other teams, and only small deductions occur when a team has fewer commitments than the rolling average. Unlike distribution (bell) curves, this model doesn’t disproportionately weight a team’s top three or four highest-rated commits and is a more accurate representation of an entire class.
