How the Notre Dame defense earned a high score in ESPN returning production rankings

The high-water mark for Notre Dame in the nine seasons of ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly’s returning production rankings was its 2018 defense. That unit brought back 96 percent of its production from the 2017 season, the most of any FBS defense. Notre Dame turned it into a 12-0 record in the regular season and a defense that ended the year ranked 14th in yards per play.

The Tuesday release of Connelly’s initial 2023 returning production rankings didn’t give Notre Dame such heights on either side of the ball. But it did yield the Irish’s highest overall returning production ranking since the 2018 figure (No. 20).

Notre Dame is No. 44 in Connelly’s 2023 rankings, and like 2018, that’s buoyed by the defense. The Irish return 72 percent of their defensive production, which ranks 35th nationally. That’s according to a formula Connelly created, not merely a percentage of returning starters. Transfer additions are included in it.

Here’s a look at how Connelly determined the defensive returning production figure and the key additions and subtractions that factored into it. If you missed the examination of the offense’s returning production – ranked No. 67 – it’s here.

PROMOTION: Join for only $29.99 to unlock premium access of the best Notre Dame coverage in the market. This is a limited-time offer, so act fast!

The formula

Connelly’s exact formula changes by year, but has the same overall concept. On defense, he tracks the percentage of returning tackles, passes defended, tackles for loss and sacks and assigns a weight to each of them. Here’s how he weighed each category this year:

Percent of returning tackles: 70 percent

Percent of returning passes defensed: 14 percent

Percent of returning tackles for loss: 12 percent

Percent of returning sacks: 4 percent

Individually, Connelly wrote, “defensive backs make up about 46% of the defensive formula, while linebackers are at 40% and the defensive line is at 14%.”

Those weights are influenced by prior years’ data from his SP+ rankings – which has returning production as one component – and what positions proved to be the most important returners (or created the biggest holes by having fewer returners). They are not numbers Connelly randomly decides himself.

Notre Dame’s returning defensive personnel

High returning production rankings are often next to defenses with considerable offseason buzz. Notre Dame’s, though, is hardly being celebrated. The Irish were sound but not impactful in key areas last year, finishing tied for 98th in turnovers forced (15) and last in red-zone touchdown rate (79.41 percent). They were tied for 16th in sacks per game (2.92), but lost defensive end Isaiah Foskey (school-record 26.5 career sacks) to the NFL Draft.

The defensive line – the Irish’s best position on that side the last few years – has a lower degree of certainty than normal. Foskey and two other starters are gone, and unlike recent offseasons, the Irish have fewer backups who feel like safely projectable starters at this time.

Connelly’s returning production formula, though, dings teams for losing sack production less severely than it does for departures in other areas. In that context, losing 20 of the 38 sacks from 2022 is survivable. Furthermore, only two departing defensive linemen were among Notre Dame’s top 12 tacklers. Returning tackles are given the most weight. The Irish also added Ohio State grad transfer Javontae Jean-Baptiste (19 tackles, 4 sacks, 4.5 tackles for loss in 2022).

Among the defensive line returners is end Jordan Botelho, who finished second with 4.5 sacks. Tackle Rylie Mills’ 3.5 sacks were third. He and Botelho combined for 12.5 tackles for loss. Interior lineman Howard Cross III was Notre Dame’s ninth-leading tackler.

Notre Dame’s turnover in the more heavily weighted back end is minimal. The Irish bring back all three starting linebackers, both outside cornerbacks, the top two safeties in snaps played and pulled Oklahoma State defensive back Thomas Harper (seven starts in seven games, 30 tackles) out of the transfer portal.

Notre Dame has seven of its top 11 tacklers back for 2023, including its top four. The Irish totaled 34 passes defended last season, and 30 of those belong to players who are on the 2023 roster. Those are the two categories given the most weight in Connelly’s formula.