Staff predictions: Notre Dame football at North Carolina

Notre Dame heads back on the road for the first time since its season opener. The 1-2 Irish play at North Carolina (3-0, 0-0 ACC) Saturday afternoon (3:30 ET, ABC), the teams’ third meeting in as many seasons.

This one has the feel of a wild card. The Irish’s 1-2 start has given them an unpredictable feel. North Carolina has played three non-Power Five teams, totaling 154 points but allowing 15 touchdowns. The betting line on the game opened as a pick ’em, but has since shifted to Notre Dame as a 2-point underdog, per VegasInsider.

Notre Dame has won 24 straight regular-season games against ACC teams, including 11 in a row on the road. Can the Irish keep those streaks alive and climb back to .500? Here are the BlueandGold.com staff predictions.

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Patrick Engel: Notre Dame 30, North Carolina 27

North Carolina’s defense allowed 24 points to an FCS program that has scuffled offensively in two games since and a combined 89 to a pair of Sun Belt teams. That’s an inviting matchup for any opponent, even one with as many offensive issues as Notre Dame has.

The Irish should be capable of putting 30 on the Tar Heels and running the ball efficiently against a defensive front that hasn’t generated much disruption through three games. Prolonged struggles to move the ball and score points in this game would be real cause for concern.

Hitting the 30-point mark is only half the objective, though. The Tar Heels have scored at least 35 points in all three games. They have the firepower to outscore most teams. Notre Dame’s defensive line needs to deliver another dominant performance like it did against Cal. It has had its way with the Tar Heels’ offensive line the last two years, and that unit has put forth a bumpy first quarter of the season.

Tyler Horka: North Carolina 31, Notre Dame 27

North Carolina redshirt freshman quarterback Drake Maye has made sure there would not be a drop-off after the departure of Sam Howell. If anything, he’s been better with 11 touchdowns and 1 interception and 358.7 yards of total offense per game in his first three starts. Maye exceeding Howell’s production is scary for a Notre Dame defense that allowed Howell to rack up 442 yards of total offense in South Bend last year.

When games are as much of a tossup as this one (look at the betting lines; they haven’t gone more than a field goal in either team’s favor all week), it’s wise to look at which team has the better quarterback. Maye wins out over Notre Dame junior Drew Pyne, who made his first career start and only threw for 150 yards last week against Cal. 

That’s not all on Pyne. Maye has more weapons. North Carolina head coach Mack Brown unequivocally called wide receiver Josh Downs UNC’s best overall player. He’s coming back after missing the last two games with a knee injury. He caught 10 passes for 142 yards against Notre Dame last year. The Tar Heels have seven players who have caught at least seven passes this season. Downs is one of them, and he did that in one game. Notre Dame has three.

The Irish defense is better than any North Carolina has seen to this point, so that’ll keep the Heels in check. But it won’t be enough. It’s too much to ask of Pyne to compete with an offensive juggernaut operated by offensive coordinator Phil Longo in his first career road start. Carolina wins close. 

Todd Burlage: North Carolina 30, Notre Dame 24

Albeit against less competition, North Carolina averages 547.3 yards and 51.3 points per game, both top-5 marks in the country. Notre Dame’s offense averages 300.0 yards and 18.3 points a game, both bottom-20 marks in the country, so something has to give Saturday.

The Irish’s 11-game road win streak against ACC teams dates back to November 2017, when No. 7 Miami dropped No. 3 Notre Dame 41-8. North Carolina is 12-2 in homes games since the start of the 2020 season and plays Notre Dame off of a bye week. It’s hard to find a method for the Irish to score enough points to win this game, given a struggling offense and a second-string quarterback.

Mike Singer: Notre Dame 27, North Carolina 24

My prediction for this game is based in optimism, I will admit. After an abysmal start with five drives that didn’t include a single first down, Notre Dame offensive coordinator Tommy Rees dropped a couple F-bombs on Pyne, and then the junior quarterback responded by leading the offense to score on four of its next five drives.

If Notre Dame can play to that level offensively, I truly believe it will beat North Carolina. The Cal defense is far superior to the Tar Heels’ leaky back end, so Pyne and Co. should be able to move the ball, and this Irish defense is absolutely due for a couple turnovers. North Carolina has also played nobody, while Notre Dame has been tested.

Steve Downey: Notre Dame 34, North Carolina 31

With the Tar Heels’ continued defensive struggles, this has the makings of a “get right” game for the Fighting Irish offense. Yes, Appalachian State is a good Group of Five team, but it shouldn’t be putting 40 points on the board in the fourth quarter against a Power Five opponent, like it did vs. UNC Sept. 3.

The Irish offense started showing some signs of life against Cal, specifically a rushing attack that saw Audric Estime and Chris Tyree combine for 140 yards on 35 carries (4.0 yards per attempt). They should be able to build on that against North Carolina, which allowed 193.0 yards rushing per game and 4.7 yards per carry in three outings against lower-level competition.

The Notre Dame defense faces a stiff challenge containing Maye and an explosive Tar Heels offense, especially with Downs returning to action this week after missing two games due to injury. However, if the defensive line plays the way it did against the Golden Bears last week, the Irish should be able to slow down the Tar Heels enough to notch Notre Dame’s third straight win in Chapel Hill.