Over/under? Notre Dame vs. BYU statistical prop bet picks

Every Wednesday, BlueandGold.com beat writers Tyler Horka and Patrick Engel will take a look at three prop bets related to Notre Dame’s upcoming matchup and make decisions on them one way or the other. Here’s the Irish (2-2) vs. No. 16 BYU (4-1) version of this weekly series.

Over/under 160 yards rushing for Notre Dame

Tyler Horka: Over

You can’t tell me BYU is magically going to improve its rushing defense enough in 10 days to make life worse on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish than it did for the Utah State Aggies. The latter ran for 204 yards against BYU. The Irish might not get 200. Game flow and the circumstances of a game of this magnitude might tighten things up a bit. But I find it very hard to believe that Notre Dame won’t at least rush for 160 yards when the Cougars’ average yards allowed per game on the ground is 159.8.

Notre Dame isn’t going to try to change its identity, either. The Irish are going into the game wanting to run and believing that running the ball is the avenue to victory. They’re going into the game with a 287-yard performance against North Carolina fresh on their minds, even if that occurred 14 days prior. Sophomore Audric Estime and the rest of the corps are hungry for more. They’re going to get theirs against BYU.

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Patrick Engel: Over

BYU has allowed at least 120 yards on the ground in each of its first five games. Three of those opponents are Group of Five opponents. The last two – Wyoming and Utah State – rank outside the top 70 in yards per carry.

Middling rushing offenses can find space against BYU’s defensive front, which ranks 119th nationally in stuff rate (12.6 percent of runs) and 110th in opportunity rate (52.6 percent). If the last two weeks are any indication, Notre Dame’s run game operation is – at worst – good enough to win matchups against average or poor rushing defenses.

Even if Notre Dame doesn’t run at the efficiency level (6.3 yards per running back carry) or generate as many explosive runs (10 of 10-plus yards) as it did vs. North Carolina, it should surpass 160 yards on volume. The Irish want to run the ball every game. It’s important with a passing offense that’s still in a prove-it stage with backup quarterback Drew Pyne leading it.

Over/under 6.5 Notre Dame tackles for loss

Tyler Horka: Over

BYU has an athletic group of skill players. But doesn’t North Carolina, too? Notre Dame brought North Carolina ball carriers down behind the line of scrimmage 7.0 times. Notre Dame had 9.0 tackles for loss against Marshall and 8.0 against California, too. Maybe the odds say the Irish are due for another dud akin to the 2.0 TFLs accrued against Ohio State. But maybe the trend suggests it will continue. I’m leaning toward the latter.

BYU averages 5.2 TFLs allowed per game, good for 63rd nationally. Notre Dame has enough defensive pieces to get 1.5 more than that average to go over 6.5.

Patrick Engel: Over

Notre Dame has surpassed 7 TFLs in each of its last three games. I’ll take the Irish to hit that number once again. BYU’s offensive line is allowing sacks on 4.5 percent of dropbacks (50th in the FBS), which has equated to 1.4 sacks per game (tied for 36th). Maybe this won’t be the backfield party Notre Dame had against Cal, but the Irish should capitalize on a BYU offensive line that’s allowing a 22.1 percent run stuff rate so far (110th nationally).

But this isn’t only about BYU. It’s setting a weekly benchmark for a talented defensive line. This was the position viewed as the Irish’s best unit coming into the season (and has played like it the last two games). It brought back seven of the nine rotation players from a line that averaged 6.5 TFLs per game last year and tied the program’s sack record. Matching last year’s TFL per game output should be the expectation each week.

Over/under 19.5 touches for Notre Dame running back Chris Tyree

Tyler Horka: Under

You could make a case Notre Dame goes as Chris Tyree goes.

In the Irish’s two losses, Tyree averaged 6.0 touches per game for 32.5 yards from scrimmage and 0 touchdowns. In the Irish’s two wins, Tyree gone for 20.5 touches for 106 yards from scrimmage and 2 combined touchdowns. Follow the blueprint, and Tyree should go over 19.5 touches. But I’m going to say he goes under.

You cannot discount what Logan Diggs did in rushing 5 times for 50 yards and catching 3 passes for 65 yards and a touchdown. Those are eight touches that could easily go to Tyree, especially the receptions — two of which came on wheel routes, which are right up Tyree’s alley. Diggs has done enough to garner his looks. So has Estime, who ran 17 times for 134 yards and two scores against North Carolina. With so many mouths to feed, it’s going to be difficult for Tyree to get the ball 20 times in any game.

That’s not to say he can’t live in the 15-to-19 range. He can. And he probably should. But 20 is asking a lot.

Patrick Engel: Over

Notre Dame has seen firsthand the more Tyree is involved, the better its results on offense. He has totaled 41 touches in the Irish’s two wins. He’s an explosive playmaker in space, a versatile receiving threat and looks more powerful as a between-the-tackles runner than he has before.

Notre Dame found a way to get him 19 touches vs. North Carolina while still working Estime and Diggs into the game plan. That three-back rotation seemed natural and more effective than it was the first two weeks (Diggs was not available vs. California). It also further illustrated Notre Dame’s strength is its backfield and tight ends. The Irish’s best formula might be leaning into it more as a way of game-planning around an OK receiving corps.

Notre Dame is averaging 15.6 yards per pass on 15 throws in two-back sets this year, per Sports Info Solutions. It has called 13 runs in two-back sets. Seven of those run plays have come in the last two games and totaled 32 yards with 1 touchdown. Eleven of the 15 pass attempts in two-back sets are in the past two weeks. The Irish have found something with those plays and are calling them more often. There’s no reason to stop now. The more two-back sets, the easier it is to find touches for Tyree.

Between the two-back formations and a possibly run-heavy game plan, I’ll take Tyree to get to 20 touches for the second time in his career.