Notre Dame football score predictions: Cal vs. Fighting Irish staff picks

Notre Dame can’t afford another loss. It would officially become sky is falling territory in South Bend.

The Fighting Irish (0-2) host the California Bears (2-0) at 2:30 p.m. ET at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday. The Irish, still in search of head coach Marcus Freeman‘s first career victory, went to sleep Thursday night as 11-point favorites according to Vegas Insider.

Here’s how the staff at BlueandGold.com sees the game shaking out.

Tyler Horka: Notre Dame 21, Cal 20

Talk about just barely enough. But a win is a win.

Vegas Insider must not have had anyone in attendance at Notre Dame Stadium for the Irish’s loss to Marshall. The team was flat. The crowd was flat. And Notre Dame’s season flatlined just two weeks in.

And yet, it feels like there is a sense of rejuvenation in the Gug leading into the game against Cal. Junior quarterback Drew Pyne has been billed as the “perfect guy” to redirect Notre Dame’s season by offensive coordinator Tommy Rees. A veteran leadership contingent is fed up with losing and wants to give Freeman his first ever win as a head coach. And this thing just can’t continue to spiral, can it?

Obviously, given my projected scoreline, I don’t expect Notre Dame to explode out of its slump. This just isn’t the consensus top-five team it was pegged as in August. But the Irish are still going to do enough to stop the slide and somewhat right the ship. Betting lines be darned; all Notre Dame needs right now is a win. And the Irish are going to get one by the hair on Pyne’s preseason mustache.

Patrick Engel: Notre Dame 17, Cal 14

No, Notre Dame hasn’t shown much to make you believe it should beat a Pac-12 opponent after losing to a Sun Belt team, even if the betting lines still expect it. Everything feels up for grabs for a team missing its starting quarterback and lacking an identity on offense. This isn’t the layup game it felt like two weeks ago.

But it’s still one Notre Dame can win. The Irish won’t ask quarterback Pyne to be dynamic and carry the offense, but he has to make the right plays. Is that too much to ask for a junior backup who’s been involved in two straight quarterback competitions? It shouldn’t be. 

Cal has also allowed FCS program UC Davis and FBS pauper UNLV to average 5.0 yards per running back carry in its first two games. I’ll take this as a get-right game for the Notre Dame rushing operation where the Irish find just enough on the ground. An efficient but maybe not explosive offense should be enough to outdo an average Cal attack.

Mike Singer: Notre Dame 23, Cal 14

Notre Dame has scored 31 points through two games. Cal has allowed just 27 points through two games. The struggling Irish offense faces what should be a stingy Justin Wilcox-led defense. Still, Notre Dame should be the better side when both units are on the field, and on the flip side, I like the Irish defense over a Cal offense that posted just 20 points at home against UNLV.

I’ll take Notre Dame by nine points in what will be a gritty Fighting Irish win and the first under Freeman.

Todd D. Burlage: Notre Dame 24, Cal 17

With Notre Dame’s playoff hopes already shot, California isn’t a must-win from a post-season standpoint, but it certainly is from a Fighting Irish program perspective after the 26-21 loss to Marshall last week.

It’s been 15 years since the Irish (0-2) dropped consecutive home games to unranked teams in back-to-back weeks, but that’s what they’re up against. 

For Cal (2-0), it’s about finding some production in the running game to pull an upset. Over the last four seasons under Wilcox, the Bears are 15-1 when they reach 165 yards on the ground. Notre Dame ranks No. 113 nationally in rush defense after allowing 195.5 yards through its first two games. 

I erroneously believed Freeman’s first career victory would come against Marshall last week when Notre Dame was listed as a 20.5-point favorite. I’m going to recklessly presume again this week that Freeman gets it against Cal as an 11-point favorite. 

Steve Downey: Notre Dame 23, Cal 17

The Golden Bears lost five games by a touchdown or less en route to a 5-7 finish last season, but most of those defeats came at the hands of bad-to-mediocre teams. The lone exception was a 24-17 loss to a ranked Oregon squad. The 2-0 start this season includes a less-than-impressive 20-14 win over UNLV in Week 2.

With the way things have gone for the Fighting Irish so far in 2022, it was somewhat surprising that they still opened the week as a double-digit favorite against Cal. The Bears have former Purdue quarterback Jack Plummer operating their offense, and he played a solid game in the Boilermakers’ hard-fought 27-13 loss to the Irish at Notre Dame Stadium last year. In addition, Cal possesses some quality defensive talent — most notably safety Daniel Scott and linebacker Xavier Carlton — so this figures to be another close, low-scoring contest.

However, with their sense of urgency at an all-time high, I expect the Irish to find a way to finally get one in the win column.