Why Notre Dame made ESPN’s future offense, quarterback power rankings

The visions for Notre Dame’s offense as a top-flight unit are rooted in hope more than tangible evidence.

The Irish don’t have a quarterback who has started a college game. They have eight scholarship receivers, and none who eclipsed 400 yards last year. They lost a two-time 1,000-yard rusher.

That’s not to say there’s zero reason for hope, though.

Quarterback Tyler Buchner’s captivating freshman year audition is enough optimism fuel on its own, even if there were bumps. Open portions of spring practices have provided a glimpse of more consistency as a passer. Wide receiver Lorenzo Styles has future go-to target vibes. The list of the best tight ends in the country can reasonably start with Michael Mayer. Harry Hiestand’s return boosts expectations for the offensive line after a below-standard 2021 season.

PROMOTION: Sign up for just $1 for your first year at Blue & Gold

All told, that’s enough to land in the top 15 of ESPN’s future offense power rankings, a yearly exercise that tries to project college football’s best units on that side of the ball for the next three seasons. It’s based on players on the roster, commits and coaches. Quarterback stability or star power is a boost, but not the sole factor.

Notre Dame is 15th, which is one spot lower than its 2021 rank and five spots ahead of its place in ESPN’s future quarterback power rankings. The Irish’s skill position talent and offensive line fuel that placement as much as the potential with Buchner.

“The Irish lose a few offensive standouts – running back Kyren Williams, wide receiver Kevin Austin Jr. – and go through some transition at quarterback and on the coaching staff, but the overall outlook remains strong,” ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg wrote. “There’s excitement around the program to see what coordinator Tommy Rees does with more playcalling autonomy, and with a quarterback in Tyler Buchner who could elevate the entire unit.

More Notre Dame football:

• How Notre Dame DT Howard Cross III’s hands-on approach helps shove size concerns aside

• How Harry Hiestand is challenging Notre Dame OTs Joe Alt, Blake Fisher this spring

“Buchner and Drew Pyne are competing to see who likely will lead the offense through 2023. Whoever wins the job will be throwing to arguably the nation’s best tight end in Michael Mayer, who led the team with 71 receptions in 2021 and has 113 through two college seasons.”

That’s the 2022 prognosis. What about 2023 and beyond, which will likely not include Mayer? Styles is a rising sophomore and will be around for at least two more years. Same with offensive tackles Blake Fisher and Joe Alt, who ended their freshman years as starters. Notre Dame has five scholarship tight ends behind Mayer, and four are underclassmen.

Wide receiver beyond Styles remains the sticking point. The Irish signed one receiver in the 2022 class and currently have none committed in 2023. The ceiling for the 2023 receiver haul remains high, though, with several top targets uncommitted.

“Braden Lenzy and Avery Davis both return for a final season, but the continued development of sophomore Lorenzo Styles (24 receptions, 344 yards in 2021), sophomore Deion Colzie and others is essential,” Rittenberg wrote. “Notre Dame could also add Carnell Tate, ESPN’s No. 60 prospect in the 2023 class.”

Notre Dame’s future quarterback power ranking is down six spots from 2021, a drop primarily due to the lack of certainty around any option. The Irish broke in a new starter last offseason too, but Jack Coan brought 18 games of Big Ten starting experience and a Rose Bowl appearance when he transferred from Wisconsin. The four scholarship quarterbacks on the 2022 roster have played fewer than 300 combined snaps.

“If this were a one-year projection, Notre Dame might miss the cut,” Rittenberg wrote. “But the team has added enough young talent at quarterback to generate optimism about what lies ahead…Coan turned out to be a very solid addition following Ian Book, but many Notre Dame fans have been waiting for this moment, when Buchner potentially takes the reins.

“Used situationally as a true freshman, Buchner showed flashes of his playmaking ability, averaging 7.3 yards per carry with three rushing touchdowns.”

Buchner’s upside and likelihood of Notre Dame having the same starter for at least two years was enough to keep the Irish in the top 20 of the power rankings. Him reaching those heights and reliable options behind him should push them further. So could landing five-star Detroit King quarterback Dante Moore, the No. 9 overall player in the 2023 On3 Consensus. The On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine pegs Notre Dame as the favorite.

“Notre Dame also must build depth with incoming freshman Steve Angeli and others,” Rittenberg wrote. “ESPN rated Angeli, a New Jersey native, as the No. 8 pocket passer and No. 178 overall recruit in the 2022 class. Notre Dame’s 2023 recruiting under coach Marcus Freeman is off to a very good start, but the team has yet to secure a commitment from a quarterback.”