Where Notre Dame football ranks in first SP+ projections of 2024
Way-too-early top 25s are one thing. They’re subjective, and they’re all over the place. You can find them anywhere. And you can find Notre Dame ranked anywhere within them, too, from the top five to outside the top 15.
According to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, and as is generally the case, the likely truth lies somewhere in the middle.
Connelly came out with his first SP+ projections, a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, for the 2024 college football season on Wednesday. The SP+ weighs returning production, recent recruiting (including the transfer portal) and recent history to determine which teams are the best in the sport regardless of what pollsters say.
“These projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season,” Connelly wrote. “These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.”
Notre Dame checked in at No. 9. The entire SP+ top 25 is below.
2024 preseason SP+ projections
| TEAM | SP+ | OFF. SP+ | DEF. SP+ | ST SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Georgia | 34.5 | 46.9 (2) | 12.5 (5) | 0.7 (4) |
| 2. Ohio St. | 30.1 | 35.9 (20) | 5.8 (1) | 0.5 (20) |
| 3. Oregon | 29.3 | 47.2 (1) | 17.9 (15) | -0.2 (85) |
| 4. Texas | 28.7 | 44.6 (5) | 15.9 (10) | 0.5 (17) |
| 5. Michigan | 27.0 | 32.9 (32) | 5.9 (2) | 0.6 (7) |
| 6. Alabama | 26.6 | 42.3 (7) | 15.7 (8) | 0.7 (2) |
| 7. Penn St. | 25.6 | 36.1 (18) | 10.6 (4) | 0.4 (28) |
| 8. Ole Miss | 25.2 | 43.1 (6) | 18.0 (16) | 0.5 (26) |
| 9. Notre Dame | 24.1 | 39.8 (10) | 15.7 (9) | 0.2 (53) |
| 10. LSU | 23.5 | 46.2 (3) | 22.7 (34) | -0.1 (83) |
| 11. Missouri | 21.8 | 41.0 (8) | 19.2 (24) | 0.3 (45) |
| 12. Florida St. | 20.0 | 36.0 (19) | 16.0 (11) | 0.6 (8) |
| 13. Texas A&M | 19.0 | 38.1 (12) | 19.1 (23) | 0.0 (73) |
| 14. Oklahoma | 18.9 | 37.4 (14) | 18.5 (19) | -0.3 (95) |
| 15. Tennessee | 18.4 | 35.8 (22) | 17.3 (13) | 0.2 (52) |
| 16. Clemson | 18.0 | 36.6 (15) | 18.6 (20) | 0.1 (66) |
| 17. Utah | 16.4 | 32.8 (33) | 16.4 (12) | 0.4 (34) |
| 18. Kansas St. | 14.4 | 33.9 (28) | 19.5 (25) | -0.3 (91) |
| 19. Arizona | 14.4 | 39.4 (11) | 25.0 (45) | 0.0 (79) |
| 20. Oklahoma St. | 13.1 | 37.8 (13) | 24.7 (41) | 0.3 (42) |
| 21. Miami | 12.3 | 36.2 (17) | 23.9 (38) | 0.7 (3) |
| 22. Iowa St. | 11.7 | 30.1 (46) | 18.3 (18) | 0.4 (37) |
| 23. USC | 11.5 | 44.7 (4) | 33.2 (98) | -0.4 (100) |
| 24. Louisville | 11.4 | 30.5 (44) | 19.1 (21) | 0.1 (64) |
| 25. Wisconsin | 11.0 | 24.8 (78) | 13.8 (7) | 0.4 (29) |
