Why Notre Dame will rush for 200-plus yards for a fourth game in a row

Notre Dame is 104-10 since 1996 when it rushes for 200-plus yards. That includes a 5-0 mark in 2022.

The Irish are trying to rush for 200-plus yards in four consecutive games for the first time since 2017. They’ll have to do it against a Navy team that has only allowed 88.0 rushing yards per game this season.

Two BlueandGold.com beat writers discuss below if Notre Dame can top 200 in a weekly segment dissecting game-related over/under prop bets.

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Over/under 166 rushing yards for Navy

Tyler Horka: Under

Navy has the No. 7 rushing offense in the country. But Navy has not played a defense like Notre Dame’s.

Sure, you can point to Air Force’s No. 9 total defense at 274.9 yards per game. But those numbers are heavily influenced by two factors; Air Force’s weak strength of schedule and the Falcons’ No. 1 ranking nationally in time of possession.

Cincinnati is a better comparison for Notre Dame’s defense. The Bearcats have the No. 22 total defense in the country. Notre Dame is just below that at No. 25. Cincy only allowed Navy to muster a total of 176 rushing yards last week. I like Notre Dame to do a first down’s length and change better than that and hold the Midshipmen to below 166 rushing yards.

Patrick Engel: Under

This is a bold prediction, since Navy usually reaches 200 on volume alone. The Midshipmen are averaging 237 yards per game despite one of their least efficient rushing attacks of the last decade. They have hit 176 yards in all but one game this year and 166 in all but two games since the start of 2021.

But those two exceptions lead me to why I’ll go lower. Both were against Air Force, a triple-option team that controlled the ball, won time of possession and held Navy below 3.4 yards per carry each time. Notre Dame has the run-heavy offense, the stabilized run defense and experience against the option to execute the same blueprint.

Navy reached 166 yards on Notre Dame last year while holding the ball for 34:33. I’ll take the Irish to win time of possession and out-Navy Navy.

Over/under 200 rushing yards for Notre Dame

Tyler Horka: Over

Hammer the over. Smash it like an Audric Estime stiff-arm.

Notre Dame knows who it is and knows what it can excel at offensively. The Irish are going to continue to run the ball no matter who they’re up against. If they can run wild on Clemson’s corps of next-level defensive linemen, then they can do it against undersized Midshipmen who can’t do anything about 300-plus pound offensive linemen paving the way for a 227-pound bruiser of a back and two of his closest friends.

This will mark the first time since 2017 that Notre Dame rushes for at least 200 yards in four consecutive games. Write it in Sharpie.

Patrick Engel: Over

I’d say this is a layup, but I thought the same thing against a poor Stanford run defense last month. Still, I’m taking the over.

Notre Dame hung 263 rushing yards on a Clemson front seven with a few future early round NFL draft picks. It has topped 200 in five of the last six games. The Stanford loss is the exception in that trend, but the Irish still averaged 5.1 yards per non-sack carry in that game.

Navy’s defense has been strong against the run and creating havoc, but largely against below-average run games and poor offensive lines. The Midshipmen haven’t seen anything like Notre Dame’s run game this year. And Notre Dame hasn’t been this committed to the run or reliant on the run in a while.

Over/under: 0.5 blocked punts for Notre Dame

Tyler Horka: Under

The fun answer is over. The logical answer is under. I’ll go with the latter.

There’s a reason there has been such a hysteria surrounding what Notre Dame has been able to do in blocking punts in four straight games and leading the country with six total in nine games this season. It’s unheard of. It just does not happen.

All good things must come to an end at some point, even if it’s only a temporary halt. Notre Dame will have three more games beyond this one to block another kick. I like the Irish’s chances considering how relentless they’ve been in getting to the ball. One game without doing so does not signify the permanent end to success in this area. Even if the Irish do not block a punt as I predict, they’ll almost assuredly come close. That usually affects field position.

Patrick Engel: Under

This has to end soon simply out of law of averages, right? That’s what I thought last week. Then Notre Dame blocked Clemson’s first punt. But I’ll still take the under, just because going five straight games with a punt block is hard to envision, even for a Brian Mason unit. One block vs. Navy would be six in a seven-game span and seven on the year. There have been 12 teams in the last 10 years to exceed six blocks in an entire season.

I don’t think Notre Dame has thrown its last party in the punt backfield. But the streak ends at four games before the Irish send one back later in the year. That’s not to say nothing good happens on punt block and returns. Navy knows Notre Dame comes after punts. The punter will be thinking about it all game. I’ll take at least one Navy punt to be rushed and travel less than 35 yards (excluding ones that are intentionally short).

Navy has not allowed a blocked punt this year. But neither had Clemson or Syracuse before facing Notre Dame. Stanford’s only block punt this year has come against Notre Dame. Marshall and UNLV have allowed one blocked punt each to an opponent other than the Irish. Notre Dame has a way of finding holes in punt units that the opponents don’t see. Mason seems to scout opponents better than they scout themselves.