Over/under? Cal vs. Notre Dame football statistical prop bet analysis

Notre Dame is on game week No. 3. Every Wednesday, BlueandGold.com beat writers Tyler Horka and Patrick Engel will float a few statistical props related to the Irish’s upcoming matchup and make their picks on them one way or the other.

Here’s the California (2-0) at Notre Dame (0-2) version of this weekly series.

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Will Drew Pyne attempt more than 30 passes in his first start?

Engel: Over.

This feels like a spot where Notre Dame leans into the quick passing game as an easy way to stay ahead of the chains. The Irish have skill players like wide receiver Lorenzo Styles, tight end Michael Mayer and running back Chris Tyree who excel after the catch. Notre Dame is looking for anything that works on offense right now. Getting those three the ball in the open field works.

The quick passing game will require Pyne to throw the ball a lot, albeit not far downfield. I’ll go over on the 30 attempts, but with a more modest yards per pass. If he goes under 30, that would likely mean the Irish found a more consistent ground attack against a Cal defense that has allowed 5.0 yards per running back carry the first two weeks to an FCS team (UC Davis) and a perennial FBS bottomfeeder (UNLV).

Horka: Over.

Even in a pass-happy scheme last year, starting quarterback Jack Coan only attempted more than 30 passes five times. But if he would have completed the games against Wisconsin, Cincinnati and Virginia Tech, then that would have likely been eight. Including Pyne’s attempts against the Badgers and Bearcats and Tyler Buchner’s against the Hokies and Navy, Notre Dame threw the ball at least 30 times as a team in nine of 13 games last season.

This Notre Dame running game is not what the coaching staff thought it would be. Even in Pyne’s first career start, he’s going to be asked to carry a heavy load. While that’s not reassuring considering the Irish wide receivers’ inability to get involved in the passing game, it’s still reality. Pyne is comfortable letting it rip, results be darned. He attempted 30 passes in 2021 in what equated to just shy of a full game in adding up the two halves he played in. 

Everything points to this being another game in which Notre Dame is going to have to move the ball through the air to win. The Irish could even be trailing late again, making that scenario even more likely. Pyne will be slinging the rock, for better or worse.

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Will Chris Tyree reach double-digit touches?

Engel: Over.

Marcus Freeman said Notre Dame has to ride the hot hand in its three-back rotation if one emerges. Tyree, in limited duty, has been that. Time to get him the ball more often. Just plain often, really.

Tyree hasn’t had many chances, with five carries and three catches through two weeks, but he has made the most of them (45 rushing yards, 20 receiving yards). For his career, he’s averaging 5.5 yards per carry and 9.8 yards per catch. He’s the backfield’s best home run threat. The offense is in dire need of home-run plays. Featuring Tyree as a receiver usually means quarterback-friendly throws. That sounds like a good idea for a quarterback making his first start.

Notre Dame likes its three running backs and doesn’t have to phase one out to make another a clear lead back. Tyree’s production and explosiveness, though, should take priority for an offense hungry for points. I’ll peg this as the week Notre Dame leans into him a bit more.

Horka: Over.

This is the week is has to happen. If Notre Dame loses again and it happens without Tyree going over double-digit touches, it could be grounds for offensive coordinator Tommy Rees to not be invited on the team plane headed for North Carolina. 

Rees said Tuesday that the Notre Dame staff has all the confidence in the world in Tyree. Good things happen with the ball in his hands. The Irish so desperately need another player not named Michael Mayer who is 1) confident and 2) a proven commodity. Why can’t Tyree be that guy? Kyren Williams and turf toe are not holding him back in 2022. 

Tyree is averaging five yards per carry (nine rushes, 45 yards). The next best average among Notre Dame running backs is Audric Estime’s 2.8. He’s carried 10 more times than Tyree, so those are 10 more opportunities to get stymied behind an offensive line that isn’t clicking in the early going. But something screams “Tyree wouldn’t be averaging 2.8 yards per carry on 10 carries,” so it’s time to find out. Give him the ball and let him go to work. 

Will Isaiah Foskey record at least 0.5 sacks?

Engel: Over.

Foskey’s first sack last week was a step in the right direction, but it came in a game where he was otherwise quiet (zero pressures outside of that sack) and Marshall left him one-on-one with a tight end.

All told, the Irish defense line delivered another supbar performance against Marshall. It’s still too talented a unit not to rebound eventually.

I’ll take that rebound to start against Cal, and that will include a Foskey sack where he beats an offensive lineman. Cal left tackle Ben Coleman has already surrendered two sacks and five pressures, per Pro Football Focus. The right tackle combination of Brayden Rohme and T.J. Session has combined to allow one sack and eight pressures.

Horka: Over.

Cal ranks tied for No. 100 nationally with 6.0 sacks allowed through two games. That doesn’t mean Notre Dame is going to continue the trend and come away with three sacks Saturday, but the Irish have a decent shot for this to be the defensive line breakout game. Foskey would almost certainly be a part of that. 

He finally registered his first sack of 2022 last weekend, so maybe that’ll warm him up and get the monkey off his back. He’s too good to be this quiet. There isn’t any more flying under the radar with poor play allowed, either. Foskey came back to school with intent to win a national title. That’s almost assuredly not happening. The least he could do is chase Justin Tuck’s sack record. That’s not happening at the current rate either. 

But he flips a switch this weekend and gets at least a sack, maybe two.