Will Notre Dame freshman quarterback Steve Angeli make his debut vs. Stanford?
It’s that time of the week for Notre Dame football prop bet analysis. Two BlueandGold.com Fighting Irish beat writers give their takes on pressing props on Notre Dame’s upcoming game. This week, they look at three over/under numbers concerning the Irish’s home game against the Stanford Cardinal.
Over/under 0.5 snaps for Notre Dame true freshman quarterback Steve Angeli?
Tyler Horka: Over
It’s peanut butter Angeli time Saturday in South Bend.
Offensive coordinator Tommy Rees said he wanted it to happen at North Carolina, but that game tightened up too much at the end for it to manifest. This one won’t. Notre Dame is a 17-point home favorite, and the Irish have beaten the Cardinal by an average of 24.3 points during the current three-game winning streak in the series. This 1-4 Stanford team might be worse than any of those others, too. This matchup screams garbage time reps for the first-year signal caller.
Patrick Engel: Under
I’m sticking to my prediction to be revealed Friday, and though I foresee a comfortable Notre Dame win, I’m not sure it’s enough to get Angeli in the game. Notre Dame didn’t put him in for the final few snaps of a 12-point win over North Carolina. I think the Irish win by more than 12, but not by four scores.
Maybe Angeli has grown enough between then and now to earn some mop-up reps in a game that’s all but decided but not a total laugher. Maybe Notre Dame puts all the pieces together and dusts Stanford wire-to-wire. I think he will see his first official snaps this month, but I’ll stop short of saying this week.
Over/under 1.5 turnovers for the Notre Dame defense?
Tyler Horka: Over
This is it. This is the week.
Notre Dame is trending in the right direction, even if it is taking baby steps. The Irish have two turnovers in the last two games, a fumble against North Carolina and an interception against BYU. They also forced two fumbles against the Cougars. Stanford has lost eight fumbles this season. Notre Dame is bound to get the ball out and actually fall on it at least once.
In total, only six teams have turned the ball over more times than Stanford (13) this season. Those are the Virginias, Louisiana Techs, South Carolinas, UTEPs, Northwesterns and Utah States of the world. Concerning company, by and large. Notre Dame will be good for a fumble recovery and an interception. And maybe even more. They come in bunches, right?
Patrick Engel: Over
Notre Dame did the right things to generate multiple takeaways last week vs. BYU, even though it only ended the game with one (an interception on the first play). The Irish pressured BYU quarterback Jaren Hall into a poor throw on Bracy’s interception. They forced their first two fumbles of the year, but didn’t recover either, which is luck more than anything else.
I like Notre Dame’s defensive line to put steady pressure on Stanford quarterback Tanner McKee when facing a weak Cardinal offensive line that ranks 119th in sack rate. There should be hurried throws and sacks. The forced fumble emphasis finally paid off last week after four empty games. I don’t think the BYU game will prove to be a mirage on that front. Stanford has also lost 8 fumbles this year. Between the pressure chances, sacks and the Cardinal’s trouble holding onto the ball, I see this as Notre Dame’s first multi-takeaway game of the year.
Over/under 3.5 touches for Notre Dame wide receiver Braden Lenzy?
Tyler Horka: Over
Admittedly, I’m taking the Lenzy leap here.
He’s been an afterthought in the Notre Dame offense in terms of production. He has nine touches in five games so far in 2022. But he has not been an afterthought in the mind of Rees, who said this week he’s been hard on himself for not designing ways to get Lenzy the ball. Was it coach speak? Perhaps. But is could there be something to it? For sure.
Lenzy has played more snaps (287) than any Notre Dame skill player not named junior tight end Michael Mayer. He has run 146 receiving routes but has only been targeted 20 times. If Rees wants to dial up something for his fifth-year graduate student, and it sure sounds like he wants to, then this could be the week against a floundering Stanford defense.
Look for one of those Lenzy end-arounds to make it to where he only has to catch three passes to hit the over, too. Sophomore wide receiver Jayden Thomas caught three passes against BYU after catching three in the first four games. If he can do it, Lenzy can too.
Patrick Engel: Under
Lenzy has produced a four-touch game just four times since the start of the 2021 season, and all of those were last year. One of those games was against Stanford, when he caught 4 passes for 49 yards and a touchdown last November, but a repeat opponent isn’t enough for me to take the plunge.
The last three games have created a sense that Notre Dame knows what it is. The Irish want to run the ball and mix that with an efficient passing offense that leans into Mayer, its running backs and No. 1 wide receiver Lorenzo Styles. That has worked in recent weeks. There’s no reason to go away from it now.
Mayer will still command a heavy target share. Rees has found creative ways to involve the running backs and Styles. The run game won’t disappear, especially if Notre Dame is playing with a lead like it should for much of the game vs. Stanford. That has left Lenzy on the periphery. He has four touches over the last two weeks despite playing 127 snaps.
Rees said Tuesday he wants to involve Lenzy more and that Lenzy has earned more targets, but going from 4 touches over two games to 4 in a single game is a big leap.
