Over/under? Marshall vs. Notre Dame football statistical prop bet analysis

It’s another Notre Dame football game week. Every Wednesday, BlueandGold.com beat writers Tyler Horka and Patrick Engel will take a look at three to five prop bets related to the Irish’s upcoming matchup. They’ll make decisions on them one way or the other.

Here’s the Marshall (1-0) at No. 8 Notre Dame (0-1) version of this weekly series.

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Will Marshall have over/under 150 rushing yards?

Tyler Horka: Under.

Let’s get this out of the way: Marshall ran for 380 yards last week without No. 1 running back Rasheen Ali, who is taking time away from the game for personal matters. Two Thundering Herd backs, Ethan Payne and former Florida State five-star signee Khalan Laborn, went over 100 yards each. Payne had 113. Laborn had 102. They also both entered the end zone twice apiece.

But that was against Norfolk State. This is Notre Dame.

Before Ohio State dedicated itself to running the ball with two talented backs in the second half of the season opener, Notre Dame looked like a stingy group against the ground game. The Buckeyes’ backs averaged over six yards per carry, but Payne and Laborn won’t have such success in the Irish’s home opener. Ohio State was credited for 172 rushing yards by game’s end.

Patrick Engel: Under.

Notre Dame’s run defense was humbled last week when Ohio State chewed up nearly half the final quarter with its ground game. The Buckeyes marched 95 yards by handing off to 225-pound bowling ball Miyan Williams and Heisman candidate TreVeyon Henderson, both of whom found big running lanes and ran through tackles.

It was a surprising letdown from the Irish’s best position group. It’s also not something Marshall’s personnel likely can replicate against Notre Dame. The Herd don’t have someone with Williams’ power or Henderson’s all-around skill set – or a line capable of pushing the Irish defensive front around.

Combine that with Marshall likely playing from behind in the second half and therein leaning into the pass game, and Notre Dame should keep the Herd below 150.

Will Notre Dame wide receivers combine for over/under 8.5 catches?

Tyler Horka: Over.

Last week, it was three. So this is a projection of tripling that production at the least. Seems like a big ask, but tripling three is much easier than tripling five.

Notre Dame offensive coordinator Tommy Rees doesn’t need to hear the critics to watch the film and be a critic of his own. His run-first game plan did not lend itself to wide receiver action. That’s not going to be the case against Marshall. Sure, Notre Dame still wants to run. But this is as good of a game as any to prove the Irish can throw it around a little when they want to.

Lorenzo Styles will get the Notre Dame wideouts halfway to the number with four or five catches. Braden Lenzy could have two or three. Jayden Thomas will have his first catch of the season, at least. Marshall’s top receiver had eight catches alone in the season opener. It shouldn’t be trouble to expect one more than that from the entire Notre Dame position group, as thin as it may be.

Patrick Engel: Under.

That’s not to forecast a repeat of last week, which felt like an outlier even in its disappointment. The Irish ran just 48 plays and leaned hard into trying to run the ball and control possession. That’s not likely to be the approach this week, or even the rest of the season.

But this is still a thin receiver group. Furthermore, the Irish went under 8.5 catches from a similarly shallow unit in two of their final three regular-season games last year. Those were convincing wins where Notre Dame ran the ball well, fed tight end Michael Mayer and bled the clock in the fourth quarter.

A similar script playing out this week feels more than plausible. Notre Dame wants to get its run game right after a bumpy debut at Ohio State. Mayer will be a mismatch, as always. And unless things go sideways, the Irish shouldn’t need to throw much in the fourth quarter.

Will Notre Dame quarterback Tyler Buchner have over/under 2.5 touchdown passes?

Tyler Horka: Under.

He’s going to have two, and he’s going to run for another.

If you figure Notre Dame will score five touchdowns and win in the high 30s to low 40s to whatever Marshall puts on the board against a stout Notre Dame defense, how many of those five is it fair to ask Buchner to account for? Three is an optimistic but not too burdening bet.

After not accounting for any touchdowns against Ohio State, Buchner generating two passing scores and an end zone entrance on the ground would be welcomed by Irish fans.

Patrick Engel: Over.

I like Notre Dame to score five touchdowns, and I’ll take Buchner to throw three of those. To stay consistent with the above answer, I’ll say one is to Mayer and another is to a running back. 

Buchner may not throw a lot of passes or even play all four quarters, but this is still a chance to build his confidence. Letting him throw in the red zone and seeing multiple touchdown passes on his stat line should help in that area. This game also feels ripe for a big catch-and-run from the Irish’s best open-field weapons that turns into a touchdown. Think a Chris Tyree screen or a Styles intermediate route where he evades the defender (like he did on his 54-yard catch last week).

Will Notre Dame wide receiver Tobias Merriweather play over/under 5.5 snaps?

Tyler Horka: Under.

Notre Dame will do enough offensively early to not warrant the services of a player who could not work his way onto the field at Ohio State. And when it’s time for reserves to play in what many expect to be a lopsided game come the fourth quarter, a Notre Dame three-and-out would only give Merriweather three plays.

Former walk-on Matt Salerno is Notre Dame’s No. 4 wide receiver with Deion Colzie and Joe Wilkins Jr. coming back from injuries. He only played eight snaps at Ohio State. This is obviously a totally different opponent and the game is at home, but Merriweather is still a ways away from being a contributor. Garbage time reps could go to Colzie and Wilkins Jr. if they’re healthy before Merriweather.

Patrick Engel: Over.

On paper, this is a good situation to get Merriweather his first game action, even if that’s just a few plays in mop-up duty. Don’t rule out a look before then, though. Merriweather had a high equity bar to clear for making his college debut in Week 1 against a top-five team on the road. Even if he’s still progressing, the trust level needed to get a few snaps against a Sun Belt team in the first half is lower than it was last week against Ohio State.