Notre Dame football score predictions: Fighting Irish vs. Penn State national picks

DANIA BEACH, Fla. — Blue & Gold found predictions for the Orange Bowl from eight pundits across six national outlets. Six of them picked Notre Dame to beat Penn State.

Of the six writers from BlueWhite Illustrated, On3’s Penn State site, though, only one picked Notre Dame to take down the Nittany Lions. That’s to be expected. Five of six of us at Blue & Gold picked the Fighting Irish.

Here’s who’s picking who from around the country.

Bleacher Report: Notre Dame 24, Penn State 19

David Kenyon: If you yearn for the glory days of the run-first offenses and physical defenses, the Orange Bowl is a dream matchup.

Notre Dame is second nationally at 6.1 yards per carry, and Penn State isn’t far behind behind in 17th with 5.3 per attempt. Additionally, both teams have top-10 units in yards allowed per play (and per game) and scoring defense.

This is not quite smashmouth football, but it’s in the neighborhood.

Given that context, a low-scoring game is a logical expectation—which, because I said that, expect a 45-40 barn-burner.

Seriously, if the defenses play as anticipated, the result will be decided at the margins; in particular, think red-zone efficiency and turnovers. Penn State has a slight edge in the former, while ND is more adept at creating takeaways. This clash is essentially a statistical wash.

I’m leaning toward Notre Dame because of a more versatile rushing attack with quarterback Riley Leonard, but I wouldn’t blink if you prefer Penn State in such an even game.

Sporting News: Notre Dame 23, Penn State 20

Bill Bender: The Irish are 4-0-1 ATS when favored by seven points or less this season. The Nittany Lions are in an underdog role – where they are 0-6 S/U and 1-5 ATS since 2022. Turnovers will be the key, and we think the Irish will win that battle and squeak out a victory, perhaps on a walk-off field goal by Mitch Jeter. 

Pro Football Focus

Max Chadwick: Penn State 21, Notre Dame 20
This game should be a rock fight as the defenses dominate while both offenses look to establish the run. When each team needs their quarterback to make a big-time throw, I trust Drew Allar to do so more than Riley Leonard. The Nittany Lions take down the Fighting Irish and advance to their first national championship game in program history.

Dalton Wasserman: Notre Dame 23, Penn State 20
Notre Dame managed its way through the Georgia game with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price combining for just 56 yards. Penn State is arguably the least worrisome of the run defenses the Fighting Irish have faced in this playoff, especially with their tackling issues. They also continue to prove they are the best man coverage team in the nation. I’ll take them in a close game as they earn their first national title berth since 2012.

On3

Ari Wasserman: Notre Dame
Notre Dame and Penn State are both very similar teams. They have reliable quarterbacks, really good running backs and nasty defenses. Though James Franklin is far more experienced as a head coach, both coaches are also in the CFP semifinals for the first time and looking to take their program to new heights for the first time in decades. It has been impressive to watch Notre Dame overcome injuries to stay really good and it’s been awesome to watch Penn State use Tyler Warren to ascend to new heights. This is a really hard game to pick, but Notre Dame’s win over Georgia is more impressive than anything the Nittany Lions have done this year. I’m going to lean on that as important information, pick Notre Dame and get ready to potentially be wrong.

Andy Staples: Penn State
I called Notre Dame-Georgia a Spider-Man Meme game because of the striking similarities between those two teams, but Penn State also is constructed similarly. The biggest difference between Penn State and the Georgia team Notre Dame just vanquished probably is offensive X-factor Tyler Warren. The Nittany Lions tight end can do everything, and he’s capable of making catches no one on the Notre Dame or Georgia roster can make. Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter posted a photo of Darth Vader in a Bacta tank to indicate that he’ll be healthy for this game. Do we know if Carter has seen Return of the Jedi to learn whether Vader wins or loses? No spoilers. For Notre Dame, the health of tailback Jeremiyah Love is a major question mark. He limped off the field Thursday and told Blue and Gold’s Tyler Horka that he “tweaked” his knee just as he did in the USC game. He’ll only have six days to recover this time. But Notre Dame has shown all season that it has the depth to deal with injuries. This one really feels like a toss-up, though under 46.5 feels solid.

Joel Klatt (Fox Sports): Notre Dame 24, Penn State 20

Klatt: Ultimately, I think this game will be tight. So, who do I trust? I trust Freeman and the Fighting Irish more. Situationally, Notre Dame understands how to perform and execute. It also knows its strengths and leans into them. That’s my biggest hang-up with Penn State. The Nittany Lions haven’t played to their strengths in the biggest moments at times this year.

Will Backus, CBS Sports: Notre Dame

Backus: It seems like, at some point, all of the injuries will catch up to Notre Dame. The Irish are in an especially precarious position if Love can’t play given what he means to the offense. Yet, Notre Dame has more than made do with its lot as the Irish have continued carving a path of dominance all the way through the postseason against teams deemed by the selection committee as worthy of playing for a national championship. Notre Dame’s played dominant along the lines of scrimmage, and it has a proven winner at quarterback in Riley Leonard, who has literally put his body on the line to keep his team’s hopes alive. I’m not going to pick against the Irish at this point; they’ve shown no signs of slowing down.

BlueWhite Illustrated (On3 network)

Nate Bauer: Penn State 26, Notre Dame 20
Special teams play, penalties, explosive plays, and turnovers are the elements that can figure most prominently into games with evenly matched teams. In nearly every area, that’s what this game is shaping up to be.

Sean Fitz: Penn State 26, Notre Dame 23
These two teams largely mirror one another, so it wouldn’t be a shock if this one came down to kickers. Ryan Barker has been good since taking over for Penn State, while Notre Dame’s Mitch Jeter — a question mark all year — made three big kicks last week. It should be a fun one in Miami Gardens.

Thomas Frank Carr: Penn State 31, Notre Dame 27
Notre Dame represents the first team on equal footing with Penn State from a talent and play perspective. Each team has strengths and weaknesses that could manifest in multiple outcomes. If Penn State’s offense plays a complete game, that side will win. If Notre Dame’s defense and run game can control the flow of play, the Irish can find their way to a national championship.

But even then, if Penn State plays a standard game, with intermittent big plays on offense, frustrating inconsistency, and sustained defensive drives ending in field goals, it can win this game.

So, let’s flip a coin because that’s truly how it feels.

I lied about flipping a coin in my head; I’m picking Penn State.

Matt Herb: Notre Dame 24, Penn State 20
You look at the stats, and these are two evenly matched opponents. They’ve both got injury problems, with key players such as Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love and Penn State defensive end Abdul Carter likely to be limited, if they’re available at all. This feels like the kind of game that could come down to a turnover or two, and it’s hard to ignore the success the Irish have had in that area all year long.

Greg Pickel: Penn State 24, Notre Dame 20
There have been some tough games to pick this season. But, none of them were as difficult as this one. Notre Dame and Penn State are very similar teams. They each have terrific defenses and offenses that prefer to move the ball on the ground. Both have major player question marks, too, as no one knows if Lions All-American Abdul Carter will play, and the same goes for Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love. The outlook for both teams changes significantly if either is out. We’ll assume though that both are available.

All told, Penn State has a rest edge, a better passing attack, and a better pass rush. That leads to a narrow win on Thursday night.

Ryan Snyder: Penn State 24, Notre Dame 20
I think this game will come down to Andy Kotelnicki vs. Al Golden. I also believe that Penn State has been tested a bit more than Notre Dame throughout the entire season. Those learning opportunities will prove to be key.