Notre Dame football score predictions: Irish vs. Ohio State title game national picks

Give the national experts this: Most of them believe No. 7 Notre Dame has a path to victory in the national championship.

That path involves dragging No. 8 Ohio State into a slugfest, the likes of which the Buckeyes haven’t seen since their stunning Week 14 loss to Michigan. Combine that with a timely turnover or big play on special teams — something the Irish have been known to create — and Notre Dame could reach the mountain top for the first time since 1988.

That being said, every national prediction Blue & Gold found believes the Irish will wind up just short of their ultimate goal. Here are the expert picks, with one more day until the title game.

On3 (Andy Staples): Ohio State 21, Notre Dame 17

“If this was the Notre Dame team that started the season, this spread wouldn’t be so big. Plug cornerback Benjamin Morrison and defensive tackle Rylie Mills into the Fighting Irish defense, and you probably feel better about Notre Dame’s chances of slowing the Buckeyes.

“Notre Dame has done incredible job overcoming injuries, but getting thinner has left the Irish with a really narrow path to victory. That path is this: Suck the Buckeyes into a slugfest the way Michigan (successfully) did and Nebraska (ultimately unsuccessfully) did. Force Ohio State to think it needs to establish the run, and hold the ball for as long as possible to keep the Buckeyes’ offense out of sync.

“Even if Notre Dame can do that, it still might not be enough. As the 75-yard TreVeyon Henderson screen pass touchdown against Texas showed, Ohio State can hit an explosive play at any time. 

“Notre Dame’s best hope is to try to batter Ohio State on the ground with Riley Leonard and Jeremiyah Love and to try to contain Jeremiah Smith when Ohio State has the ball. Texas managed to limit Smith, but Ohio State found success throwing to the backs and also got points from its defense on the Jack Sawyer scoop-and-score that sealed the win.

“Ohio State’s defense could eliminate any possibility for Notre Dame. The Silver Bullets have been the most dominant unit in this playoff, and it’s difficult to imagine them suddenly giving up a lot of points when they’ve already shut down more dynamic offenses than Notre Dame’s.” — Staples

On3 (Ari Wasserman): Ohio State 38, Notre Dame 17

“It’s not that Notre Dame doesn’t have a chance to win. Maybe all of the pre-game talking points about “team of destiny” and “Marcus Freeman being locked in” will actually play out. But when I break down this game, I see two teams. One is a super-team peaking at the right time. The other is a really talented team that has had a great season, but doesn’t quite have enough good players to match up with the other.

“Ohio State is the super team in this scenario. Yes, the Buckeyes lost to Oregon earlier in the season. And yes, Ohio State got embarrassed by a bad Michigan team on its home field in November. Anyone paying attention, however, has seen an entirely new Ryan Day and Ohio State during this College Football Playoff run. That Ohio State — the superteam playing well and on its own terms – isn’t losing to anyone this year. 

“We can quibble about what the final score is going to be. There is a big city with a bunch of bright lights that was built in Nevada from people being wrong. When it comes down to it, though, Ohio State has an absurdly good offense and the best defense in college football, one that has gotten overlooked during the Jeremiah Smith frenzy. 

“I think Ohio State is going to score early in this game. I think Notre Dame is going to struggle to score at all. And as the game continues and Ohio State builds on the lead, the Buckeyes are going to pull away.” — Wasserman

Bleacher Report: Ohio State 24, Notre Dame 17

“The basic qualifier is that turnovers can alter the course of a game in a hurry. Notre Dame is the underdog, but no defense has created more takeaways than the Fighting Irish this season. That matters. However, it also means ND’s offense must protect the ball.

“Unfortunately for the Fighting Irish, avoiding that crushing giveaway may be complicated against an OSU defensive line built to create havoc. Leonard has struggled immensely in those situations. According to PFF data, he averages 3.8 yards per attempt when pressured — one of the worst marks in the country.

“Notre Dame’s defense bailed out Leonard’s two interceptions against Penn State and should be a thorn for Howard and the Buckeyes. I’m certainly not anticipating a lopsided game. Unless the Irish can swing the game with a takeaway, though, Ohio State should be celebrating a national title.” — David Kenyon

Sporting News: Ohio State 27, Notre Dame 17

“Both teams averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry in the last meeting, and neither team committed a turnover. Offensive coordinators Chip Kelly and Mike Denbrock would both take that, but it would still favor Ohio State. Notre Dame is going to have to rip several pages from Michigan’s game plan and get a few huge plays in special teams to have a chance to pull this upset.  It just looks like this Ohio State team has learned from those mistakes.

“It might be tight at halftime, but the third-quarter TD drive by Ohio State will give the necessary breathing room, and a TD pass from Howard to Smith will help build a 10-point lead the Buckeyes keep en route to winning Day’s first national championship with the school.” — Bill Bender

Pro Football Focus (Max Chadwick): Buckeyes 28, Fighting Irish 17

“The Buckeyes are finally looking like the best team in the country like their roster indicated they would be, which is why I picked them to win the national championship in the preseason. Ohio State’s defense once again shines as it slows down the Fighting Irish’s rushing attack while Will Howard and company make some big plays against Notre Dame’s defense that often puts its defensive backs on islands.

“The Buckeyes won the first national championship in the four-team era a decade ago, and they win the first national title of the 12-team era this year.” — Chadwick

Pro Football Focus (Dalton Wasserman): Buckeyes 31, Fighting Irish 17

“It’s extremely hard to pick against Ohio State with the way the Buckeyes have been playing. Unless Notre Dame runs the ball in a significantly more efficient manner, I think they could have a tough time putting drives together. Notre Dame’s likely path to success is elite coverage and forcing multiple turnovers, but this Buckeyes team carries too much talent and too many obstacles for the Fighting Irish to overcome.” — Wasserman

CBS Sports: All nine experts pick Ohio State

Dennis Dodd, Chip Patterson, Tom Fornelli, Shehan Jeyarajah, David Cobb, Will Backus, Jerry Palm, Brandon Marcello and Cameron Salerno all have the Buckeyes defeating the Irish. The smallest Ohio State margin of victory among the CBS Sports writers is 7 points (Dodd and Marcello), while the largest is 18 (Jeyarajah).