Will Notre Dame QB Drew Pyne return to pinpoint passing accuracy vs. Syracuse?

Every week, two BlueandGold.com Notre Dame football beat writers take a look at three over/under scenarios for the Fighting Irish’s upcoming game. Here are their answers for this week’s props.

Over/under 64% passing for Notre Dame quarterback Drew Pyne?

Tyler Horka: Over

Time for a bounce-back game.

Syracuse ranks 99th in the FBS in opponent completion percentage (63.6%). Pyne’s season-long completion percentage is 63.7%, and that’s including the last two clunkers in which he completed 48.1% of his passes vs. Stanford and 50% of his passes vs. UNLV.

Pyne is clearly trending downward from where he was with 3 games in a row with a completion percentage greater than 70 against California, North Carolina and BYU. But the law of averages says he’s somewhere in the middle of the 74.1% completion percentage he had in that trio of matchups and the 49.1% mark he has put up in the last two weeks.

This game is in a dome. It’s against a friendly passing defense. He knows the world is watching to see if he’ll improve, and he’s got the type of competitive juices that allow a player to rise to the occasion in those situations. He’s going to get right to a degree Saturday whether the Irish win or lose.

Patrick Engel: Under

There might not be a statistical oddity that defines Notre Dame’s season more than this one. Pyne’s season completion rate is 63.7 percent, but he has either been under 60 or over 70 in every game this year. He can rise to the level of outplaying dynamic North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye…or struggle to the point where the Irish score 14 points against a woeful Stanford defense.

Syracuse’s season completion percentage allowed is 63.6. The Orange have been somewhat volatile, with three games at 58.1 percent or below and three at 69 or above.

But those three those high completion rate games were the first three weeks of the year. This is a Syracuse pass defense trending in the right direction that just flustered Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei to the point where he was benched. Pyne, meanwhile, has had ball placement issues the last two weeks. I’m not sure the JMA Wireless Dome is the place where he sharply turns it around.

Over/under 3.5 catches for Notre Dame wide receiver Lorenzo Styles?

Tyler Horka: Under

Styles has not posted at least 4 catches in a single game since he had 5 against North Carolina on Sept. 24. That’s also the only game in which he caught a touchdown so far this season.

That 30-yard score against the Tar Heels is a distant memory, and it’s because plays like the drop he had on a perfect pass from Pyne on third down against UNLV are more available in the memory banks of Notre Dame fans.

I expect Styles to come up with a couple catches against Syracuse. He might even get into the end zone again or perform in a pressure-packed moment. But outside of 7 catches for 69 yards against Marshall and 5 catches for 69 yards against UNC, he has not proven to be a reliable volume receiver.

Notre Dame offensive coordinator Tommy Rees is looking for more.

“I got to do a better job of putting him in spots to make those plays,” Rees said. “We don’t lose any trust over a drop. That’s not the case. We’re going to continue to target him. I told him that. Hey, we got you in man coverage with a safety? That’s a look we want. We’re going to continue to find ways to do that. We trust you’re going to go make the play.

“I think there are ways to get him in the game earlier, get him going, get him feeling good. When he’s in the mindset, he can be really, really great. I’ve let him down by not getting him going early in games to get him into that groove.”

Patrick Engel: Over

Styles had just 4 catches the past two weeks, but not for lack of targets. Pyne has thrown his way 10 times in that span.

Styles has one drop each of the last two weeks. Pyne has flat-out misfired when targeting him a couple times. This hasn’t been the sophomore season Style or Notre Dame envisioned, but he is still the Irish’s best wide receiver and capable of producing big plays. I don’t see the targets drying up. I’ll take the catch rate to improve enough to give him 4 receptions against Syracuse

Over/under: 1.5 turnovers for the Notre Dame offense?

Tyler Horka: Over

It’s been feast or famine for the Syracuse defense in generating turnovers. The Orange have forced 2 or more in four games. But they’ve come away with 1 or less in the three other matchups.

Here’s the kicker: They’re coming off their best performance of the year in this category.

Syracuse turned Clemson over 4 times on 2 fumbles and 2 interceptions. Clemson had previously turned the ball over 4 times in 7 games. It’s an “orange-out” for Syracuse fans inside JMA Dome on Saturday. The place is going to be rocking as much as the venue and the normally basketball-crazed fans will allow it to be.

Pyne has well-documented accuracy issues of late. Sophomore running back Audric Estime has a fumbling problem. Notre Dame is going to cough up the ball a couple times in a rowdy atmosphere.

Patrick Engel: Under

Sign me up for some regression to the mean of fumble luck on both sides. Notre Dame has fumbled six times in the last five games and lost five of them. Syracuse has forced six fumbles this year and recovered six. The Irish’s fumble luck has hurt them. The Orange’s has helped – and helped mask a so-so forced fumble rate (0.86 per game is tied for 49th). I’ll take this as the week both trends revert toward the mean. 

For all of Pyne’s ups and downs this season, interceptions and reckless decision-making haven’t been a consistent problem. He has thrown just three picks this year and has not tossed more than one in a game. (He was fortunate a UNLV defender dropped one last week, but his lone interception vs. the Rebels was a tipped ball at the line of scrimmage). Notre Dame snaps its two-game streak of multiple giveaways.