Notre Dame football score predictions: UNLV vs. Fighting Irish staff picks

If there was ever a time for a get-right game for Notre Dame, it would be this week against a struggling Mountain West foe that might be without two of its most important players due to injury. The Fighting Irish (3-3) host a UNLV (4-3) team that has lost its last two games by a combined score of 82-14 Saturday at 2:30 p.m. ET (Peacock).

Here are the BlueandGold.com staff picks.

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Tyler Horka: Notre Dame 38, UNLV 10

There’s an all right offense hidden somewhere under those gold helmets. It showed itself on the road at North Carolina and even at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas against BYU. Notre Dame was a couple blown red zone opportunities away from blowing out the Cougars in the Shamrock Series.

That offense has yet to appear at Notre Dame Stadium.

In three games in South Bend, the Irish have averaged 19.7 points. I like them to double that this weekend against a UNLV defense that allowed 40 points to San Jose State and 42 to Air Force in the last two weeks. There is no reason Notre Dame cannot right the offensive ship against a floundering Rebels defense.

There could be some hiccups along the way Saturday, sure. Notre Dame has proven it is anything but immune to them. But this has the makings of the Irish’s first blowout victory of the season, especially if UNLV starting quarterback Doug Brumfield (concussion) and running back Aidan Robbins (knee) cannot play.

Patrick Engel: Notre Dame 34, UNLV 7

We’ve learned to be wary of assuming anything after the first half of Notre Dame’s season. Easy games haven’t just been hard, they have turned into losses (Stanford and Marshall). The Irish have delivered when expectations weren’t as high (North Carolina and California, sort of). So I’m going out on a limb here just based on Notre Dame’s wild card nature.

But there’s no better spot for Notre Dame to put together four complete quarters. The Irish have a clearer identity rooted in a steadier run game than the last time they played a Group of Five opponent at home. The rushing total vs. Stanford (160) wasn’t great, but the underlying numbers are better. Notre Dame averaged a season-high 3.2 yards before contact per carry. Remove sacks and the end-around that lost 8 yards, and the yards per carry jumps to 5.7.

Then there’s UNLV, which could be without Brumfield and Robbins. What does that look like? The Rebels lost 42-7 to Air Force without Brumfield and with Robbins out most of the game. They fell to San Jose State 40-7 the week before when Brumfield left due to injury. Even if Notre Dame’s offense is at less than peak form, it shouldn’t have to do much work to outscore UNLV.

Mike Singer: Notre Dame 41, UNLV 14

Don’t let recency bias of Notre Dame’s poor outing get in the way of your thinking for this game, folks. The Fighting Irish stunk last week — no doubt about it. But this Notre Dame team will be the far superior squad on the field Saturday afternoon. UNLV has been blown out in back-to-back games against average teams. The Irish will bounce back in a big way.

Todd Burlage: Notre Dame 40, UNLV 20

At the halfway post of its 2022 regular season, Notre Dame (3-3) has still managed only 10 points off of a nation’s worst 2 takeaways and ranks tied for 120th with a -1.00 turnover margin.

Conversely, UNLV (4-3) has excelled in the turnover categories. Its +0.5 turnover margin rates 31st in the country, though it’s a rating that drastically dropped from No. 9 after Air Force won the turnover battle with the Rebels 4-0 last Saturday. 

Third-year UNLV head coach Marcus Arroyo has made great strides with his program after it compiled only a 2-16 record during his first two seasons in Las Vegas. Becoming bowl eligible remains the goal for Arroyo and his Rebels this season. 

Achieving that mission would be impressive for a program that’s recorded six wins only once in the last 18 seasons. UNLV also hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2013 and it hasn’t won one since 2000.

Steve Downey: Notre Dame 37, UNLV 0

The Rebels were the surprise team in the Mountain West through five weeks with a 4-1 start, already exceeding their 3.5 win total set by Vegas coming into the season. However, they have come crashing back to earth with 40-7 and 42-7 losses to league foes San Jose State and Air Force, respectively. This is, after all, a program that has produced just two winning records in the last 27 seasons. A sustainable rebuild will take time for Arroyo.

On paper, this is a game the Fighting Irish should dominate — but we saw how that worked out with Marshall and Stanford. It has been difficult to get a finger on the pulse of this team, which has played its best against the best teams on its schedule and has been at its worst against the worst. If they can’t take care of business against UNLV, though, their issues may be way worse then we ever imagined.

Like Marshall, UNLV has successfully mined the transfer portal, most notably landing Robbins (Louisville) and top receiver Ricky White (Michigan State). Unlike Marshall, though, they don’t posses the strength in the trenches to match up with the Irish. Notre Dame should be able to win this game with relative ease, especially if UNLV sophomore quarterback Doug Brumfield (concussion) is unable to play.

Season-long records

Tyler Horka: 3-3 straight up, 2-4 against the spread

Patrick Engel: 4-2, 3-3

Mike Singer: 4-2, 3-3

Todd Burlage: 3-3, 2-4

Steve Downey: 4-2, 3-3