Where Notre Dame stands in projected NCAA Tournament brackets as March begins

March is here.

Notre Dame enters college basketball’s pivotal month in position to achieve the gotta-have-it goal it set last year: Make the NCAA Tournament.

The Irish are 21-8 overall and 14-4 in the ACC, have won 18 of their last 22 games and need one more victory to wrap up the No. 2 seed in the conference tournament. Even head coach Mike Brey, with a little prodding, vouched for his team’s worthiness no matter what happens before the bracket is revealed in 12 days. This week’s focus, though, is on their slim but not impossible chance of winning a share of the ACC regular-season title.

“We’ve handled our business,” Brey said after Saturday’s win over Georgia Tech. “As much as we’ve chased Selection Sunday since last year’s Selection Sunday, we’re in a race for the regular-season title and that has kept us in the here and now — not projections and bracketology. But we have a hell of a résumé. That’s all I’ll say.”

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Notre Dame’s body of work may not be loaded with high-end wins — the Irish have beaten just three of BracketMatrix’s projected NCAA Tournament teams — but it’s still enough to be safety projected in the NCAA Tournament field as March begins. BracketMatrix — a compilation of 119 projections — has Notre Dame as the second No. 10 seed. Here’s a look at where the Irish stand in some notable mock brackets and bubble watches.

ESPN

Joe Lunardi’s latest bracket, released Tuesday, has Notre Dame as a No. 8 seed in the South Region, playing No. 9 Murray State in a first-round game in Fort Worth, Texas. The No. 1 seed in that pod is Baylor.

CBS Sports

Jerry Palm’s Tuesday morning projections have Notre Dame as a No. 9 seed in the West Region, matched up with No. 8 Boise State (currently the Mountain West leader) in the first round in Portland, Ore. Palm’s No. 1 seed in the West is Gonzaga.

USA Today Sports

USA Today’s latest bracket, published Monday, has Notre Dame as the No. 9 seed in the Midwest Region. Its first-round matchup is against No. 9 TCU in San Diego, with Arizona as the corresponding No. 1 seed.

On3

Eric Prisbell slotted Notre Dame as a No. 10 in his latest seed list, which was updated Tuesday. The Irish are the first No. 10 seed in his projections.

Sporting News

Bill Bender’s most recent seed list, released Tuesday, is among the balmiest projections for Notre Dame. He has the Irish as the first No. 8 seed, noting the “Irish’s rankings have improved despite a 5-7 record against Quad 1 and Quad 2.”

The Athletic

This was released before Notre Dame beat Georgia Tech Saturday, but a Quad 4 victory has little bearing on a résumé (the NET ranking bump into the 40s it caused is more notable). Brian Bennett’s most recent Bracket Watch, published Feb. 25, has Notre Dame as the Midwest Region’s No. 10 seed and playing No. 7 Colorado State in a first-round matchup in Indianapolis.

The Athletic Bubble Watch

Eamonn Brennan upgraded Notre Dame from “work to do” to “should be in” in his weekly Bubble Watch, which updated Tuesday. The Irish and Wake Forest are the ACC’s “should be in” teams, while Duke is the league’s lone lock.

“The Irish are very close to the finish line,” Brennan wrote. “It is a strange season in which you can amass 14 ACC victories and just one against a potential tournament and/or Quadrant 1 opponent (at Miami), but ND got something neither Wake nor UNC did in the nonconference: a marquee victory over a top team, in this case Kentucky.

“Throw in the really solid work in league play, the capacity to beat teams you should beat pretty much every time you take the court, and Notre Dame has found itself with a solid resume that should pretty comfortably get it in the field provided nothing goes horribly awry against Florida State and Pittsburgh (the latter at home) this week.”

ESPN Bubble Watch

John Gasaway also pegged Notre Dame as “should be in” — along with Wake Forest — in his latest Bubble Watch, released Tuesday.

“Late in the Fighting Irish’s blowout win at home over Georgia Tech, the student section started a cheer directed at Notre Dame first-year star Blake Wesley: ‘One more year! One more year!’ Wesley is projected by ESPN.com as the No. 30 pick in the 2022 draft, so he will indeed have a decision to make,” Gasaway wrote. “In the meantime, his team has won seven of its past eight games and is expected to earn a No. 9 or 10 seed.

“Notre Dame has taken care of the ball all season, but this 7-1 run has witnessed the return of the ‘usual’ Irish offense that hits shots from both sides of the arc.”

Notre Dame quick facts

Record: 21-8, 14-4 ACC

NET ranking: 46

KenPom ranking: 47

Highest team sheet metric: T-Rank (No. 38)

Lowest team sheet metric: KPI (No. 55)

Strength of schedule: 66

Strength of record: 30

Quadrant 1 record: 2-6

Quadrant 2 record: 3-1

Quadrant 3 record: 10-1

Quadrant 4 record: 5-0

Non-Division I record: 1-0