Why a win at Florida State would be especially meaningful for Notre Dame

Notre Dame can see its preseason goals just around the corner.

No one on the Irish roster has gone to the NCAA Tournament. Well, this group is a win or two away from all but locking up a bid. They’ve never not played on the first night of the ACC Tournament, but are one victory from securing the No. 2 seed, which comes with a double bye. They’re still mathematically alive for a share of the regular-season title.

These are the big-picture measurements of success for the 2021-22 Irish, who understood a year ago as they watched the NCAA Tournament selection show from head coach Mike Brey’s house they needed to appear in next season’s bracket. They might celebrate their increasingly likely inclusion there this year. It will be a demon exorcised and a statement the program is pointed back in the right direction.

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But that’s still 11 days away. There’s a conference tournament to tackle before then. And before that, there’s another chance at notching a first — a win at Florida State. It wouldn’t just be a first for this roster, but for Brey and for the program. The Donald L. Tucker Civic Center has been a house of horrors and almost-had-its for Notre Dame. And you can bet it was discussed this week in advance of the Irish’s Wednesday visit there (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2). Never mind that it would be an important win for NCAA Tournament résumé purposes. This is about the here and now.

“I did tell our guys when we were watching film that we’ve never won there,” Brey said. “Ever. I don’t care about bracketology or double byes — we’ve never won in Tallahassee. We’ve played our butts off a couple times. How about we try and get one in Tallahassee? That has been our message this week.”

Notre Dame is winless in five trips to Florida State, all of them since joining the ACC in 2013-14. Three of them were one-possession games. Another was a seven-point loss. The most recent was an 85-84 defeat on Jan. 25, 2020 that ended with three missed potential go-ahead shots in the final 16 seconds and led to Brey sending a $20,000 check to the league office for a postgame tirade blasting the officiating.

“If I can walk out of there and not owe the ACC any money, that’d be a huge win,” Brey said. “I can guarantee you I’ll mentally put myself in a trance two minutes before the game.”

This iteration of Florida State isn’t as potent as the others that beat the Fighting Irish in Tallahassee. The Seminoles (15-13, 8-10 ACC) have the ACC’s No. 11-rated offense and defense in league play, per KenPom. They’re playing out the string of a season shipwrecked by injuries to several starters.

Senior Malik Osborne (10.0 points per game) is out for the year. Leading scorer Caleb Mills (12.7) is likely to miss another game due to the ankle injury he suffered Feb. 12, head coach Leonard Hamilton told reporters Tuesday. Anthony Polite (9.7) has not played since Jan. 29 due to a wrist issue, though Hamilton said there’s a small chance he could return Wednesday. Naheem McLeod, a 7-4 center who started five games, is out for the season as well.

Florida State may be depleted, but this game still sits on Notre Dame’s schedule like an unmarked police car waiting to nab a speeder. The Seminoles picked off then-No. 6 Duke in overtime Jan. 18 and NCAA Tournament hopeful Miami Jan. 11. Even with the injuries, they remain one of the longer and more athletic teams in the league.

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“You can’t really run offense,” Brey said. “You just have to be a basketball player, because they switch everything. The last time we played [on the road], we didn’t do a good job of keeping Wake Forest out of the lane and off the backboard. When we’ve done that, especially on the road, we’ve gotten off to good starts. They’re similar body types to Wake — driving you, on the backboard, athletic.”

Notre Dame heads in to this one, though, with ample reasons to be confident. The Irish are 18-4 following a 73-57 loss at Boston College Dec. 3. They have won five of their last six road games. Playing away from home has brought out an edge and crispness. They have held a double-digit lead in each of their last seven road games.

“I just like going to an away crowd,” senior guard Prentiss Hubb said. “It’s just the energy.”

Notre Dame (21-8, 14-4 ACC) at Florida State (15-13, 8-10)

When: Wednesday, March 2 at 7 p.m. ET

Where: Donald L. Tucker Civic Center, Tallahassee, Fla.

TV: ESPN2

Radio: Notre Dame basketball radio network

Line: Notre Dame -1.5

KenPom prediction: Notre Dame 70, Florida State 68

Series history: Florida State leads 7-5

Last meeting: Notre Dame won 83-73 on March 6, 2021

Leading scorers:

• Notre Dame: guard Blake Wesley (14.7 points per game), guard Dane Goodwin (14.4)

• Florida State (at current health): guard Matthew Cleveland (11.4), guard RayQuan Evans (8.1)

Other notes:

• This game is a Quadrant 2 opportunity for Notre Dame, and a win would push the Irish’s record to 6-7 in the first two Quadrants.

• Notre Dame can wrap up the No. 2 seed in the ACC Tournament with a victory and keep itself alive for a share of the ACC regular-season title. For the latter to happen, North Carolina needs to beat Duke on Saturday.

• Notre Dame guard Cormac Ryan is shooting 40.2 percent on three-pointers in ACC play and has averaged 11.3 points in six games since moving into the starting lineup. In that span, he has grabbed at least six rebounds three times and handed out three or more assists four times.

• Florida State is shooting just 46.2 percent on two-point baskets in ACC play, which is 14th out of 15 teams in the league. For the season, the Seminoles are 225th in two-point accuracy.