Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer a top-10 player on Mel Kiper's big board – What's his outlook for being drafted that high?

ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr. had Notre Dame’s Kyle Hamilton as his top-ranked safety from his debut 2022 NFL Draft big board to his final one. Tight end Michael Mayer has crossed off the first step in following suit as Kiper’s top-ranked player at his position in 2023.

Mayer is the No. 1 tight end and No. 7 overall player on Kiper’s first 2023 big board, released Tuesday. He’s the only tight end among Kiper’s top 25 prospects. He looked like a potential three-and-done draft pick as a freshman in 2020. His sophomore output (71 catches, 840 yards, seven touchdowns) only increased that likelihood. Another year like it would make passing on the 2023 draft just about impossible to envision.

Mayer’s overall landing spot is more noteworthy than his standing as the top tight end in initial 2023 positional rankings. The latter was a lock. Where it might put him overall was less clear. What does it mean? Kiper view him as not just a tight end commodity, but a top-end prospect regardless of position.

PROMOTION: Sign up for just $1 for your first year at Blue & Gold

“NFL teams want tight ends who can stretch the deep middle of the field — and block well enough to line up next to offensive tackles,” Kiper wrote. “That’s Mayer, who can be a force in the red zone. Linebackers simply can’t cover him (and safeties struggle with his size). Mayer has a wide catch radius and could produce as a pass-catcher in the NFL. He’s a complete tight end.”

That sounds like a top-seven player. But can Mayer really be selected seventh overall – or even in the top 10? The question is worth asking because of the lack of value teams place on drafting tight ends that high.

The same idea eventually arose with Hamilton and contributed to him going No. 14, even though many draft analysts ranked him as a top-10 prospect. (Based on how Ravens head coach John Harbaugh greeted Hamilton on a pre-draft visit, maybe he viewed the Notre Dame safety as a top 10 player too). Just two safeties were top-10 picks from 2012-22.

Tight ends are rarely among the first 10 picks, though they appear there a little more often than safeties. Kyle Pitts was the fourth overall selection in 2021. T.J. Hockenson went eighth in 2019. Eric Ebron was the No. 10 pick in 2014. There’s precedent in the not-too-distant past. And Mayer feels like a safe bet to be a productive pro with a high floor.

Tight ends taken in the top-10, though, are high-upside playmakers and elite athletes with college track record of explosive plays. That’s what teams usually seek when drafting any pass-catcher early in the first round. Pitts ran a 4.44 40 at his pro day at 6-5 and 245 pounds. Ebron ran a 4.6 at the NFL Combine and had top-end acceleration after the catch. Hockenson’s 4.7 40 isn’t a head-turning time for a tight end, but he averaged 14.8 yards per catch in his college career. Other NFL Combine drills highlighted his elite athleticism.

RELATED: Notre Dame football recruiting

• Preview: Notre Dame football Lineman’s Challenge camp

• Four-star Notre Dame safety commit Peyton Bowen gives the latest

None of this is to knock Mayer as a prospect or diminish what he has done through two seasons. He’s a mismatch on underneath and intermediate routes. He’s a pain to tackle. He’s a near-automatic conversion if he catches a pass on third or fourth down. He has grown into a strong blocker.

He has also not topped 11.8 yards per catch or 5.2 yards after catch per reception in a season. Hockenson’s best single-season YAC per reception in college was 7.3, for reference. He has four career catches on passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield. Pitts had 10 in 2020 alone (though Hockenson had just five in his career).

Mayer can strengthen his top-10 case by displaying another level of downfield ability and after-catch skills. One of his spring emphases was “route depth,” which he said is more about separating before the catch than adding more vertical patterns. How he fares in the combine testing drills will matter too.

Other Notre Dame players in Kiper’s rankings

Defensive end Isaiah Foskey is the No. 19 overall player on Kiper’s board. He’s ranked as an outside linebacker – where he’s the No. 2 prospect behind Army’s Andre Carter II. Elsewhere, Jarrett Patterson is the No. 2 center and Brandon Joseph is the No. 2 safety. Both have appeared in the first round in the earliest 2023 mock drafts.

“Foskey leveled up down the stretch in 2021, and he’s an intriguing outside linebacker/defensive end combo in this class,” Kiper wrote. “He’s still developing his technique, but he has a solid spin move and can beat offensive tackles with power. Will Foskey show more polish this season? I think he could take another leap.”