Could Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton fall in the first round? Why NFL Draft analysts think it's possible

Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton’s 4.59-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine led more draft analysts to defend him as a top-five prospect than jettison him from that status.

The popular refrains? It was one test result in an overall positive day. Safety 40 times aren’t critical. The most common one was some version of, “Trust the tape.” ESPN draft analysts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay each pegged Hamilton as the No. 2 overall pick in their post-combine mocks.

A 4.56 40 at Notre Dame pro day March 25 seemed like it would knock down concerns. A few days later, though, reports surfaced that NFL scouts timed his pro day 40 in the low 4.7s.

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That ought to raise an eyebrow. Only five linebackers ran 4.7 or lower at the combine. Nine defensive ends clocked a sub-4.7. Discussion of a drop from the top five and possibly the top 10 is crescendoing.

“His testing numbers combined with a knee injury that ended his season and his positional value as a safety has many folks in the league saying that he won’t be drafted in the top five picks,” ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller wrote.

“Hamilton is my No. 3 overall player and a prospect I’ve loved since his freshman season. He’s a great leader and playmaker, but he was already fighting a battle at a non-premium position in the eyes of NFL evaluators. It’s possible he falls all the way into the second half of Round 1. Now, it takes only one team to change that, but the consensus around the league is that a drop is expected.”

Even McShay – who recently called Hamilton a “pterodactyl” and a “4.4 guy in my mind” –admitted to the possibility Thursday on a conference call with reporters. He’s not ruling out his previously projected landing spot for Hamilton, but sees it as shakier.

That’s not only due to the reported 4.7 40, but his position. For a team to take a safety in the top five, he has to be a dominant player and overcome positional value skepticism. Only three safeties have gone in the top five since 1991. Just 10 have become top-10 picks in that span. McShay thinks it’s possible a landing spot between No. 6 and the middle of the first round might still be Hamilton’s outlook if his 4.56 official pro day time matched that of the NFL evaluators in attendance.

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“I think there’s a really good chance Kyle Hamilton could go No. 2 to the Detroit Lions,” McShay said. “But if he doesn’t…the fact is, the safety position has more value than it did in years past, but it’s still not quarterback, edge rusher, tackle, wide receiver and corner. To me, those are the premier positions in the National Football League. I think there’s a chance that some teams could wind up passing on him.”

McShay dropped Hamilton’s Scouts Inc. grade from a 94 to a 93, but still has him as a top-five player in the draft. Only three other players have 93 grades and just one has a 94. None has a grade of 95 or above to earn McShay’s “Tier 1 prospect” status, which he reserves for “immediate NFL starters [who] project as perennial All-Pro players” and are worth a top-five pick.

Quarterback and eventual No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence was McShay’s only Tier 1 player last year. Defensive end Chase Young, the No. 2 overall pick, was the lone Tier 1 talent in 2020. Those two were consensus top-two prospects who play premium positions.

Hamilton is one of nine Tier 2 prospects, which are “a notch below the elite class but still considered a plug-and-play NFL starter with high-level potential.” McShay considers them worthy of top-15 pick. Even with a better combine or pro day 40 time, he might not have pushed Hamilton to 95 and Tier 1.

“Before the combine, I had him at 94 and dropped him slightly,” McShay wrote. “That was based on an expectation he’d run a sub-4.5 time. But I talked to a scout who had his pro-day 40 time at 4.7, which is obviously even worse than the already middling 4.59 we saw at the combine. I don’t see it on tape, though, and think he plays much faster than that.

“Tier 1 wouldn’t have been out of the question if he had dominated in the pre-draft process, but I still think I’d have him as one of the best Tier 2 guys.”