What to make of Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton’s NFL Draft outlook as first round nears

Former Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton, like everyone else, can only guess about his future NFL home.

The 2022 NFL Draft’s twists and turns have spared nobody. There’s no consensus on the top quarterback, when that player will go or how many of his kind will go in Round 1. There’s not even a clear No. 1 selection despite the draft starting in less than 48 hours. Hamilton, once a widely projected top-five pick, can google his name followed by the words “mock draft” and find projections of him anywhere between second overall and the low 20s.

Those are, though, the extreme ends. A mid-to-high first-round selection is a tighter expected range than most other prospects. Even if his wait will be short, he’s still totally in the dark. Visits with several teams picking in the top 15 haven’t added much clarity.

“At the end of the day, I have no clue,” Hamilton said Tuesday on The Rich Eisen Show. “That’s the funny part. It’s like you’re watching the season finale to a Netflix show that’s the pre-draft process.”

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Nobody’s draft process is predictable or comes without ebbs and flows. Not even a player like Hamilton who looked like a three-and-out first-round pick from his first training camp practice until his final game at Notre Dame last October — and is still safely projected to go there Thursday night.

Hamilton resided in the top five of most mock drafts from the way-to-early versions last May until the pre-NFL Combine ones in February. Several from this winter slotted him as the No. 2 overall pick to the Detroit Lions. All the clichés came his way. Rare breed. Freak. Game-changer.

Now, though? Dissenting views are more prevalent. Top-five has given way to top-15. His 4.59 40-yard dash at the combine was slower than expected. His purported 4.7 at Notre Dame pro day opened the gates for a widespread drop. Both lit the fuse on positional value discussion. Is he truly rare enough to justify spending a top-five pick on a safety, which only three teams have done since 1991?

“Safeties are not a premium,” a college defensive coach told The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman. “He’s a unicorn, and he is a very good player. He’s really versatile. He doesn’t fit the mold. He’s built like a sam linebacker. His man coverage isn’t great and his short-area quickness isn’t great. He could be on the No. 3 in the 3-by-1 formation or on a slot. You can’t name a lot of safeties who can really cover a slot.”

An offensive coach expressed similar skepticism to Feldman of Hamilton as a top-five pick.

“His FSU game was impressive, but people are talking about him like he’s another Derwin James, and he’s not,” the coach said. “When the Chargers practice, Derwin James covers [wide receiver] Keenan Allen and covers him well. Keenan Allen would make Kyle Hamilton want to retire.”

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Meanwhile, CBS Sports NFL senior writer Pete Prisco published his annual “what teams should do” mock based on his view of prospects. He had Hamilton lasting until the 22nd pick to the Green Bay Packers.

A few sprints in spandex can apparently change so much and outweigh three years of tape. One weakness on tape can offset all the others. Both seem to apply to Hamilton’s pre-draft dip. ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr., who put Hamilton second overall in early March, now has him as the No. 11 pick to the Washington Commanders in his most recent mock, which he co-authored with Todd McShay.

“The 40 time was the reason,” Kiper told reporters on a conference call earlier this month. “You talk to people in the NFL when you’re doing mock drafts, that’s what we do, and the consensus was he’d drop just a bit.

“Had he run better, he’d have been the second or the fourth pick in the draft. Some people thought he was the best player in the draft prior to that.”

Washington is the most common projection for Hamilton in the early batch of draft week mocks. NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks, ESPN’s Matt Miller and The Athletic’s Dane Brugler pegged him as the Commanders’ selection in their latest mocks.

“Hamilton, arguably the best player in the entire class, could fall outside the top 10 because of positional value,” Miller wrote. “For the Commanders, it’s a dream come true as he fills the team’s biggest need.

“Hamilton is a Day 1 impact for this defense and would make an immediate difference on the field as a starting strong safety.”

It’s worth noting the Commanders hosted him for one of their top-30 visits. He told Eisen the Lions, Falcons (No. 8 pick), Texans (No. 13) and “New York” were among his other pre-draft trips.

The Giants and Jets have four of the top 10 picks. Not all analysts are buying that Hamilton is due for a drop. Some still rank him as one of the best five or six players in the draft. CBS Sports draft analyst Chris Trapasso has him as the No. 4 pick to the Jets in his most recent mock.

“No fall for Hamilton,” Trapasso wrote. “Robert Saleh needs quality safety play in his system and will get that from the former Notre Dame star.”

Maybe all the discussion about him falling amounts to nothing when the Lions, Texans, Jets or Giants take him in the top five. Maybe it’s real and he slides into the teens. Not even Hamilton knows what to expect from an event that’s reliable in its unpredictability, even as a surefire first-round pick.

At least the Netflix show is mercifully about to end.

“We’re about to find out what happens,” Hamilton said. “Wherever I go I’ll be thankful.”