Notre Dame schedule analysis: Toughest opponent winning percentage rankings
Discussions around Notre Dame football’s 2022 schedule often start with conversations about Ohio State to open the year and continue with thoughts on talented Clemson and USC teams. Plus, there is a notable meeting with a veteran BYU team in Las Vegas.
But top to bottom, how does the Irish gauntlet look?
Now that all of the FBS conference schedules are out, college football analyst Phil Steele recently compiled a list of the toughest schedules next year based on opponents’ records from last season (the NCAA’s method). He also added a few of his own touches, factoring in winning records, bowl teams and top-25 rankings from 2021.
Steele’s final strength of opponent rankings will be featured in his annual preview magazine, which is slated to come out in late June or early July.
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Irish near the bottom of the rankings
Notre Dame comes in at No. 93 on the list after its opponents won just 49 percent of their games last season (73-76). For reference, Navy’s 2022 opponents won 65.8 percent of their games, which leads FBS football teams; they had a combined record of 100-52. UMass and Louisiana were last on the last, as the teams they play this fall won 39.5 percent of their contests.
Digging deeper into the metric Steele uses, six of Notre Dame’s 12 opponents played in bowls last year, and three teams finished ranked — Ohio State (No. 6), Clemson (No. 14) and BYU (No. 19). Notre Dame finished in the eight spot. Just four of the teams Notre Dame faces next year had winning records in 2021 — Ohio State, Clemson, BYU and Marshall.
Obviously, the independent FBS teams are not a conference, but Steele “ranks” them anyway. Notre Dame is fourth using the win-loss standard behind BYU, Connecticut and Army.
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Of course, in this situation, a 7-5 season counts just the same as an 11-2 year, which does not tell the full story. Plus, the metric does not account for Power Five versus Group of Five competition, it is merely based on wins and losses. Regardless, it’s an interesting metric to consider over the offseason.
Where do opponents fall?
Navy, an annual rival of the Irish, is listed above, but which other 2022 opponents have notable schedule metrics in Steele’s chart?
For starters, using the winning percentage, four of Notre Dame’s opponents fall in the top 15: aforementioned Navy at No. 1 plus No. 11 North Carolina, No. 12 Marshall and No. 13 BYU. By far, Cal has the easiest schedule using the winning percentage metric, as the Golden Bears’ opponents went 69-80 last season, winning just 46.3 percent of their games.
Further, BYU plays 10 teams next year who finished 2021 above .500. Only one other team has double-digit games against opponents on their 2022 schedule with winning records in 2021: Boise State.
