Notre Dame score predictions: Irish vs. Penn State Orange Bowl staff picks

The Irish have a chance to reach the national championship for the first time since 2012. No. 7 Notre Dame faces No. 6 Penn State at 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday in the Orange Bowl, which serves as the national semifinal.

Here are Blue & Gold‘s staff picks.

Tyler Horka, staff writer: Notre Dame 31, Penn State 14

Wait, wasn’t that the Boise State vs. Penn State score? Why yes, yes it was. Notre Dame will give the Nittany Lions a taste of their own medicine. The Fighting Irish will look like the better team from the start. And while Penn State will flirt with a comeback, Notre Dame will thwart it in the fourth quarter. 

I’m anticipating another smothering, inspired effort for the Notre Dame defense, especially with coordinator Al Golden wanting to get one over on his alma mater. It’s not about that with this team, though, which is more so of a reason why I’m picking such a wide margin for a playoff game. It’s always been about the Irish proving something to themselves, and that’s what will happen in Miami. 

These Irish, down so many starters to season-ending injuries, will punch a ticket to the national championship game for the first time since the 2012 season. 

Jack Soble, staff writer: Notre Dame 24, Penn State 13

I’m betting on Notre Dame being who it’s been all season. This will be a tightly-contested, low-scoring game — think 17-13 entering the fourth quarter or something like that — and senior Irish quarterback Riley Leonard will engineer a drive that ends in a rushing touchdown midway through the fourth quarter to seal the deal.

I like to look at the matchups when determining a winner. There are some, like junior Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter against Leonard and a still-young and imperfect offensive line, that would greatly concern me if I were Notre Dame. This team, though, has proven it can rise above concerning matchups. And at this point in the season, most close games come down to battles of attrition. Who will be the first to give?

The Irish will outlast the Nittany Lions and punch their ticket to the national championship.

Kyle Kelly, recruiting reporter: Notre Dame 23, Penn State 20

How could you bet against Notre Dame at this point? Time and time again, Marcus Freeman and his team have overcome every obstacle put in front of them. Why wouldn’t they against Penn State? 

Of the three other teams remaining in the CFP, Penn State is probably the team the Irish would most like to see in the semifinal. The Nittany Lions are also banged up and could be without a key player in Carter. 

Just like the Georgia game, I think this comes down to a few key plays, especially turnovers. Notre Dame is one of the country’s best in all turnover categories and if it can protect the football Thursday while forcing one or two, the Irish will be headed to Atlanta. 

I have Mitch Jeter kicking three field goals in the victory. He’s been money this postseason and I expect that to remain the same in Miami.

Mike Singer, recruiting insider: Notre Dame 20, Penn State 17

At first glance, one may think that the Irish are getting an easier opponent going from the SEC Champions to Penn State, but that’s not the case in reality, at least in my opinion. The Nittany Lions have a (likely) future first-round pick at quarterback, two stud running backs, the best tight end in college football and a strong defense. Carter’s status is a key talking point ahead of the game; if he’s out or extremely limited, that is bad news for Penn State.

In another low scoring, ugly contest, I give Notre Dame the edge. The Sugar Bowl felt a lot like the opener against Texas A&M (to me, as expected), and I believe the Orange Bowl will be similar, too.

Todd D. Burlage, contributor: Penn State 24, Notre Dame 21

The checklist of impressive accomplishments for Notre Dame this season is too long to list in this short space. But let’s start with a 12-game winning streak to make the College Football Playoff, nine straight wins by 10 points or more (the longest such streak since 1949), and the second-best scoring margin in the country at +24.1 points per game.

All good things and this easy ride must come to an end, though. And that’s where Notre Dame will find itself against Penn State, for a couple of reasons. The Irish have leaned on timely turnovers and game-changing special teams plays to get this far. But relying on those two unpredictable factors to beat the most balanced opponent this season won’t hold up.

Also, factor in a short prep week and mounting Irish injuries, and Penn State flips the script and makes enough game-changing plays to secure a hard-fought victory. 

Steve Downey, managing editor: Notre Dame 20, Penn State 16

The Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions rank second (13.6 points allowed per game) and seventh (15.8), respectively, nationally in scoring defense, so this figures to be another slugfest. After watching Notre Dame control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against SEC champ Georgia, I have a hard time believing they won’t be able to do the same against Penn State.

The Lions’ X-factor on offense is Tyler Warren, who won the John Mackey Award as the nation’s best tight end. He led all Power Four tight ends in Pro Football Focus offense grade (93.3), receiving yards (1,158), touchdowns (eight) and yards after the catch (655). Fortunately, the Irish are well equipped to slow him down. The Irish safety group led by Xavier Watts and Adon Shuler ranks second in passer rating against (46.1) and coverage grade (91.4), per PFF.

On the other side of the ball, Penn State’s rush defense is coming off a yeoman’s effort that resulted in holding Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty of Boise State to a season-low 104 rushing yards. However, the Lions’ defense missed a tackle on 17 percent of plays this season — the fourth-worst rate in the Power Four, per PFF. That could spell trouble against Notre Dame’s three-headed monster of Leonard (40 missed tackles forced) and running backs Jeremiyah Love (60) and Jadarian Price (25). I think that trio will make enough plays to grind out another victory for the Irish.