The Notre Dame 3-2-1: 3 numbers, 2 questions (independent advantage), 1 prediction (another cover)

Well, this is it.

Notre Dame’s journey of 10 consecutive must-win games since the loss to Northern Illinois on Sept. 7, ends Saturday afternoon with one last hurdle to clear for a berth into the 2024 College Football Playoff. 

To this point, it’s been smooth sailing for Notre Dame (10-1) during its nine-game winning streak. 

The No. 5 Irish have won those nine games by an average score of 44-11. And for the season, it’s +27.4-point scoring margin leads the nation after Notre Dame leapfrogged Ohio State (+27.1) for the top spot last Saturday. 

USC (6-5) has won two straight games, three of its last four, and is playing its best ball of the season.

This will mark the ninth consecutive game that at least one of USC and/or Notre Dame are ranked for this meeting. The Irish are 6-2 in the previous eight. 

With all of that as a backdrop, it’s time again for The 3-2-1, a weekly column made popular by the late Lou Somogyi. 

Happy Thanksgiving all.

3 Numbers

26 — Notre Dame’s 26 takeaways lead the nation for turnovers gained, and the Irish have scored 127 points off of those takeaways. That compares to only 27 points that Notre Dame’s opponents have scored off of 10 Irish turnovers — a 100-point differential.

11 — The 49-14 Notre Dame win over No. 19 Army last weekend marked the 11th victory over a ranked opponent for third-year Irish head coach Marcus Freeman. That win moved Freeman past legendary Irish skipper Frank Leahy for most top-25 wins by any Notre Dame head coach during his first three seasons. 

2 — Notre Dame senior quarterback Riley Leonard is one of only two Power Four Conference quarterbacks who have passed for at least 1,900 yards and rushed for at least 650 yards this season. Vanderbilt senior Diego Pavia is the other.

2 Questions

How should we evaluate Notre Dame’s passing game?

Just ask the Irish receivers. 

Despite the fact that Notre Dame doesn’t have a single player who ranks in the top-200 nationally in receiving yards or receptions per game, the Irish pass catchers are all quick to celebrate the effective by-committee, share-the-wealth approach in the passing game that Irish offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has devised, and that Leonard is efficiently executing. 

Call it great balance or a striking deficiency, but heading into the USC game, no Irish pass catcher has more than 5 receptions in a single game or tallied 100 receiving yards.

To further illustrate Leonard’s targeting balance, 12 different Irish receivers have a touchdown catch this season, but none has more than 2. 

Irish grad transfer wideout Jayden Harrison said Notre Dame’s deep and talented group of receivers allows Leonard to “pick his poison,” when target hunting, and Leonard concurs. 

“I don’t even have to look out there and see who [the receiver] is because I know these guys can all make plays, no matter what,” Leonard explained. “So, I’m not really worried about who’s out there. As long as they’re wearing my color jersey, they’re going to make a play for me.”

How much does Notre Dame’s independence help its playoff pursuits?

A heckuva lot.

All of this assumes Notre Dame beats USC, but as we all ride together on the maiden 12-team College Football Playoff voyage, it becomes increasingly clear that Notre Dame’s setup as an independent, and its ease to playoff inclusion, couldn’t be cushier.  

As the leader of an independent football program, former Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick — a driving force behind writing the new CFP rules — understood that he couldn’t get all he wanted, so he conceded that the four first-round playoff byes should be reserved for conference champions, and the only route for Notre Dame into the tournament would be through an at-large invitation. 

At the time, forfeiting any chance at a playoff bye and earning a No. 5 seed at best — even with an undefeated regular season — seemed like a lot to give up. 

It’s not. Because trading a potential playoff bye for a chance to rest, kick back, and watch other power conference teams cannibalize each other during championship weekend on Dec. 7, provides a nice luxury.

As an independent, Notre Dame, gets the best of all worlds, most notably, a clear and smooth path to the playoffs every year, and a good chance of hosting a first-round game. 

The program’s football relationship with the mediocre ACC provides five winnable games for the Irish every season against a softer “conference” schedule than what teams from the SEC or the Big Ten play. The Irish are 37-2 against ACC opponents in the regular season since 2018. 

Add Navy to the five ACC matchups. Mix in a couple of Group of Five cupcakes, and Notre Dame can essentially start each season 8-0, and put itself in line for at least 10 wins and playoff consideration every year. 

Then, remove a conference championship game from the equation that could spoil the stew, and the independence island Notre Dame inhabits should be the envy of every other power program in the country.

1 Prediction 

Notre Dame beats USC and covers the betting line for the seventh time in its last eight games. 

As a 7.5-point favorite over USC, this is expected to be the diciest game for Notre Dame since it was only a 6.5-point favorite over No. 15 Louisville on Sept. 28. 

For what it’s worth, the Irish are 8-2-1 (77 percent) against the betting line this season, which ties with Minnesota for the fourth-best mark in the country.

Arizona State, Tulane and Marshall are all 9-2 against the number (82 percent), and the only three teams in the country with a better mark than Notre Dame. 

The Irish will add to this impressive and lucrative run on Saturday with a double-digit win over USC.