What beating Louisville did for Notre Dame’s NCAA Tournament projections
Notre Dame is on the bubble. Not that bubble, the one that leaves you home for the NCAA Tournament if it bursts. The hosting bubble, which is a much better one to float on but can be just as stressful to bounce around with as the main one.
As the latter bubble relates to the Fighting Irish, things are looking up.
Per ESPN bracketology expert Charlie Creme, Notre Dame is in a position to earn a top-four seed in the NCAA Tournament field after beating then-No. 22 Louisville 74-58 on Sunday. The Irish have been holding steady at a projected No. 5 seed for weeks, but wins over then-No. 5 Virginia Tech and the Cardinals in the last week appear to have pushed them into hosting territory.
Sixteen teams receive the right to host first- and second-round NCAA Tournament games at their home arenas every year. You have to be a No. 1, 2, 3 or 4 seed in any of the four regions for that to happen.
Last year, Notre Dame was a No. 3 seed. Purcell Pavilion played host to No. 6 seed Creighton, No. 11 seed Mississippi State and No. 14 seed Southern Utah. The Irish beat Southern Utah 82-56 and Mississippi State 53-48 to advance to the Sweet 16 for the second consecutive season.
It’s much easier to advance to the second weekend of the tournament when playing at home. Irish fans proved how much home-court advantage matters with a sold-out showing Sunday. Louisville seemed rattled by crowd noise when Notre Dame made its third-quarter run.
Notre Dame head coach Niele Ivey sounded hopeful in her postgame address over the arena speakers and in her postgame press conference that the Irish had done enough to be a top-four seed in the big dance. Creme is on board, as of now. It’ll be interesting to see how much notching one more win at the ACC Tournament in Greensboro matters for the Irish’s chances. It’s lining up to be the third edition of Notre Dame versus Louisville there, too.
If the Irish win and take two of three from the Cardinals, they’ll be a lock to be a top-four seed. At that point, it’ll be more about trying to run the table in the ACC Tournament to possibly even slide up to the No. 3 seed line come selection Sunday. But if Notre Dame loses to Louisville, it’s going to be an anxious St. Patrick’s Day in South Bend awaiting a tournament designation.
At the moment, Creme has Notre Dame hosting in the same region as No. 1 South Carolina. That means the Irish would face the Gamecocks for the second time this season in the Sweet 16 if both teams advanced that far. South Carolina beat Notre Dame 100-71 in the season opener Nov. 6 in Paris, France.
The Irish would need to beat No. 13 seed Fairfield and the winner of No. 5 seed Oklahoma and No. 12 seed Florida Gulf Coast to reach a third consecutive Sweet 16 per Creme’s current projections.
Here are Creme’s seedings for the top-five lines as of March 4.
No. 1 seeds
• South Carolina
• Stanford
• UCLA
• Ohio State
No. 2 seeds
• USC
• Iowa
• Texas
• LSU
No. 3 seeds
• UConn
• Virginia Tech
• Oregon State
• NC State
No. 4 seeds
• Notre Dame
• Indiana
• Gonzaga
• Colorado
No. 5 seeds
• Oklahoma
• Syracuse
• Baylor
• Kansas State
