On paper: Breaking down Notre Dame vs. Central Michigan

Central Michigan is a lot like two of Notre Dame’s first three opponents: Its quarterback is more of a threat as a runner than he is as a passer. It also features a better run defense than you might think and some major holes along the offensive line.

Here’s a complete breakdown of every matchup before the Irish take on the Chippewas at 2:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.

Central Michigan Running Game vs. Notre Dame Run Defense

Central Michigan, at least through one game in 2023, is a quarterback-driven run game. The Irish are used to hearing that by now, given that in three weeks they’ve dealt with Navy’s triple option and athletic NC State graduate student quarterback Brennan Armstrong, but they should also be well equipped to defend it. 

Redshirt freshman quarterback Bert Emanuel Jr. paced the Chippewas in a 31-7 loss to Michigan State Sept. 1 with 58 yards on 13 attempts, good for just less than 4.5 yards per carry. When redshirt sophomore backup signal-caller Jase Bauer came into the game late, he carried twice for 27 yards. In total, according to Sports Info Solutions, CMU ranked 51st in the country in points earned per run play at 0.114, which is in the top half of the country. 

Nevertheless, the Chippewas could use more from junior running backs Myles Bailey and Marion Lukes. That duo averaged just 2.9 yards on their 10 combined carries. 

CMU’s offensive line got off to a rough start, totaling a 48.1 run blocking grade, according to Pro Football Focus. The Chippewas’ highest-graded run blocker was redshirt sophomore Keegan Smith at 57.3. Michigan State had its way with Central Michigan’s offensive line, compiling 10 tackles for loss, and Notre Dame should fare about the same. 

The Irish allowed 2.6 yards per carry against Navy and Tennessee State, despite some early game hiccups. In particular, look for graduate student defensive ends Javontae Jean-Baptiste and Nana Osafo-Mensah to pick up a tackle for loss or two. 

Advantage: Notre Dame

Central Michigan Passing Game vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense

Central Michigan offensive tackles Davis Heinzen (a redshirt sophomore) and Brayden Swartout (a junior) are back, which might not be good news for the Chippewas. There were 296 offensive tackles that played more than 350 pass-blocking snaps last season. Swartout and Heinzen ranked 273rd and 278th, respectively. 

The Chippewas’ pass protection was similarly suspect against Michigan State, allowing 19 pressures and 3 sacks in 25 drop-backs. Jean-Baptiste, senior vyper Jordan Botelho, sophomore vyper Joshua Burnham and sophomore linebacker Jaylen Sneed should outmatch the CMU tackles. 

At least in part due to poor protection, Emanuel and Bauer combined to complete 13 of 25 passes for 96 yards (3.84 yards per attempt) with 1 touchdown and 1 interception (both by Emanuel). Their leading receiver, redshirt sophomore tight end Mitchel Collier, caught 3 passes for 30 yards. Emanuel has an alarmingly slow release, which contributed to a deflection at the line of scrimmage that caused his lone interception. 

Notre Dame’s pass defense gave up only 55 yards per game through the air to Navy and Tennessee State. Central Michigan is better than those two teams, but not to an extent that will make a difference against graduate student cornerback Cam Hart plus sophomore cornerbacks Benjamin Morrison and Jaden Mickey. 

Advantage: Notre Dame

Notre Dame Running Game vs. Central Michigan Run Defense

The Chippewas were quite good against the run in 2022, allowing only 3.8 yards per carry. Through one game in 2023, they saved 0.626 points per play, according to SIS, which ranked first in the Mid-American Conference and 12th in the country. 

CMU brought back much of its defensive front, including senior defensive lineman Jacques Bristol, a 6-foot-1, 295-pound bowling ball of a defensive tackle who came up huge on two fourth-and-1 stops against Michigan State. Also back is junior linebacker Kyle Moretti, who led the team with 95 tackles in 2022 and notched a team-high 14 stops in this year’s season opener versus the Spartans. 

In general, the Chippewas contained the Spartans relatively well in Week 1, which indicates that their front seven will be one of the best in the MAC once again in 2023. 

Notre Dame, however, is a different animal. Navy had a stout run defense, too, until the Irish ran 32 times for 191 yards (just less than 6 yards per carry) and 2 touchdowns Aug. 26. Junior running back Audric Estimé is as difficult to tackle as any power back in the country, while change-of-pace runners Gi’Bran Payne (a sophomore), Jadarian Price (a sophomore) and Jeremiyah Love (a freshman) have all proven to be more than capable. 

The Notre Dame offensive line graded poorly against Tennessee State in run blocking at 56.7, per PFF, which won’t work against the Chippewas. But junior offensive tackle Joe Alt and company proved capable of executing against a tough, if undersized, Navy front. They should do the same against the Central Michigan. 

Advantage: Notre Dame

Notre Dame Passing Game vs. Central Michigan Pass Defense

Junior cornerback Donte Kent was arguably Central Michigan’s best player in 2022, making 51 tackles and breaking up 15 passes, which tied for third in the country. His 2023 season, however, got off to a rough start. Michigan State threw at him 6 times, completing 4 passes for 112 yards. The Spartans exposed all levels of the Chippewa defense once redshirt junior quarterback Noah Kim got comfortable, and he finished 13-of-31 passing for 279 yards (9 yards per attempt) with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions. 

Even if Kent bounces back, he won’t fix a CMU pass defense that won’t be able to match the athleticism of Notre Dame’s six talented receivers. In his first two games with the Fighting Irish, graduate student quarterback Sam Hartman connected on 33 of 40 throws (82.5 percent) for 445 yards with 6 touchdowns and no picks over six quarters of action. He looks like everything the Irish hoped for when they picked him up as a transfer from Wake Forest, and he’ll have no trouble making plays downfield against the Chippewas. 

Up front, CMU lost pass rusher Thomas Incoom, who totaled 11.5 sacks in 2022 and recently made the Denver Broncos’ roster as an undrafted free agent. Incoom accounted for about a third of Central Michigan’s sack production last season, which is even more than eventual second-round pick Isaiah Foskey did for Notre Dame. CMU has typically pressured quarterbacks well under fifth-year coach Jim McElwain, and it sacked Kim twice in Week 1. 

Notre Dame did not allow a sack through the first two weeks of the season, but it did give up 10 pressures against Tennessee State. The starting Irish guards, juniors Pat Coogan and Rocco Spindler, still lack experience, but they should be up to speed by the time Central Michigan enters South Bend. 

Advantage: Notre Dame

Special Teams

Central Michigan redshirt junior kicker Tristan Mattson has never attempted a field goal in college football, but he handled kickoffs in 2021 and 2022 at Arkansas State (as a teammate of eventual Notre Dame kicker Blake Grupe). During those two seasons, 47.3 percent of his kickoffs were touchbacks, which is significantly lower than Notre Dame graduate student kicker Spencer Shrader’s career 69.8 percent mark through two games this season. 

Shrader missed his lone field goal attempt from 42 yards through two contests, which brought his career total down to 66.7 percent. On the punting side, CMU senior and Tarleton State transfer Jake Walrath has plenty of experience, with 138 career punts through Week 1 to Irish sophomore Bryce McFerson’s 2 (pre-NC State). Walrath’s career long is an impressive 74 yards, so he has the leg. McFerson, by all accounts, has a booming right foot as well. 

Central Michigan’s punt returner is Wisconsin transfer wide receiver Stephan Bracey Jr. He did not have a punt return in his career entering Week 2 but neither did senior Notre Dame wide receiver Chris Tyree, who looked the part through two weeks with 2 returns for 17 yards. 

When the players are bigger, stronger and faster at one school than they are at another, the special teams units will generally be better. That is the case at Notre Dame, which feasted on Group of Five school UNLV last season with two blocked punts. 

Advantage: Notre Dame

Coaching

Notre Dame offensive coordinator Gerad Parker and defensive coordinator Al Golden have been impressive through two weeks. Parker’s play-calling has exceeded most outside expectations thus far, and Golden has done a nice job adjusting to some unknowns that Navy and Tennessee State threw at the Irish. Wide receivers coach Chansi Stuckey, running backs coach Deland McCullough and cornerbacks coach Mike Mickens are three assistants whom Irish fans should feel very good about, with the way they’ve built strength and depth in their respective rooms. 

Irish head coach Marcus Freeman has spent a lot of time in his press conference reflecting on the areas in which he’s improved as a leader, a coach and the CEO of the program since he was first promoted after Brian Kelly left for LSU. In particular, Freeman’s “one play, one life” approach to focusing on one game at a time has paid off for Notre Dame in the early going. 

On the Central Michigan side, Jim McElwain has experience coaching at the Power Five level, but his time at Florida ended poorly and strangely. After winning the Southeastern Conference East division in McElwain’s first two seasons (2015-16), the Gators started 3-3 before a 42-7 drubbing at the hands of Georgia. 

Before the Georgia loss, he surprised Florida officials by abruptly claiming his players and members of his family received death threats. After considering firing McElwain for cause due to that comment, Florida and its coach mutually agreed to part ways. A Florida source’s comments to ESPN caught a lot of peoples’ attention at the time. 

“It was never the right fit,” the source told ESPN reporters Edward Aschoff and Mark Schlabach. “It was an odd fit from the beginning. He never embraced being here and being part of a team.” 

While McElwain has had two winning seasons in four years at Central Michigan, his Florida tenure is difficult to live down. 

Advantage: Notre Dame

Intangibles

Notre Dame has the more experienced quarterback by more than 45 starts. As Freeman has stressed to reporters many times, that absolutely matters. Vibes were excellent in South Bend in the first two weeks, with Freeman claiming that the 2023 team might be the closest he’s been a part of, while Central Michigan is coming off a 4-8 season and a blowout loss to Michigan State. 

The only advantage the Chippewas might have is the trap game element. Notre Dame is coming off a difficult road game against North Carolina State in Raleigh, N.C., and is well aware of what comes after Central Michigan: Ohio State. Could the Irish get caught relaxing after NC State and/or get caught looking ahead to Ohio State? Maybe, but if Freeman’s constant “one play, one life” preaching is any indication, they won’t make the mistakes they did last season against Marshall and Stanford.

Notre Dame should run away with this one. 

Advantage: Notre Dame