Ranking Notre Dame's 2022 opponents by preseason SP+

ESPN analyst Bill Connelly releases his SP+ rankings each preseason, and the way-too-early version came out last week. Notre Dame sits in the No. 8 spot, but where do its 2022 opponents rank?

First, Connelly’s definition of SP+: “It’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.”

What factors into SP+?

Connelly sites three main factors when making the SP+ rankings:

1. Returning production: Both transfers and departing players are included in this year’s returning production rankings, a list which came out earlier this week. This factor and last year’s SP+ rankings account for two-thirds of the 2022 SP+.
2. Recent recruiting: The most recent class is the most important in this exercise, since prior classes have already had a shot at seeing the field for their respective team. This factor is approximately one-fifth of the 2022 SP+.
3. Recent history: It’s a minor piece of the puzzle, but if a team has had sustained success over multiple years in the recent past, it is a decent sign of future program health.

With these notes in mind, here are Notre Dame’s 2022 opponents ranked using Connelly’s SP+ metric:

12. (No. 116) Navy

Notre Dame has had Navy’s number in recent years, and an experienced Irish defense is likely to feast on a younger Navy offense this year once again. Of 131 FBS teams listed, Navy ranks No. 125 in terms of offensive SP+. Additionally, the Midshipmen come in at No. 120 in terms of returning production. Further, on the defensive side, leading tackler Diego Fagot is headed to the next level. After an 11-2 season in 2019, Navy has gone just 7-15 since then, and the 2022 outlook is not much better at this point.

11. (No. 109) UNLV

UNLV is a first-time opponent for the Irish, so there is no prior data to provide on the matchup. There is, however, the Rebels’ record over the last few years, and that doesn’t paint a pretty picture for UNLV. The Rebels have gone 2-16 in head coach Marcus Arroyo‘s first two seasons. They are helped in the SP+ rankings by their returning production (No. 16 nationally), but returning a set of players that have not performed well in recent years is hardly a recipe for success.

10. (No. 76) Boston College

The Eagles fall near the bottom of this list, but a rival is never to be overlooked. Especially when their starting quarterback was a former player on your roster in Phil Jurkovec, and their new offensive coordinator was previously your tight ends coach, John McNulty. Boston College’s recruiting has improved in the last year — they signed a No. 6 class in the ACC after two years at No. 10 and No. 11 — but I wouldn’t say that’s a huge jump that is cause for concern for Notre Dame come November. The Eagles have won six games for three consecutive years, so recent history isn’t quite on their side either.

9. (No. 74) Cal

Cal’s 2022 recruiting class ranks worse than its 2021 class, and that’s in a conference with the worst overall recruiting among the Power Five conferences. Justin Wilcox is a good head coach, as is evidenced by the fact that he was offered the Oregon head coaching job this past coaching cycle, but they return just 37% of their offense. The veteran Notre Dame defense has the potential to have a huge day when the Bears come to South Bend.

8. (No. 68) Stanford

Like Navy, there is plenty of head-to-head data on the annual opponent, data which heavily favors the Irish in recent years. The biggest thing going for Stanford in the SP+ rankings is they are returning nearly their entire team, including 94 percent of their offense. That offense, however, scored just 20.4 points per game last year (10th in the Pac-12).

7. (No. 64) USC

This one is a little surprising given all of the hype around the USC program in recent months. But since returning production and recent history are two of the three primary factors when it comes to SP+, this makes some sense. USC is No. 94 nationally in returning production, and they lost top wide receiver Drake London (who shredded Notre Dame in 2021) and one of their top pass rushers in Drake Jackson. Of course, they landed quarterback Caleb Williams and a whole collection of top talent from the transfer portal. If I had to guess, they’re going to be much better than this No. 64 SP+ ranking might suggest.

6. (No. 58) Syracuse

Like Stanford, Syracuse is given a heavy bump in the SP+ due to returning 80% of its players. Running back Sean Tucker is one of the nation’s top all-purpose backs (1,751 total yards in 2021), but Notre Dame handled him in their 2021 matchup. When it comes to recruiting, the Orange have finished ranked No. 13 in the ACC for the last two seasons.

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5. (No. 56) Marshall

While news broke on Friday that Marshall will not play in Conference USA in 2022, its most recent class ranked third in the conference and No. 78 nationally according to On3 Consensus. They were certainly docked in this metric for being No. 103 in terms of returning production for 2022. Things they have going for them? Marshall has been ranked as high as No. 15 in the AP poll in the last three years and has been to five consecutive bowl games.

4. (No. 40) North Carolina

Last season was a major disappointment for the Tar Heels, but Mack Brown continues to win the offseason in his second stint as UNC head coach. He just signed a top-10 class according to On3 Consensus, one which includes a five-star prospect and 11 four-star recruits. Notably, they lose more than half of their offensive production from last season, including starting quarterback Sam Howell.

3. (No. 23) BYU

BYU has been one of the more solid Group of Five teams in recent years, and it looks like that trend will continue in 2022. Their greatest strength when it comes to SP+ comes in returning production. They are second nationally, and they return 80 percent of their offensive and 97 percent of their defense. The latter number is No. 1 in the nation.

2. (No. 5) Clemson

Which Clemson is college football going to get in 2022? Connelly suggests a relatively high-level one. While they were down last year (if you count 10-3 as “down”), recent history is on Clemson’s side, as is recruiting. The Tigers had a No. 13 class in 2022, a No. 4 2021 class and their rising junior class from 2020 was No. 3 according to On3 Consensus. Will head coach Dabo Swinney and a shuffled staff be able to put the pieces together?

1. (No. 1) Ohio State

Ohio State holds the top spot nationally in the SP+ rankings, and Notre Dame gets them Labor Day Weekend. Ohio State returns 76% of their total production from last season, their 2022 recruiting class was ranked No. 4, and they have a 31-4 record in head coach Ryan Day‘s first three years in charge. Yep, this is going to be a tough one.