They're back: Breaking down returning defensive production for Notre Dame in 2022

While the Notre Dame offense will have a number of fresh faces taking over in starting spots in 2022, the defense is an entirely different story.

Each year, ESPN writer Bill Connelly releases his returning production rankings for the following season. The 2022 rendition came out this week. 

Notre Dame sits at No. 93 with 59 percent of their total production returning in 2022. The national average sits around 66 percent. On the offensive side of the ball, the Irish have just 49 percent coming back this fall, which ranks 113th. The defense has 69 percent of its production returning, which ranks 56th.

This piece will examine how Connelly arrived at the 69 percent on defense and who to look out for on that side of the ball in 2022.

What’s Connelly’s formula?

As Connelly points out, it is harder to measure defensive production than offensive production, as “success” is measured in a greater number of categories (sacks, tackles for loss, tackles, etc.). The ESPN expert’s formula changes each year, but here is the breakdown used to arrive at the aforementioned 2022 numbers:

Percent of returning tackles: 59%

Percent of returning passes defended: 28%

Percent of returning tackles for loss: 8%

Percent of returning sacks: 5%

“By position, defensive backs make up about 51% of the defensive formula, while linebackers are at 32% and the defensive line is at 17%,” Connelly added. According to the ESPN expert, he has found that change up front from year to year makes a lesser impact on production than change on the back end of a defense.

Tackles

Notre Dame’s leading tackler, linebacker JD Bertrand, is back after a 102-stop 2021 performance, which was tied for No. 47 nationally. Size is Bertrand’s primary weakness, but he will look to condition himself this offseason to climb that ladder in 2022.

PROMOTION: Sign up for just $1 for first year at Blue & Gold

Just behind Bertrand in the tackles category was fellow linebacker Drew White (55). He will not be around next year, but the linebacker group is in good hands under former linebacker and head coach Marcus Freeman and a stacked group of four 2022 linebackers, including the top-ranked prospect in Notre Dame’s newest class, Jaylen Sneed. The South Carolina native has an opportunity to make an impact immediately.

Passes defended

Notre Dame had five players with four or more pass breakups in 2021, and four of them are returning. The fifth player is All-American safety Kyle Hamilton. Cornerback Cam Hart led the team with seven passes defended in a breakout season.

Notre Dame lost Hamilton, but they brought in All-American safety Brandon Joseph from Northwestern. He is not “returning production” in the most literal sense, but Connelly attempts to factor production from one’s previous school into the equation at the new school. He broke up four passes in 2021 for the Wildcats.

Tackles for loss

In total, Notre Dame notched 82 tackles for loss in 2021. Members of the 2022 Irish roster accounted for 63 of those.

Unsurprisingly to anyone who watched the Irish play football last season, EDGE Isaiah Foskey led the pack in this category (12.5 tackles for loss). In order, DL Jayson Ademilola, Bertrand and EDGE Justin Ademilola followed behind, and they are all returning in 2021. Notre Dame’s biggest losses in this category are DL Kurt Hinish (5.5 tackles for loss) and DL Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa (five tackles for loss).

Sacks

Sacks only make up five percent of the metric, but Notre Dame was near perfect in this category. The Irish recorded 41 sacks in 2021, and departing players accounted for just six of those. After an 11-sack performance in 2021, Foskey has a chance to break former defensive end Justin Tuck‘s 2003 single-season sack record of 13.5. The Ademilola brothers were Notre Dame’s No. 2 and 3 sack leaders, totaling nine between the two of them.