Bubble breakdown: Where Ohio State stands as Selection Sunday approaches

COLUMBUS — After a critical double-overtime win over Nebraska on Tuesday night, nearly every bracket predictor has Ohio State inside the NCAA Tournament. The folks at Bracket Matrix even have Ohio State as a No. 11 seed in the tournament after taking a look at 100 different brackets to compile a consensus.

The resume for Ohio State seems to indicate that this team is bound for the Big Dance — although the season is far from over with one regular-season game and the Big Ten Tournament remaining. A lot can change between now and next Sunday

Ohio State NCAA Tournament resume

NET: 36
KenPom: 34
Key wins: vs. Kentucky (neutral site), vs. Texas (neutral site), at Purdue, vs. Maryland
Bad losses: vs. Indiana, vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Oregon, vs. Northwestern (all home)

Ohio State is the highest-ranked 13-loss team in KenPom by 10 spots and the highest-ranked 13-loss team in NET by 4 spots. The Buckeyes are 5-9 in Quad 1 games, 5-4 in Quad 2 games and are undefeated in Quad 3 and Quad 4 games.

Lettermen Row is breaking down where the most popular bracketologists have Ohio State landing in the NCAA Tournament as of Thursday morning. Let’s dive in.

ESPN

The advanced numbers at ESPN give Ohio State a 62-percent chance to make the NCAA Tournament ahead of the regular-season finale against Indiana.

Here’s what ESPN said about the Buckeyes:

Ohio State has been through its share of ups and downs as we approach Selection Sunday, but the Buckeyes trended back up by beating fellow Big Ten bubble inhabitant Nebraska in double overtime Tuesday. The game that saw a combined 230 points scored took OSU’s odds in the ESPN Analytics forecast model from the mid-50% range to around 60%. That’s still not exactly safe territory, and how the committee views Ohio State’s 11th-ranked schedule strength will be key. Eleven of its 13 losses have come against BPI top-50 opponents, and all 13 were against the top 100. Predictive metrics have the Buckeyes ranked in decent shape (all in the 30 range nationally), but their résumé metrics are less convincing, as they are outside the top 50 in SOR and WAB. The final regular-season game, at Indiana, carries big bubble repercussions.

Jerry Palm, CBS

CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm has Ohio State as a No. 11 seed in the East Region, earning a spot in the tournament and playing close to home in the First Four in Dayton. Palm has the Buckeyes as one of the last four teams in the entire NCAA Tournament. He has the Buckeyes facing fellow No. 11 seed Boise State in Dayton for the right to play No. 6 seed Mississippi State.

The top seed in that region, according to Palm, would be Duke. Other Big Ten teams in Palm’s East Region are No. 4 seed Oregon and No. 10 seed Indiana.

The Field of 68

Media company The Field of 68 has Ohio State as a No. 12 seed — but playing in the First Four round against fellow No. 12 seed Xavier in Dayton. Win that game, and face No. 5 seed Missouri in the West Region.

Other Big Ten teams in that proposed region, which is highlighted by top seed Alabama, are No. 2 seed Wisconsin and No. 6 seed Maryland.

The Sporting News

The Sporting News’ Bill Bender has Ohio State safely in the field as a No. 11 seed, joining other 11 seeds West Virginia, North Carolina and San Diego State. The Buckeyes are among the last four teams in, according to Bender’s latest projection.

The Athletic

The Athletic’s Joe Rexrode has Ohio State as the No. 11 seed in the South Region, facing off against No. 6 seed Louisville in Wichita. The winner of that matchup would face the winner of No. 3 seed Texas Tech and No. 14 seed Utah Valley.

The top seed in that projected region is Auburn, according to Rexrode. The other Big Ten teams in Rexrode’s South Region are No. 2 seed Michigan State, No. 4 seed Purdue and No. 8 seed Illinois.