Bubble breakdown: Where Ohio State stands ahead of conference tournament week

COLUMBUS — Ohio State ended the regular season on a sour note. The Buckeyes had a late lead on the road against Indiana, which would have given them another good win and all but secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament.

But after blowing that lead — and that game — the Buckeyes are as ‘on the bubble’ as a team can possibly be heading into the Big Ten Tournament, where they’ll face Iowa on Wednesday evening at 6 p.m.

The Buckeyes are 5-10 in Quad 1 games, 5-4 in Quad 2 games and are undefeated in Quad 3 and Quad 4 games. Lettermen Row is breaking down where the most popular bracketologists have Ohio State landing in the NCAA Tournament as of Tuesday morning — ahead of conference tournament week. Let’s dive in.

Ohio State NCAA Tournament resume

NET: 36
KenPom: 34
Key wins: vs. Kentucky (neutral site), vs. Texas (neutral site), at Purdue, vs. Maryland
Bad losses: vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Northwestern (all home)

ESPN and bracketologist Joe Lunardi

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has Ohio State as the very last team in the NCAA Tournament field and playing Xavier in a first-four matchup in Dayton, Ohio. The winner of that game, in Lunardi’s bracket, would face No. 5 seed Arizona in Seattle as part of the West Region. Lunardi’s top seed in that region is Florida, while he has No. 4 seed Purdue and No. 6 seed UCLA as other Big Ten teams in that region.

The advanced numbers at ESPN give Ohio State a 52-percent chance to make the NCAA Tournament ahead of the Big Ten Tournament, even after the loss to Indiana on Saturday.

Here’s what ESPN said about the Buckeyes:

If they end up missing the NCAA tournament, the Buckeyes can blame Saturday’s loss at Indiana as much as anything. For the first 32 minutes of play, Ohio State seldom trailed, but it gave up a 25-11 run to close the game. A win would have boosted its tourney odds in ESPN Analytics’ forecast to 74%; the loss left it more likely to miss the tourney than make it (52%). Unless the Buckeyes manage an impressive run through the Big 10 tourney, how the committee views Ohio State’s 11th-ranked schedule strength remains the key. Ten of its 14 losses have come against BPI top-50 opponents, and all 14 were against the top 100. Predictive metrics have the Buckeyes in decent shape (all in the 30-range nationally), but their résumé metrics are less convincing — borderline top 50 in SOR and WAB. (Updated March 9 at 9:23 a.m.)

Jerry Palm, CBS

CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm has Ohio State as one of the first four teams out of the NCAA Tournament field. The Buckeyes are joined by North Carolina, Wake Forest and Dayton as the first four teams out.

The Field of 68

Media company The Field of 68 has Ohio State as a No. 12 seed — but playing in the First Four round against fellow No. 12 seed Xavier in Dayton. Win that game, and face No. 5 seed St. Mary’s in the East Region.

Other Big Ten teams in that proposed region, which is highlighted by top seed Duke, are No. 4 seed Purdue and No. 6 seed UCLA.

The Sporting News

The Sporting News’ Bill Bender has Ohio State as the last team in the entire NCAA Tournament field of 68. Bender has the Buckeyes in Dayton as part of the “First Four.”

The Athletic

The Athletic’s Joe Rexrode has Ohio State as a No. 12 seed in the Midwest Region, facing off against fellow No. 12 seed North Carolina in Dayton as part of the First Four. The winner of that matchup would face No. 5 seed Missouri in Denver.

The top seed in that projected region is Houston, according to Rexrode. The other Big Ten teams in Rexrode’s Midwest Region are No. 4 seed Wisconsin, No. 6 seed Illinois and No. 2 seed Michigan State.