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Latest bracket projections have mixed feelings on Buckeyes NCAA Tournament chances

Spencer-Holbrookby:Spencer Holbrook02/26/25

SpencerHolbrook

Jake Diebler by Mick Walker -- Lettermen Row --
Jake Diebler (Mick Walker/Lettermen Row)

COLUMBUS — Ohio State has lost three straight games at the worst time of the season for a losing skid.

Just last week, nearly every bracket projection had the Buckeyes safely in the NCAA Tournament field. But after a narrow loss to a ranked Michigan team, a blowout loss to a bad Northwestern team and a road defeat to UCLA, Ohio State is watching its tournament resume take on water — and its chances to make the tournament are beginning to slip away.

Lettermen Row is breaking down the bracket projections ahead of Ohio State vs. USC on Wednesday night, one of the most pivotal games of the year for the Buckeyes tournament push. Let’s dive in.

Ohio State NCAA Tournament resume

NET: 35 (down seven spots since loss to Northwestern)
KenPom: 33 (down five spots since loss to Northwestern)
Key wins: vs. Kentucky (neutral site), vs. Texas (neutral site), at Purdue, vs. Maryland
Bad losses: vs. Indiana, vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Oregon (all home), vs. Northwestern (home)

Joe Lunardi, ESPN

The most popular bracket analyst, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, has Ohio State as one of the last four teams in — in a spot that he calls “tenuous,” Win the USC game, and Lunardi would have the Buckeyes more safely in the dance with two more regular season games left to play afterward.

Lunardi has Nebraska, which Ohio State will play next week, as one of his “Last Four Byes” team and Indiana, which Ohio State closes the season against next weekend, as one of his “First Four Out” teams as of Wednesday. Two of Lunardi’s other “Last Four In” teams, Arkansas and Texas, face off against each other on Wednesday night.

Jerry Palm, CBS

CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm isn’t even considering Ohio State as a bubble team right now, declining to include the Buckeyes in his latest story about bubble teams in action Wednesday night after previously writing about the program as a tournament team as recently as last week.

If Ohio State beats USC, maybe Palm will reconsider the Buckeyes as a potential tournament team.

The Field of 68

Media company The Field of 68 has Ohio State out of the field as one of the first four teams out of the NCAA Tournament. A win over USC on Wednesday night could change that projection, though.

The Athletic

The Athletic’s Joe Rexrode has Ohio State as the No. 11 seed in the First Four, facing off against fellow No. 11 seed Arkansas in Dayton. The winner of that matchup would face the No. 6 seed Clemson in Providence, Rhode Island, in Rexrode’s bracket projection.

The top seed in that projected region is Auburn, according to Rexrode. The other Big Ten teams in Rexrode’s Midwest Region are No. 4 seed Purdue and No. 8 seed Illinois.

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