College Football Playoff changing seeding model: what it means for Ohio State

COLUMBUS — Ohio State won the first national championship of the 12-team College Football Playoff era. Just one year into the new format, changes are coming.

Executives from the CFP were scheduled for a call Thursday, and Yahoo! Sports’ Ross Dellenger reported that they’re expected to adopt a straight-seeding model for the 2025 Playoff. It would also feature a financial compromise of some kind.

“After evaluating the first year of the 12-team Playoff, the CFP Management Committee felt it was in the best interest of the game to make this adjustment,” said Rich Clark, executive director of the College Football Playoff, in a statement released by the CFP. “This change will continue to allow guaranteed access to the Playoff by rewarding teams for winning their conference championship, but it will also allow us to construct a postseason bracket that recognizes the best performance on the field during the entire regular season.”

That vote passed unanimously, and the straight-seeding model is set for this season. The top five conference champions will still have automatic CFP spots, but the teams will be seeded 1-12 in order of their CFP ranking, not based on conference championship wins. This rule change does mean Notre Dame can now receive a first-round bye as a top-four team despite not playing in a conference title game.

The four highest-ranked teams will be assigned to Playoff quarterfinals bowls on selection day in ranking order and in consideration of current contract bowl relationships (for example: if the highest-ranked team is from the Big Ten, that team would be assigned to the Rose Bowl Game).

– CFP release

The format change would mean the top four teams, regardless of conference, will receive the first-round bye in the CFP. Last season, Arizona State and Boise State were both well outside of the top four teams, yet they received first-round byes because they won a conference. Both lost in their first game of the CFP to teams that had to play first-round matchups.

This change comes at a time when there have been discussions about several changes to the College Football Playoff. That includes potential further expansion to either 14 or 16 teams. Those discussions also include proposals that there would be automatic bids that go along with the CFP. In one, it would include four SEC teams, four Big Ten teams, two Big 12 teams, two ACC teams, one Group of Six team, and three automatic bids. Dellenger also reports that expansion may be discussed but a decision is unlikely.

Changes in the size of the Playoff itself probably aren’t coming for the 2025 season. However, it’s safe to expect that the expanded field would come with straight-seeding as well, even in a situation where there’d be bye weeks in the bracket.

How Ohio State path would have changed

Ohio State would not have received a first-round bye in any format last season on its way to a national championship, but the Buckeyes’ path to the title would have looked much difference under the straight-seeding format.

Instead of hosting Tennessee in the first round last year, Ohio State would have hosted Arizona State in a No. 6 vs. No. 11 game, with the winner traveling to a bowl site to play No. 3 seed Texas — with the winner of that game playing either No. 2 Georgia, No. 7 Tennessee or No. 10 SMU. Ohio State beat Texas in the Cotton Bowl semifinal 28-14 last postseason.

Oregon, Penn State and Notre Dame would have all been on the opposite side of the bracket as potential national title matchup opponents for the Buckeyes.