Looking at Buckeyes potential seeding in Big Ten Tournament

COLUMBUS — The Big Ten prides itself on its depth. Each of the last three NCAA Tournaments, the league has had at least eight representatives in March Madness.

That said, it hasn’t always translated into NCAA Tournament success. Even though the Big Ten had Final Four teams in 2018 and 2019, it hasn’t had a team make it out of the Elite Eight since.

Nevertheless, the depth of the league remains notable this time of the year, not only because Selection Sunday is less than three weeks away but also because the Big Ten Tournament features a mosh pit of teams that have similar resumes.

In fact, entering Tuesday, there were five Big Ten squads with a 9-7 record in conference play this season: Illinois, Maryland, Iowa, Rutgers and Michigan. Although there are only four regular season games remaining for most Big Ten teams, a lot can change in the next two weeks.

Well, for the overwhelming majority of the conference.

Ohio State, on the other hand, doesn’t have much upward mobility. The Buckeyes started the season 10-3, including 2-0 in league play, before losing 13 of their last 14 games. They have dropped eight games in a row, marking their longest losing streak since 1997-98. That year, Ohio State lost 17 straight contests.

Head coach Chris Holtmann’s team has plummeted to second-to-last in the Big Ten standings. The only team below Ohio State? Minnesota, which has won just one conference game this season, and that was on the road in Columbus on Jan. 12.

The Buckeyes and Golden Gophers are in a league of their own — in a bad way.

Big Ten standings

1. Purdue, 24-4 (13-4)
2. Northwestern, 20-7 (11-5)
3. Indiana, 19-8 (10-6)
4. Illinois, 18-9, (9-7)
5. Maryland, 18-9 (9-7)
6. Iowa, 17-10 (9-7)
7. Rutgers, 17-10 (9-7)
8. Michigan, 15-12 (9-7)
9. Michigan State, 16-10 (8-7)
10. Penn State, 16-11 (7-9)
11. Wisconsin, 15-11 (7-9)
12. Nebraksa, 14-14 (7-10)
13. Ohio State, 11-16 (3-13)
14. Minnesota, 7-18 (1-14)

So…about that upward mobility?

Ohio State and Minnesota are the only Big Ten teams with fewer than seven conference wins this season. Whereas Penn State and Wisconsin — 10th and 11th in the league table, respectively — are mathematically still in play (albeit barely) for the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament, both the Buckeyes and Golden Gophers can’t go any higher than the No. 12 seed, according to PlayoffStatus.com.

Here are Ohio State’s seeding chances, via PlayoffStatus.com:

• No. 12 seed: less than 1% (Penn State would have to lose out)
• No. 13 seed: 89%
• No. 14 seed: 11%

If the Buckeyes lose two or more of their next four games, they are at risk of Minnesota taking the No. 13 seed since the Gophers own the head-to-head tiebreaker. That, however, would require Minnesota to beat a Big Ten team that’s not named Ohio State, something head coach Ben Johnson’s team hasn’t done all season. Plus, the Gophers have lost their last six games by an average of 19.7 points.

So, in all likelihood, the Buckeyes will be the No. 13 seed, regardless of how well they perform these next four games, starting with a Thursday night matchup against Penn State.

Still, Ohio State has the chance to build a bit of momentum going into the conference tourney. Its next three games are at home. The Buckeyes haven’t had a home stand like that since November.

“I feel like it’s real important for us to come home and try to get these next two,” Ohio State captain Isaac Likekele said after Sunday’s loss at Purdue. “Obviously, you want to have momentum going into the Big Ten Tournament. But, at the end of the day, the main focus is just the next game: Thursday against Penn State, that’s just the main focus for us.”

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

First Round: March 8 (Wednesday)

Game 1: No. 12 seed vs. No. 13 seed; 6:30 p.m. ET (BTN/FOX Sports App)

Game 2: No. 11 seed vs. No. 14 seed; 25 minutes after Game 1 (BTN/FOX Sports App)

Second Round: March 9 (Thursday)

Game 3: No. 8 seed vs. No. 9 seed; 12:00 p.m. ET (BTN/FOX Sports App)

Game 4: No. 5 seed vs. Game 1 winner; 25 minutes after Game 1 (BTN/FOX Sports App)

Game 5: No. 7 seed vs. 10 seed; 6:30 p.m. ET (BTN/FOX Sports App)

Game 6: No. 6 seed vs. Game 2 winner; 25 minutes after Game 5 (BTN/FOX Sports App)

Quarterfinals: March 10 (Friday)

Game 7: No. 1 seed vs. Game 3 winner; 12:00 p.m. ET (BTN/FOX Sports App)

Game 8: No. 4 seed vs. Game 4 winner; 25 minutes after Game 7 (BTN/FOX Sports App)

Game 9: No. 2 seed vs. Game 5 winner; 6:30 p.m. ET (BTN/FOX Sports App)

Game 10: No. 3 seed vs. Game 6 winner; 25 minutes after Game 9 (BTN/FOX Sports App)

Semifinals: March 11 (Saturday)

Game 11: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner; 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+)

Game 12: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner; 25 minutes after Game 11 (CBS/Paramount+)

Championship Game: March 12 (Sunday)

Game 11 winner vs. Game 12 winner; 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+)