Scarlet Sunrise: What Buckeyes need for chance to earn at-large NCAA Tournament bid

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What Buckeyes need for chance to earn at-large NCAA Tournament bid

Let’s recap the last two weeks for Ohio State men’s basketball…

• Feb. 14: Chris Holtmann was fired with six regular season games remaining and four years left on his contract after a second straight season of Big Ten woes. Associate head coach and offensive coordinator Jake Diebler was promoted to interim head coach.

• Feb. 18: Led by Bruce Thornton’s 22 points — and Zed Key’s five steals — the Buckeyes upset then-No. 2 Purdue in the Schottenstein Center, which played host to an emotional court storming.

• Feb. 22: Ohio State was slow out of the gates at Minnesota, where it suffered an 88-79 defeat, despite the best efforts of Jamison Battle in his return to Williams Arena.

• Feb. 25: The Buckeyes ended their program-record, 17-game losing streak on the road with their first win an opponent’s arena in 420 days. They did so in Michigan State’s Breslin Center, thanks to Dale Bonner, who beat the buzzer to make a game-winning 3-pointer.

So now, all of a sudden, Ohio State is 16-12, including 6-11 in Big Ten play, with two Quad 1-A wins to its name in the last 10 days. The Buckeyes are 3-1 in Quad 1-A games this season, according to BartTorvik. Their third such win came against Alabama in the Emerald Coast Classic earlier this season. Ohio State’s lone Quad 1-A loss this season was at home versus Wisconsin on Feb. 13.

In general, the Buckeyes are 3-6 in Quad 1 games this season and 1-5 in Quad 2 games. Luckily for Ohio State, it will get a chance to add a pair of Quad 2 wins before the regular season’s end: first at home against Nebraska on Thursday and then on March 10 at Rutgers.

Here’s a quick rundown of how Ohio State compares to the “last four in” in the respective bracket projections of both ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm at this point of the season. As of Tuesday night, Lunardi’s “last four in” included Seton Hall, Virginia, Providence and Gonzaga; Palm’s included Ole Miss, Gonzaga, Utah and Wake Forest.

OHIO STATE
NET Ranking: 66
Q1 Record: 3-6
Overall Record: 16-12

SETON HALL
NET Ranking: 61
Q1 Record: 5-5
Overall Record: 18-9

VIRGINIA
NET Ranking: 48
Q1 Record: 3-4
Overall Record: 20-8

PROVIDENCE
NET Ranking: 54
Q1 Record: 5-6
Overall Record: 18-9

GONZAGA
NET Ranking: 21
Q1 Record: 1-5
Overall Record: 22-6

OLE MISS
NET Ranking: 74
Q1 Record: 4-6
Overall Record: 19-8

UTAH
NET Ranking: 53
Q1 Record: 3-7
Overall Record: 16-11

WAKE FOREST
NET Ranking: 25
Q1 Record: 2-4
Overall Record: 18-9

Remember, unlike RPI, the NET takes into account more than just win percentage. The NET factors in game results, strength of schedule, game location, net offensive and defensive efficiency and the quality of wins and losses.

Ohio State has a higher NET ranking than Ole Miss and is within striking distance of Seton Hall. The Buckeyes have just one Quad 3 loss this season — their 18-point blown lead at home to Indiana — and still have a chance to climb in the metric. They’ll likely need a NET in the high 40s or low 50s for a shot at The Dance.

SO WHAT’S NEXT FOR OHIO STATE?

(1) The Buckeyes need to win all three remaining regular season games: Quad 1 wins are important, but wins in general count for something. Reaching the 20-win mark is effectively a right of passage for NCAA Tournament teams. Even if Ohio State beats Nebraska, Michigan and Rutgers, it will still have to grab a game in the Big Ten Tournament to get to that magic number. Winning out in the regular season is a start, though, and it’s doable considering Nebraska is 2-7 on the road this season and Michigan is the conference’s bottom dweller this year. Rutgers will make for a 50-50 game on the road.

(2) Ohio State needs to win at least one game in the Big Ten Tournament: A first-round exit from the conference tourney, and the Buckeyes’ March Madness hopes are dashed. Even one win in Minneapolis might not be enough. But a trip to the Big Ten quarterfinals — Ohio State made the semis as the 13-seed last year — would put Diebler’s squad in good position. A loss there, and the Buckeyes would still be 21-13 with three-plus Quad 2 or above wins added to their current resume.

(3) Ohio State needs other bubble teams to struggle down the stretch: That’s obviously out of the program’s control, but let’s focus on the Big Ten. Lunardi currently has six teams from the league projected to make the NCAA Tournament. Of those six, the most vulnerable team is Michigan State, which Ohio State just beat. The Spartans have lost back-to-back home games. Whether it’s from Michigan State — and/or other teams like Tom Izzo’s group — the Buckeyes could use some late-season slides around the country to open up spots in the Field of 68.

Biggest question for each Buckeyes player at NFL Combine

Eight Ohio State players are at this year’s NFL Combine: linebackers Tommy Eichenberg and Steele Chambers, defensive tackle Mike Hall Jr., safety Josh Proctor, offensive lineman Matthew Jones, running back Miyan Williams, tight end Cade Stover and wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.

Lettermen Row will be in Indianapolis to talk to all of them as they go through the pre-draft showcase.

But, first, we’re breaking down the biggest question each Buckeyes player is facing ahead of a pivotal week in the draft process.

Check it out here.

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Intel, notes on Ohio State offensive targets after latest On300 update

The latest On300 update is out, and Lettermen Row is unloading its notebook of intel and observations about the Buckeyes’ offensive targets in the 2025 class.

That list includes five-star Jacksonville (Fla.) Mandarin wide receiver Jaime Ffrench, plus four-star Sachse (Texas) wide receiver Kaliq Lockett, as well as a pair of priority tight ends who both have Ohio State visits lined up.

To get the full rundown, including some scoop, head on over here.

Counting Down

Buckeyes vs. Akron: 185 days
Buckeyes vs. Michigan: 276 days

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