Scarlet Sunrise: Ranking 2023 Buckeyes opponents by FPI rating

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Ranking 2023 Buckeyes opponents by FPI rating

Ohio State finished last year No. 4 in the AP Poll, and the Buckeyes are still searching for their first national championship since the 2014 season. But ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has Ohio State as the top team entering the 2023 campaign, five spots ahead of back-to-back Big Ten champion Michigan.

FPI and the Allstate Playoff Predictor give the Buckeyes a 36.7% chance to win it all this season. Alabama is a distant second in that department, clocking in at 20.4%. And Georgia, which has won the last two national titles, is third at 19.1%.

Before we go any further…

Here’s how ESPN describes FPI and the Allstate Playoff Predictor:

“FPI is our season-long ratings and projections system. In the preseason it relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating. We then use those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times, resulting in our projections.

“In addition, the Allstate Playoff Predictor uses those simulations to forecast the playoff committee’s selection process, based on the committee’s past behavior. All of which combined allows us to forecast a team’s projected win total, chance to win its conference, reach the CFP and win the national championship.”

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics

As you might have guessed, FPI pegs the Buckeyes as the favorite to win each of their regular season games, even a Nov. 25 road contest against Michigan.

But which of Ohio State’s 2023 opponents poses the biggest threat, according to FPI?

Here’s a ranking of all 11 of the Buckeyes’ regular season FBS opponents this year, by FPI rating:

1. Michigan: 6th (21.4)
2. Notre Dame: 9th (18.4)
3. Penn State: 10th (17.5)
4. Wisconsin: 20th (12.3)
5. Michigan State: 31st (8.7)
6. Minnesota: 33rd (7.7)
7. Maryland: 44th (5.6)
8. Purdue: 50th (4.4)
9. Indiana: 75th (-2.9)
10. Rutgers: 78th (-3.2)
11. Western Kentucky: 88th (-5.3)

FPI projects that only two Ohio State opponents this fall have greater than a 20% chance to top the Buckeyes: Notre Dame in Week 4 (20.7%) and Michigan in Week 13 (28.6%).

Both of those games are on the road.

That said, FPI projections are fluid. They can change, and will probably change to some degree, before September rolls around.

Staff Picks: Post-spring Ohio State game-by-game predictions for 2023

Above is the advanced analytics rundown of every game of the Ohio State 2023 campaign. But what about the Buckeyes’ fall slate?

Will Ohio State run the table? Will they make the College Football Playoff again? What about The Game, who wins that?

Lettermen Row team reporter Andy Backstrom and recruiting analyst Matt Parker are making post-spring, game-by-game predictions for this season.

For those staff picks, go here.

What I’m hearing after massive Ohio State official visit weekend

Ohio State had several visitors over the weekend, 15 of whom were on official visits. To say it was a big recruiting weekend in Columbus would be an understatement.

The busy month of June, during which the program will continue to host recruiting camps for high schoolers, is well underway.

Lettermen Row has some intel heading into this week from the latest Buckeyes happenings on the recruiting trail.

Check it out here.

RELATED

• Five storylines ahead of massive Ohio State official weekend

Counting down

Buckeyes vs. Indiana: 83 days

Buckeyes vs. Michigan: 167 days

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