Buckeyes ESPN FPI favorites to win national championship

COLUMBUS — Ohio State has the top 2024 recruiting class right now, according to the On3 Industry Ranking. And, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index and the Allstate Playoff Predictor, the Buckeyes are the national title favorites for this coming season.

FPI gives Ohio State a 37% chance to take home the national championship. For reference, Alabama is at 20% and back-to-back reigning champion Georgia is at 19%.

Here’s how ESPN describes FPI and the Allstate Playoff Predictor:

“FPI is our season-long ratings and projections system. In the preseason it relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating. We then use those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times, resulting in our projections.

“In addition, the Allstate Playoff Predictor uses those simulations to forecast the playoff committee’s selection process, based on the committee’s past behavior. All of which combined allows us to forecast a team’s projected win total, chance to win its conference, reach the CFP and win the national championship.”

Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics

FPI Top 10

Note: Team FPI rating is parentheses

1. Ohio State (31.5)
2. Alabama (28.2)
3. Georgia (27.4)
4. LSU (22.1)
5. Texas (21.9)
6. Michigan (21.4)
7. USC (19.9)
8. Clemson (19.4)
9. Notre Dame (18.4)
10. Penn State (17.5)

Ohio State has the best non-quarterback offensive returning production in the country, per ESPN’s Seth Walder, and that carries a lot of weight here. The Buckeyes are bringing back a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka. They also have tight end Cade Stover in the fold again — last year, Stover became the first Ohio State tight end to reel in at least 30 receptions in a season since Ben Hartsock in 2003.

Plus, fifth-year Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day’s squad has a running back room that rolls five deep. Four of those backs had at least one game in 2022 where they led the team in rushing.

Ohio State, however, has to replace three soon-to-be NFL offensive linemen, plus a two-time Heisman Trophy winning quarterback. FPI appears confident in expected starter Kyle McCord, a former five-star quarterback recruit, considering the model takes into account players’ recruiting grades.

On the other side of the ball, FPI ranks the Buckeyes third nationally, behind Alabama and Georgia. But the defensive margin between the Buckeyes and SEC powers isn’t as significant as the offensive margin between that trio, hence why Ohio State is atop the FPI overall rating leaderboard at the moment, Walder explains.

Teams with best chance to win national title

Note: This list comes from ESPN analytics

1. Ohio State (37%)
2. Alabama (20%)
3. Georgia (19%)
4. Texas (6%)
5. LSU (4%)
6. Michigan (4%)
7. Clemson (3%)
8. USC (3%)
9. Notre Dame (2%)
10. Penn State (<1%)

There’s a 76% chance either Ohio State, Alabama or Georgia wins the national title next season, according to ESPN analytics. Each of them has at least a 60% chance of making the College Football Playoff, per ESPN analytics.

Georgia and Alabama have accounted for the last three national titles, and those schools played each other for the championship during the 2021 season.

Ohio State, meanwhile, made the national title game at the end of the COVID-19 shortened 2020 season but lost to Alabama, 52-24. The Buckeyes are searching for their first national championship since the 2014 season.

FPI numbers to know for Buckeyes…

• Projected win total: 11.8 (1st nationally)

• Chance of running the table: 34.3% (1st)

• Chance of at least six wins: 100% (T-1st)

• Chance of winning division: 75.5% (2nd)

• Chance of winning conference: 71.2% (1st)

• Chance of making the CFP: 82.2% (1st)

• Chance of making the national title game: 57.2% (1st)

• Chance of winning the national championship: 36.7% (1st)