Ohio State Opponent Preview: Week 7 vs. Purdue

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — Purdue moved the ball last week at Iowa. Actually, the Boilermakers outgained the Hawkeyes by more than 50 yards of total offense and converted 9-of-19 third downs.

But bad sacks, two turnovers and six penalties held Purdue back in a 20-14 loss.

The Boilermakers have shot themselves in the foot far too often in their first year under head coach Ryan Walters, who was hired last December after coordinating an impressive Illinois defense in 2021-22.

Purdue came into the week tied for 103rd in the FBS in turnover margin per game (-0.5) and 91st in penalty yards per game (57.2).

It can’t afford those mistakes this week when it hosts No. 3 Ohio State on a rainy Saturday in Ross-Ade Stadium.

When is Ohio State playing Purdue?

Saturday, Oct. 14, 12 p.m. E.T.

Where is Ohio State playing Purdue?

Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, Indiana

Ohio State-Purdue Series history

Ohio State leads the all-time series, 40-15-2. The teams have played just twice in the last decade, starting with an iconic upset in a sold-out Ross-Ade Stadium in 2018. Purdue thumped the then-No. 2 Buckeyes, 49-20, effectively knocking Ohio State out of College Football Playoff contention. The Boilermakers were playing for Tyler Trent, a 20-year-old Purdue student and Boilermakers Superfan who was dealing with osteosarcoma, a rare form of bone cancer. Trent passed in 2019, but his memory — and his team’s remarkable 29-point win over Ohio State — is an integral part of Purdue history.

Ohio State hosted Purdue back in 2021, and the Buckeyes came away with a 59-31 win. That time, it was a top-20 matchup between the Big Ten crossover opponents. The stars of the show in 2018 were Purdue quarterback David Blough, wide receiver Rondale Moore and running back D.J. Knox. In 2021, however, Buckeyes playmakers stole the spotlight, namely quarterback C.J. Stroud, wideout Garrett Wilson and the running back duo of Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson.

Breaking down the Boilermakers

Purdue’s Record: 2-4 (1-2 Big Ten)

Offense: Offensive coordinator Graham Harrell brought the air raid offense to Purdue this year, and it’s been, well, so-so in 2023. The Boilermakers are averaging 25.7 points per game, which puts them smack dab in the middle of the Big Ten in scoring offense. Redshirt junior quarterback Hudson Card transferred in from Texas and has had his fair share of ups and downs. Card struggled last week versus Iowa and isn’t 100% right now after getting banged up against Illinois the week prior. That said, he can definitely drive the ball downfield. He’s tied for the second-most Pro Football Focus “big time throws” on attempts with 20-plus air yards of any Big Ten quarterback this season. But he’s also holding the rock longer than any signal caller in the league (3.06 seconds per dropback), per PFF, and he’s committed five interceptions. Card is a dual threat: His 13-carry, 54-yard outing against Wisconsin jumps out, and he has three rushing scores on the year.

Purdue will be without running back Tyrone Tracy Jr., who leads the Boilermakers with five rushing touchdowns this season. He and Devin Mockobee (87 carries, 368 rushing yards, four scores) have taken the lion’s share of rushing attempts in 2023. Tracy’s injury is one of several depleting this Purdue squad. The Boilermakers are also missing wide receiver Jahmal Edrine — who suffered a season-ending knee injury in preseason — tight end Max Klare and right tackle Marcus Mbow. With Mbow out, Purdue turned to NAIA Indiana Wesleyan grad transfer Ben Farrell last week at Iowa. Farrell gave up two pressures in eight pass blocking snaps, according to PFF. That doesn’t bode well for a Boilermakers team that’s tied for 11th in the Big Ten with 2.33 sacks per game allowed.

Purdue doesn’t have a stud wideout that sceams NFL like in years past. Deion Burks has burners, though, and he’s atop the team leaderboard with 396 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Along with Burks, fellow wideouts Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen and TJ Sheffield each have at least 24 receptions. Keep your eyes peeled for tight end Garrett Miller, too. He’s got 11 grabs for 110 yards plus a touchdown and, with Klare sidelined, could be in for a bigger role Saturday.

Defense: Walters is a defensive head coach, and his fingerprints are all over this unique-looking Purdue defense that features a five-man front, which is bookended with outside linebackers. Those outside linebackers — Kydran Jenkins and Nic Scourton — are among the best EDGEs in the Big Ten right now. Jenkins is first in the league with 4.0 sacks, and Scourton isn’t far behind with 3.5. Together, they’ve combined for 50 pressures this season, per PFF. Granted Ohio State has played one fewer game than the Boilemakers, but, as a team, the Buckeyes have 74 pressures in 2023.

Getting to the quarterback is one of the few things this Purdue group does exceptionally well. The Boilermakers are also strong on the interior of the defensive line, where Isaiah Nichols stands out — he’s registered 10 pressures and 15 total tackles so far. Despite the Boilermakers’ disruptive tendencies in the trenches, they’re 87th nationally and 11th in the Big Ten with 153.8 rushing yards per game allowed. It doesn’t help that inside linebackers OC Brothers and Yanni Karlaftis have a combined 10 missed tackles this season and both have PFF missed tackle rates north of 17%. Brothers’ status was up in the air this week. Clyde Washington could start alongside Karlaftis versus the Buckeyes.

There is a youth movement going on in the back end at the moment. True freshman free safety Dillon Thieneman and cornerback Derrick Rogers Jr. are in line to start against Ohio State. Thieneman has been starting, and starring, for Purdue all season. He leads the team with 53 total tackles, including 41 solos, not to mention his three interceptions. Rogers is filling in for Penn State transfer Marquis Wilson, who is now out for the year. Opposite Rogers will be Markevious Brown, who has given up 21 catches on 35 targets — both team highs — for 294 yards and two scores, according to PFF. Keep in mind, Purdue has conceded 22 pass plays of 20-plus yards this year, four more than any other Big Ten team.

Special Teams: Purdue starting place kicker Ben Freehill has been out for the last month. Expect Julio Macias, a redshirt freshman who is 2-of-3 on field goals — with his miss coming from beyond 40 — and 9-of-10 on PATs. Punter Jack Ansell has the third-most touchbacks in the Big Ten this year with three. On the other hand, his nine punts inside the 20 are tied for fourth in the conference. Watch out for Sheffield in the punt return game: He’s second in the Big Ten with an average of 11.2 yards per return, and he’s got a long of 48 yards this season.

Numbers to know

-0.50 — turnover margin per game posted by Purdue this season, which, at the start of the week, was tied for 103rd nationally.

45.45% — third down conversion rate logged by the Boilermakers this year. Only four other Big Ten teams are moving the chains on third down at a higher clip.

3.0 — sacks per game notched by Walter’s team. Purdue is tied for 21st in the FBS in that category.

ESPN FPI

The database gives Ohio State a 94.1% chance of beating Purdue in Week 7.

Outlook

To pull off another upset over Ohio State in Ross-Ade Stadium, the Boilermakers can’t let turnovers and penalties get in their way. They’ll have to win the turnover battle and probably make a game-changing play or two on special teams. That’s a big ask, especially with inclement weather in the forecast. Ohio State can’t come out sleepwalking like it did against Maryland. That’s a bad habit to start with a top-10 showdown against Penn State looming.