Ohio State clocks in at No. 4 in preseason ESPN FPI rankings

COLUMBUS — Ohio State is coming off its lowest final AP Poll ranking since 2013. But, after ending the season on a two-game losing streak for the second year in a row, the Buckeyes find themselves with their most talented roster since at least 2019.

They returned 11 starter-level and draft-eligible players, brought in six scholarship players from the transfer portal — including a potential starting quarterback, one of the best running backs in the nation and arguably the best safety in college football — and revamped their coaching staff.

Ohio State is always contending for the national championship, except this year the urgency is heightened, especially considering rival Michigan just won it all last year.

ESPN released its 2024 preseason Football Power Index (FPI) rankings this week, and the FPI sees the Buckeyes as a viable candidate to hoist the College Football Playoff trophy in the first-ever 12-team playoff.

That said, Ohio State is only fourth in this year’s preseason FPI rankings. At the moment, the Buckeyes are behind Georgia, Oregon and Texas.

In his FPI release piece for ESPN, Neil Paine broke down what the FPI really boils down to…

“The FPI is a power rating that tracks each team’s strength relative to an average FBS squad. Teams are rated on offense, defense and special teams, with the values representing points per game. (So that means Georgia is rated as nearly 27 points per game better than the average team, which is pretty good!)

“Those numbers are then used to simulate the season schedule 20,000 times, including the conference championships and the CFP bracket, simulating the selection process using an algorithm that mimics the way the committee typically picks teams. Finally, once we have those results, we can say how often each team wins its conference, makes the playoff and achieves other milestones.”

Neil Paine, ESPN

FPI Top 10

Note: Team FPI rating is parentheses

1. Georgia (26.8)
2. Oregon (24.5)
3. Texas (22.9)
4. Ohio State (22.2)
5. Alabama (21.9)
6. Penn State (19.8)
7. Notre Dame (19.0)
8. Oklahoma (17.2)
9. Tennessee (16.6)
10. Missouri (15.4)

+ Ohio State has two regular season opponents in the top 10: The Buckeyes will play Oregon — the FPI’s No. 2 team — on Oct. 12. That game will be played in Eugene. Ohio State hasn’t played at Oregon since the 1967 season. The Buckeyes lead the all-time series, 9-1, but the Ducks pulled off the upset just three seasons ago in Columbus.

+ Ohio State will also hit the road to play Penn State — the FPI’s No. 6 team — on Nov. 2. The Buckeyes have won seven straight games in the series and lead all-time, 24-14. Ohio State and Penn State will no longer play annually, but they are scheduled to face off in 2024 and 2025.

+ Keep in mind: Last offseason, Ohio State was the FPI’s No. 1 team, and while the Buckeyes were at one point No. 1 in the CFP rankings during a rocky 2023 campaign, they ended up missing the playoff.

Teams with best chance to win national title

Note: This list comes from ESPN Analytics

1. Georgia (21%)
2. Oregon (12.8%)
3. Texas (11.4%)
4. Ohio State (10.5%)
5. Alabama (8.5%)
6. Penn State (6.6%)
7. Notre Dame (4.8%)
8. Oklahoma (2.8%)
9. Tennessee (2.7%)
10. Missouri (2.2%)

+ Georgia is the clear favorite to win the national title, according to the FPI. The Bulldogs’ 29-game win streak came to an end in last year’s SEC Championship, and Alabama snuck into the then-four-team field. Head coach Kirby Smart’s squad will be on a revenge tour of sorts in 2024 after winning back-to-back national championships in 2021 and 2022 but then watching the CFP from home last year.

+ There’s a 55.7% Georgia, Oregon, Texas or Ohio State wins the 12-team CFP, according to ESPN Analytics. Each of them has at least a 67.2% chance of making the expanded CFP, per ESPN Analytics.

+ The SEC and Big Ten lead the charge in terms of national title odds. As Paine points out in his piece, the FPI projects the SEC to have a 53% chance of producing the champion and the Big Ten to have a 32% chance of producing the champion.

+ Paine also notes that 18 teams have at least a 20% chance to make the CFP, according to the FPI. For reference, in last year’s preseason model, the FPI had just eight teams with those odds. That’s the beauty of the expanded playoff: more parity, at least as far as CFP teams go.

Teams with best chance to secure a first-round bye

Note: This list comes from ESPN Analytics

1. Oregon (36.2%)
2. Georgia (33.1%)
3. Ohio State (24.9%)
4. Texas (23.7%)
5. Penn State (22.8%)
6. Florida State (21.7%)
7. Clemson (15.5%)
8. Kansas (14.5%)
9. Alabama (14.3%)
10. Kansas State (11.9%)

+ Oregon, notably, has the best odds of any power conference team to win its conference (37.5%), according to the FPI. The Ducks also have the second-highest odds of going undefeated (15.7%), per the FPI.

+ Paine calculated the “biggest games” of the season by simply combining opposing teams’ FPI ratings and ranking the top-20 highest combined ratings among 2024 scheduled opponents. By that metric, Ohio State has three games in the top 20: Week 7 at Oregon (third), Week 10 at Penn State (fourth) and Week 14 against Michigan (16th).

FPI numbers to know for 2024 Buckeyes…

• Projected win total: 10.2 (3rd nationally)
• Chance of running the table: 7.5% (4th)
• Chance of at least six wins: 99.5% (2nd)
• Chance of winning conference: 25.7% (7th nationally, 2nd Big Ten)
• Chance of making the CFP: 67.2% (4th)
• Chance of making the national title game: 19.0% (4th)
• Chance of winning the national championship: 10.5% (4th)
• Remaining strength of schedule: 16th (5th Big Ten)