Ohio State Opponent Preview: Week 9 vs. Wisconsin

MADISON, Wis. — Ohio State is coming off its second top-10 win of the season — an emotional, 20-12 triumph over then-No. 7 Penn State at home — and all the talk this week from the national media, not to mention sports fans everywhere, has been about the alleged sign-stealing operation at Michigan.

In other words, the high of last week’s win plus the distraction of this week’s happenings up north are the perfect recipe for a letdown. Ohio State, of course, is doing everything it can to prevent one of those.

Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles declined to comment about the Michigan situation, and Ohio State players discussed the challenges that their Week 9 opponent, Big Ten West-leading Wisconsin presents Saturday night on the road.

The Big Ten crossover meeting is the first of two consecutive games away from the Horseshoe for the Buckeyes. They’ll be facing a Badgers team in cold Madison temperatures on Halloween Weekend in Camp Randall Stadium, one of the most hostile environments in college football.

What’s more, Wisconsin is led by former Ohio State nose guard Luke Fickell, who also spent 15 years coaching the Buckeyes. So while No. 3 Ohio State has more talent than Wisconsin, the Buckeyes are up against an upset-minded Badgers squad that has a lot to play for, including a division title.

Lettermen Row is breaking down what to expect from this year’s Wisconsin team.

When is Ohio State playing Wisconsin?

Saturday, Oct. 28, 7:30 p.m. E.T.

Where is Ohio State playing Wisconsin?

Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, Wisconsin

Ohio State-Wisconsin Series history

Ohio State leads the all-time series, 62-18-5. The Buckeyes have won nine straight games against the Badgers, dating back to the 2011 season. In that span, Ohio State has defeated Wisconsin three times in the Big Ten Championship: 59-0 in 2014, 27-21 in 2017 and 34-21 in 2019.

Wisconsin has played Ohio State close over the last decade-plus. Of those nine aforementioned games, five were decided by one score. Except, lately, things haven’t been as dramatic. Last year, for instance, the Buckeyes handled Wisconsin at home under the lights, 52-21. Quarterback C.J. Stroud threw for five touchdowns, and both TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams eclipsed the 100-yard mark on the ground. Ohio State scored touchdowns on each of its first four drives, ultimately staking itself to a 31-7 lead and then finishing off a 50 burger in the second half.

It was a much different story the last time the Buckeyes were in Madison — that 2016 meeting saw the Buckeyes trail, 16-6, at intermission and need to pull out a 30-23 overtime win in Camp Randall. The game had its fair share of heavy rain, but quarterback J.T. Barrett accounted for three total touchdowns after halftime, including a seven-yard touchdown pass in overtime to wideout Noah Brown. Defensive end Tyquan Lewis sealed the win with a sack on 4th-and-Goal from the Ohio State 4-yard line.

Breaking down the Badgers

Wisconsin’s Record: 5-2 (3-1 Big Ten)

Offense: Fickell hired offensive coordinator Phil Longo, who brought the “air raid” offense to Wisconsin — well, kind of. The former North Carolina and Ole Miss OC came to Madison with a plan to spread the Badgers out offensively. But, in reality, Wisconsin hasn’t deviated significantly from what has been its bread and butter for years: a rushing attack spearheaded by an NFL prospect running back. Wisconsin has had seven more run plays (259) than pass plays (252) in 2023. Tailback Braelon Allen is on track for his third 1,000-yard season. And he’s responsible for 28.8% of the Badgers’ total yardage this year. Allen offers a nice blend of speed and power at 6-foot-2, 245 pounds. He’s broken 41 tackles this season, the second most of any running back in the Big Ten, according to Pro Football Focus. He has to carry the load more than ever now that starting quarterback Tanner Mordecai — a veteran transfer from SMU — is out with a broken hand.

During backup Braedyn Locke’s first start last week at Illinois, Allen carried the ball a season-high 29 times for 145 yards and a score. Locke is a former three-star prospect who started his career at Mississippi State. The redshirt freshman completed just 21-of-41 attempts last week against the Fighting Illini, except he did throw for 240 yards and two scores while piloting an 18-point comeback victory. Locke doesn’t necessarily have a star wideout at his disposal. What he does have, though, is five receivers with 10 or more receptions this season. Three of those five are transfers: Will Pauling (37 catches, 398 receiving yards and one touchdown) from Cincinnati, Bryson Green (17 catches, 218 receiving yards) from Oklahoma State and C.J. Williams (11 catches, 109 receiving yards) from USC. It’s important to keep an eye on veteran Chimere Dike, too: He’s got 16 receptions for 282 yards and a score. Skyler Bell (21 catches, 184 receiving yards, one touchdown), like Pauling, can get open in the slot as well.

More so than the concerted effort to add receiving options, this year has been about taking the first step in rebuilding the Wisconsin offensive line. It’s a group bookended by offensive tackles Jack Nelson and Riley Mahlman — who both stand 6-foot-7 or taller — and that’s allowing 1.43 sacks per game, the fifth fewest in the Big Ten. The Badgers would like to run block better, but they are 25th nationally in PFF run blocking grade (68.7). Something to watch for: Michael Furtney and Trey Wedig have been rotating at right guard this season alongside left guard Joe Huber.

Defense: Under first-year Wisconsin defensive coordinator Mike Tressel — the nephew of former Buckeyes head coach Jim Tressel — the Badgers have pivoted to a 3-3-5 defense, a different look compared to their 2-4-5 formation under previous DC Jim Leonhard. The 3-3-5 hinges on creative blitzing and versatility at the second and third levels of the defense. Perhaps most notably, Tressel will use six defensive backs on the field at once and deploy one of them, usually safety Hunter Wohler, as a linebacker. That’s why it’s no surprise that Wohler leads the Badgers with 70 total tackles this season, including 45 solos and a sack, not to mention his four passes defended and two interceptions.

Wisconsin is allowing 196.3 passing yards per game this season, good for 29th nationally. But it’s hard to tell how good, or perhaps average, the Badgers are in that department, considering they allowed 383 yards through the air to Georgia Southern last month but have given up a total of 348 passing yards over the last three games. Granted those last three games have come against Rutgers, Iowa and Illinois — schools that rank 125th, 131st and 70th, respectively, in passing offense — but it’s a head turning feat nonetheless. Cornerback Ricardo Hallman stands out. He’s been targeted 30 times and has allowed only 16 receptions for 203 yards while picking off four passes and not giving up a single touchdown, per PFF. But both “nickel” corner Jason Maitre — a grad transfer from Boston College — and outside corner Alexander Smith — who, like Maitre, is also in his sixth year — are allowing more than 65% of passes they’ve been targeted on to be caught this season, according to PFF.

The top pressure getters for the Badgers are Darryl Peterson (21 pressures) and C.J. Goetz (19 pressures). They’re listed as linebackers, but they’re really EDGE players. Wisconsin, as a team, is 36th nationally with a pressure rate of 31.3%, according to Sports Info Solutions. The Badgers are averaging 2.57 sacks per game, tied for the 37th most in the FBS. Defensive end James Thompson Jr. is another name to know. He’s having most productive season yet with 19 total tackles and 4.5 tackles for loss, including 3.0 sacks. Of course, this Wisconsin defense wouldn’t be complete without its inside linebackers. Jake Chaney trails only Wohler with 44 total tackles, but Maema Njongmeta is tops on the team with a PFF run defense grade of 80.6. Jordan Turner can’t be overlooked, either. He’s got 25 total tackles and two passes defended. A big question Saturday will be if Ohio State can get going in the run game — after all, the Badgers are just 10th in the Big Ten with 137.9 yards per game allowed on the ground.

Special Teams: Nathanial Vakos is one of the better kickers in the Big Ten right now. He’s following up an impressive true freshman campaign at Ohio with an 11-of-12 start on field goals as a sophomore. Vakos’ lone miss came from 50 plus, but he also made a season-long 52 yarder against Iowa. Atticus Bertrams shoulders the punting duties for the Badgers. He’s 10th in the conference in punt average (42.4 yards per punt), but his 13 boots inside the opponent’s 20-yard line are fourth most in the Big Ten. In the return game, Dike runs the show, both on kickoffs and punts. He’s fifth in the league with 7.1 yards per punt return.

Numbers to know

7 — fumbles lost by Wisconsin this season. Only nine teams in the country have lost more. That’s notable considering Wisconsin will likely need to win the turnover battle for a chance to upset Ohio State.

18.3 — points per game allowed by the Badgers this season. They have the 20th-best scoring defense in the nation.

800 — yards from scrimmage running back Braelon Allen has recorded this season: 704 on the ground and 96 receiving.

ESPN FPI

The database gives Ohio State a 87.7% chance of beating Wisconsin in Week 9.

Outlook

If an upset is to be staged in Camp Randall Saturday night, Wisconsin is going to have to play a clean game. The Badgers — who came into the week tied for 78th with a -0.14 turnover margin per game — have had only one game this year without a giveaway. Wisconsin’s best shot is taking an early lead by gashing Ohio State in the run game early, which the Buckeyes have been susceptible to at times, and then relying on a raucous crowd to disrupt the Buckeyes’ offense and keep the Badgers in the game. Ohio State should be able to handle business on the road. Everyone will be watching if this Buckeyes offense can finally play a complete game.