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Ohio State opponent preview: Indiana

IMG_7408by:Andy Backstrom•11/09/22•

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Indiana has lost six straight games after a 3-0 start this season. (Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

Indiana was one of the best stories of the 2020 season. In Tom Allen’s fourth full year as head coach, the Hoosiers ascended to No. 9 in the nation and even gave Ohio State a game in the Horseshoe. That 45-32 defeat was just one of two losses Indiana suffered in the COVID-19 affected season.

It finished 6-2 and No. 12 in the AP Poll. And that’s with only playing conference games in the regular season. To put that in perspective, Indiana hadn’t achieved a six-win Big Ten campaign since 1987.

That kind of success was short-lived. Actually, the Hoosiers haven’t enjoyed much of any success since.

Indiana went 2-10 last season — the program’s worst record since 2011 — and was missing longtime quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (now starring at Washington) the final seven games of the year after he went down with a season-ending acromioclavicular (AC) joint separation in his left shoulder.

Things haven’t really improved in Bloomington. Yes, Indiana has a league win this time around and three overall victories, but they’re giving up the most points per game (32.2) in the Big Ten, and they lack the offensive firepower to consistently make up that ground. Following a 3-0 start — which included a now-impressive win over Illinois — the Hoosiers have dropped six consecutive games.

When is Ohio State playing Indiana?

Saturday, Nov. 12, 12 p.m.

Where is Ohio State playing Indiana?

Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio

Series history

Ohio State leads the all-time series, 77-12-5. Not only that, but the Buckeyes are riding a 26-game win streak against the Hoosiers, with Indiana’s last victory coming in 1988 (the teams tied in 1990). Ohio State head coach Ryan Day is 3-0 versus the Hoosiers in his now-four-year run. Two of those games were decided by at least 41 points. The outlier was the 2020 matchup, a top-10 showdown in Columbus that saw Penix air it out for 491 yards and five touchdowns. Last year, Day’s squad notched a 54-7 victory on the road. Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud completed 21 passes, and four of them went for touchdowns. Both TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams found the end zone, and, thanks to a 30-point Buckeyes second quarter, the game was over at halftime.

Breaking down the 2022 Hoosiers

Indiana’s 2022 Record: 3-6 (1-5 Big Ten)

Offense: Indiana is a great example of how you can throw the ball for a bunch of yards — the Hoosiers are fifth in the Big Ten in passing offense — but still be very inefficient on that side of the ball. Your jaw will drop when you look at how many times Missouri transfer quarterback Connor Bazelak has attempted a pass this season. In eight games — he missed last week’s Penn State matchup with an undisclosed injury — Bazelak has thrown 379 passes, in other words, 47.4 per game. There’s been just one game this season where he’s had fewer than 42 attempts, and that was in a 35-22 win over FCS Idaho. He even had 66 attempts in a Sept. 24 loss to Cincinnati.

The problem is, Indiana is last in the Big Ten and fifth-to-last in the FBS in yards per pass attempt (5.5). It doesn’t help that the Hoosiers can’t really run the ball. They’re second-to-last in the country in rushing offense, in front of only Boston College. Indiana is averaging a mere 2.64 yards per carry. That effort is led by senior running backs Shaun Shivers and Josh Henderson. Shivers is tops on the team with 106 carries, but he has combined for -3 rushing yards in his last two games. Whereas, in that same span, Henderson has picked up 75 yards on 11 carries. It’s tough sledding for the duo, which is running behind an offensive line that ranks 123rd nationally in Pro Football Focus run blocking grade (46.4). That group hasn’t been good in pass protection, either. Indiana is 111th nationally with 28 sacks allowed this season. Allen kept O-Line coach Darren Hiller this past offseason but reached a breaking point, firing Hiller after the Hoosiers gave up seven sacks against Michigan on Oct. 8 (former Northern Illinois and Temple head coach Rod Carey has taken over that job in the interim).

So, in some ways, the quick passing game is a pseudo run game for the Hoosiers. After all, with Bazelak at the helm, 13.2% of Indiana’s passes have been screens, and more than half of its pass attempts have come either behind the line of scrimmage or in the 0-9 yards range, per PFF. That said, that’s also because Bazelak has to get the ball out quick with a suspect O-Line. Indiana does have some capable receivers. Junior Cam Camper, who stands 6-foot-2, leads the team with 46 catches and 569 receiving yards. Senior Emery Simmons isn’t too far behind with 32 receptions for 335 yards. Tight end A.J. Barner is another name to know. He’s a 6-foot-6 target with 20 catches for 156 yards, including a long of 43 yards. It’s notable as well that Henderson has three receiving touchdowns out of the backfield.

Defense: There has been a revolving door at defensive coordinator for Indiana. That’s been tough for Allen, who held that position in 2016 before being promoted to head coach. Allen made his return to defensive play-calling this year, despite hiring Chad Wilt as his DC. Allen wanted to restore the disruptive play style the Hoosiers flashed in 2020, when they forced 20 turnovers in just eight games. Sacks, pressures and takeaways are the name of the game for Allen’s 4-2-5 defenses. Those things just haven’t come in 2022, however. Indiana is tied for 88th nationally in turnovers gained (11). The Hoosiers are tied for 87th in sacks per game (1.89). Plus, they rank last in the Big Ten in PFF pass rushing grade (61.0).

Indiana is allowing heaps of points, and it’s largely because it can’t stop the pass. The Hoosiers are 107th in yards per game allowed through the air (264.4). What’s more, they’ve conceded 21 passing touchdowns this year, tied for the seventh most in the country. Tiawan Mullen has the highest PFF coverage grade (64.0) of any Hoosiers corner. The senior is their best cover DB — but even he has given up 27 receptions on 42 targets for 297 yards and eight touchdowns in 2022.

The thing is, Indiana isn’t much better against the run. The Hoosiers’ rushing defense stats are kind of funky, though. They’re allowing 157.89 yards per game on the ground but are 37th in run D success rate (36.8%), according to Parker Fleming of Football Outsiders. And that’s because Indiana is giving up just 3.61 yards per rush, which is 31st in the FBS, but it has been shredded by the big play. Opponents have cashed in on seven runs of 30-plus yards. The only other Big Ten team that’s allowed that many this season is Northwestern. Indiana is probably strongest defensively at the linebacker position. Cam Jones is the Hoosiers’ best PFF run defender (88.2 grade), and he’s second on the team in total tackles (54), behind only fellow backer Aaron Casey (69).

Special Teams: One area Indiana doesn’t have to worry about is place kicker. Redshirt senior Charles Campbell is a perfect 20-of-20 on PATs this season, and he’s 12-of-15 on field goals. Still, even though his long is 51 yards, he has two misses inside 40 in 2022. James Evans has done his job in the punting department, averaging 44.8 yards per boot, good for fifth in the league. Watch out for true freshman Jaylin Lucas in the kick return game. Lucas, a 5-foot-9 running back, is averaging 28.2 yards per kick return and housed a kickoff against Rutgers earlier this season.

Numbers to know

41.96% — conversion rate of Indiana’s opponents on third down this season. That’s 11th in the Big Ten.

5.5 — yards per pass attempt recorded by Indiana quarterback Connor Bazelak in 2022. The Missouri transfer has been attempting a shade over 47 passes per game this year.

51 — tackles for loss Indiana has posted this season, tied for seventh most in the Big Ten. As much as the Hoosiers have struggled defensively this year, the unit has had its moments in run defense.

ESPN FPI

The database gives Ohio State a 98.4% chance of beating Indiana in Week 11.

Outlook

Indiana is a team trying to do anything it can to snap a six-game skid. That losing streak will almost certainly continue at Ohio State, but that won’t stop Allen from experimenting. He mentioned in his press conference this week that redshirt sophomore quarterback Dexter Williams II — who got a chance to prove himself when Bazelak was sidelined — could see snaps down the line. Maybe that’s Saturday in Columbus. Either way, Indiana will have its hands full with an Ohio State squad that’s looking to make a statement offensively after the wind limited its potent attack last weekend in Evanston.

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