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OU has toughest 2025 schedule in college football, per ESPN analytics

headshotby:George Stoia05/23/25

GeorgeStoia

Brent Venables
Brent Venables (Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images)

No other college football team will face a more difficult schedule than OU in 2025.

According to ESPN’s SP+ advanced analytics, the Sooners have the toughest schedule in the country. Oklahoma ranked 16th in ESPN’s latest post-spring rankings, which are based on returning production, recent recruiting and recent history. These analytics project OU to win just 6.9 games in 2025 due to its difficult schedule.

The Sooners are set to face nine teams in the SP+ top 25: No. 2 Alabama, No. 5 Texas, No. 9 LSU, No. 10 Michigan, No. 11 Ole Miss, No. 13 Tennessee, No. 17 South Carolina, No. 21 Missouri and No. 25 Auburn. For comparison, Oklahoma’s rival Texas, will face five opponents in the top 25, owning the 12th toughest schedule.

The analytics also predicted how the Sooners will fare on offense, defense and special teams in 2025. OU is projected to have the 25th best offense, scoring 33.3 points per game. The 13th best defense, holding opponents to 16.7 points per game. And the 31st best special teams. Last year, Oklahoma finished 75th on offense, 17th on defense and 27th on special teams.

The SP+ analytics have quickly become one of the more utilized rankings in the sport. But they aren’t always the best for predictions. Last year’s post-spring top 25 included Alabama at No. 5, Michigan at No. 6 and Florida State at No. 12. All three had disappointing seasons and missed the 12-team College Football Playoff. It also had Arizona State at No. 88. The Sun Devils were the surprise of the season, winning the Big 12 and making the playoff.

OU is hoping to be one of those surprise teams this season. With the addition of quarterback John Mateer and offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, both from Washington State, there is a lot of optimism in Norman. But the Sooners will have to work through undoubtedly one of the toughest schedules in recent memory.

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