The Final Fearless 20 Prediction for Sooners

With the season less than a month away it’s time to look into my crystal ball and try to see what the Sooners are looking like in 2023. Who will be the breakout stars? Who will Oklahoma have to avoid tripping up against? The Sooners are one of the most interesting teams in the country for 2023 and it’s time to see what could be on the horizon. And as such it’s time for the Fearless 20, where I make 20 picks for the upcoming season.

20. Another Lopsided Bedlam Win is Coming

Breakdown: If I’m being honest this wouldn’t have been on my list until a few weeks ago. I’ve not been high on the Cowboys chances in 2023 for a while but I was under the impression that was consensus. A reality that would make this about as ‘common’ a pick as it could be. However, there are people who are buying ‘this is the sneaky Mike Gundy kind of team’. Hey, maybe I’ll be wrong but I just don’t see Oklahoma State sticking with the Sooners in the last Bedlam matchup in the foreseeable future.

19. Oklahoma’s Tight Ends Won’t Combine for 30 Catches

Breakdown: For the first time since 2015 Oklahoma’s tight end room won’t combine for 30 total catches. To put that in perspective? The group that year that came up short was a redshirt freshman Mark Andrews along with Lee Morris, Connor Knight and Sam Grant. I’m not sure there’s a future Mackey award winner in the group in 2023 but there are certainly plenty of question marks in a group that has some real injury history, and outside of Austin Stogner, a lot of unknowns.

18. P.J. Adebawore Gets at Least Six Sacks

Breakdown: This may not seem that fearless but tracking back to 2005, the farthest record we could track, the Sooners haven’t had a freshman hit this number. In fact for all of Oklahoma’s successes, there haven’t always been huge sack numbers. But with the way that Brent Venables can create pressure, particularly with a weapon like Adebawore, I just see a big year. It’s the kind of year that could set him up for some real stardom nationally in 2024.

17. Dillon Gabriel Does Not Make 1st or 2nd Team All Big-12

Breakdown: Gabriel was left off several preseason first team lists and a lot of people seem shocked by it. I thought Gabriel came on toward the end of the year but much was made of his Cheez-It Bowl performance, where he failed to complete 60-percent of his passes. The Sooners quarterback should be as motivated as he could be as 2023 is almost certainly his final go around in Norman. However, he is a guy who can help Oklahoma but huge numbers could be tough in an offense that may lean heavily on a talented ground game.

16. Danny Stutsman Leads College Football in Tackles

Breakdown: Everyone knows that Stutsman led the Big 12 in tackles in 2022 and even so was left off numerous All-Big 12 lists for 2023. The Sooners WILL linebacker under Venables has considerable history, including a pair of Butkus winners. Stutsman needs to go a long way before he’s ready to be mentioned with the likes of Teddy Lehman and Rocky Calmus but that said his productivity could be exceptional.

15. Look for Oklahoma to Drop one of Kansas or BYU

Breakdown: Look, we know I pick one of these every year and until last year my picks had seemed fairly prescient. But when you’re losing a mess of games, these type of slips don’t seem nearly so ‘fearless’. That said, it’s safe to say I’m expecting more out of the Sooners in 2023 and these two games, on paper, should be wins. But if it’s possible to forget what Jalon Daniels did for the Jayhawks last year, I think many have. He was one of the most dynamic weapons in the conference and, arguably, the sport. Look out for a game falling just before the final Bedlam game for the foreseeable future.

With the Cougars, the Sooners also get in a bit of a scheduling pickle. A Saturday night in Provo less than a week before what is sure to be a roster-wide anticipated rematch with TCU? On paper, I like Oklahoma by some distance but that feels like a trap for BYU to spring.

14. Billy Bowman makes third team All-American

Breakdown: If I was to weigh in on the predictions I’m most convinced about? It might be this one. I feel like Bowman will almost certainly put together a big season. Add that to the reality that so many are going to be watching Oklahoma’s defense to see if Brent Venables can fix things and you get the spotlight to garner this kind of attention. But forget all the ways that help Bowman, his play is criminally under appreciated. If he can stay healthy, this is one of the safer bets on the list.

13. Sooners Start the Season 5-0

Breakdown: A year ago this sort of prediction wouldn’t have felt fearless at all. But with Oklahoma facing a few decent tests in it’s first five games, maybe there’s some risk in here. SMU and Cincinnati figure to be good litmus tests for the Sooners. Keep an eye on how they handle those two games. If Oklahoma is in a dogfight, there’s a chance for more of the same from 2022. If they can go in and look like the more talented team that they are, perhaps there’s a chance to prove last year was a blip.

12. Baker’s Dozen of Sooners Avoid Redshirting

Breakdown: OK, too young to get this numeric reference? How about 13 Sooners freshman playing enough to keep moving forward with their eligibility. There are some who are very obvious, Jackson Arnold (more below), Kalib Hicks, Peyton Bowen, P.J. Adebawore, Jaquaize Pettaway, Jasiah Wagoner, and Cayden Green among them. A couple that have given plenty of reason to believe that with Oklahoma playing good football they could see the field plenty in 2023 – Lewis Carter and Jacobe Johnson. Finally, Makari Vickers, Kade McIntyre, Heath Ozaeta, and Ashton Sanders. The latter four have all shown real potential but seem to be stuck behind some depth along with the reality of a few still being in the developmental stage of their games.

11. Jackson Arnold Starts at Least One Game

Breakdown: If I’m being honest, I’m not entirely sure I know how this will play out. Could it be an injury to Dillon Gabriel? Could it be Arnold just coming on and ready to be the player we all think he can be? I’m not quite sure but if I’m being honest there’s a part of me that thinks it’ll be more than two. Arnold is a special talent that has impressed everyone. And the more Sooners can get him on the field to be ready for 2024, it’s hard to see it as a bad thing.

10. Tyler Guyton ends up as PFF’s top rated OL in the Big 12

Breakdown: In some years this may not feel that bold but with BYU, Kansas State, and Texas all having future first or second round picks on the offensive line, it would be a strong sign for Guyton. The big offensive tackle is just starting to find his way in the game but his ceiling stands up next to any player in the country. He’s special and seems to be taking on a leadership role for the Sooners. But still it’s his athletic ability and budding physicality that will impress PFF – amongst many others.

9. Jasiah Wagoner Starts 10 Games for OU

Breakdown: All fall long I’ve been waiting for the wave to break on Wagoner. Since the spring its seems that no one can stop themselves from gushing about the young cornerback. Wagoner has shown himself to not only be talented but have a mentality that the Sooners staff has responded to. It’s very possible he’s the opening day starter but one way or another I’d guess he gets the lion’s share of the starts opposite of Woodi Washington.

8. Oklahoma Won’t Have a 1,000 Yard Running Back or Receiver

Breakdown: While many will read this as a negative, it doesn’t necessarily have to be. I think Oklahoma has real depth in the running back room and as such will have maybe three backs who are over 500 yards but perhaps no one that goes over the 1,000 yard mark. At receiver I’m just not sure I see that clear no. 1 but over recent weeks it sure feels like Andrel Anthony is making a move. I think Oklahoma has enough skill at receiver to be solid but we’ll need to see more before a clear top guy can emerge.

7. OU Comes Up Short in the Cotton Bowl

Breakdown: Yes, yes, run to the Crimson Corner and yell at me, I get it. I do think this will be a quality game and certainly a far from last year’s debacle. But in the end I just see more proven elite playmakers on the Texas side of things than I do in Norman. And while people love to tell stories about the James Allen or Peter Gardere moments, it’s usually the Adrian Peterson, Roy Williams, or Vince Young that make the difference. To me though this will, as usual, come down to the line of scrimmage, which offensive line can find more success? I’m betting on Texas but the margin is fairly tight. I’d still like to see some more growth from the entirety of the Longhorns offensive line. The unit has some special talents but somehow the reality that Kelvin Banks is special has been convoluted a bit with the entire group being on the same trajectory.

6. Oklahoma’s Defense Will Finish as a Top 40 SP+ Group

Breakdown: This is Oklahoma, this should be a gimme, right? Well, not to anyone paying attention for the last 15 years but after finishing No. 70 in 2023 the Sooners seem primed for a further move. Oklahoma’s secondary has a chance to be one of the school’s best in quite some time with a good blend of experience and top end young talent. If Oklahoma can find a way to consistently create pressure – and maybe the final five of the Fearless 20 will have something on that – this might be a somewhat modest prediction. Oklahoma’s defense is headed in the right direction from a talent standpoint can Brent Venables get it moving in the same direction on the field?

5. How Will the Big 12 Shake Out in 2023?

Breakdown: There are few conferences in 2023 that seem to have more variables in front of them than the Big 12.

So we’ll count it down from the bottom to the top.

14. BYU

13. Houston

12. Cincinnati

11. West Virginia

10. Iowa State

9. Baylor

8. Oklahoma State

7. UCF

6. Kansas

5. Texas Tech

4. TCU

The thinking is primarily that TCU is going to be a lot better than most anticipate and while I like Texas Tech the talk of winning a league title seem a little far-fetched. I also am a big fan of Jalon Daniels and think the Jayhawks will take another step forward in 2023.

As for the final three schools, we’ll leave that for below.

4. Rondell Bothroyd Lead the Big 12 in Tackles for Loss

Breakdown: I loved what I saw of Rondell Bothroyd when I watched his Wake Forest highlights. From that point forward I’ve heard nothing to stem my belief that he can be a true difference maker for the Sooners. But it’s not just his talent so much as Oklahoma’s scheme being one that creates a lot of plays off the edge. This is a gamble to be sure but Bothroyd has a solid blend of talent and opportunity.

3. Offense Finishes Slightly Below Top 10 of Last year in SP+

Breakdown: This isn’t so much that I expect a big step back or regression or anything, I just think that Oklahoma is going to lean more on it’s run game in 2023. Not so much in numbers – where Oklahoma was decidedly a run heavy team in 2022 – but more so in that its ability to run could be far more explosive this year. I’d look for more big plays from the run game which may limit some passing and impact efficiency numbers.

2. Oklahoma Comes up Just Short of Big 12 Title

Breakdown: I feel the league is going to come down to three teams, Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Texas. The key point to decide the three? The Sooners just have an easier road than their two chief expected combatants. With No. 7 considered I understand the thinking is the pick would be Texas over Oklahoma, however, as many doubts as I have about the Sooners I’ve got a decade’s worth in Texas. I wonder what comes of Quinn Ewers and as special as Kelvin Banks clearly is, where’s the rest of that offensive line at? There’s talent but that’s still a young, developing group. I think what will be the two best offensive lines in the Big 12 will meet for the title – Kansas State and Oklahoma.

Unfortunately for Sooners fans, I’m going to bet on a Kansas State team that, believe it or not, has more experience on that stage than Oklahoma.

1. Oklahoma Will face Tennessee in the Peach Bowl

Breakdown: How fun is this matchup? Before the Sooners hit the SEC, they get their first real taste as, basically, a league member. And they do so against one of the program’s most enigmatic relationships – Josh Heupel. Two offenses that largely mirror each other and two teams looking to spring board to what figure to be highly promising 2024 campaigns, what’s not to like?