Can a lop-sided win over Furman alter Ole Miss' season trajectory? ESPN's FPI says yes

What a difference a week can make in the college football landscape and nobody might feel that more than Ole Miss.

A season-opening beatdown of Furman, 76-0 to be exact, should be evaluated for exactly what it was: A Top 10 FBS program did what it should do over a FCS program, which was ranked in its respective poll.

As coach Bill Yoast tells head coach Herman Boone in “Remember the Titans” to leave no doubt, seems Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin also received that message. The question entering the game was not would Ole Miss win, but by how much and would Kiffin feather the gas peddle once a certain lead was attained?

The question was no and the Rebels cemented that game in the win column to start the 2024 campaign and turned the page to Middle Tennessee.

But what did that victory do when it comes to the ESPN computer calculations known as the Football Power Index? Well, the answer is completely altered several game predictions and change the trajectory of the Rebels season.

When looking at the FPI game-by-game predictions before the season began, Ole Miss was projected to go 9-3 with predicted losses to LSU, Oklahoma and Georgia.

Well, pair what the Rebels did on Saturday with the results of its future 11 opponents this season and things have shifted. Checking the updated FPI predictions ahead of Saturday’s game against the Blue Raiders and Ole Miss is now trending towards its first 11-win regular season in program history.

Losses to the Sooners and Tigers have now moved into heavy-favored wins for the Rebels. The Bulldogs still pose a threat.

Ole Miss saw all of its remaining game percentages move up, according to the FPI projections.

Of course the biggest moves were Southeastern Conference matchups as the three remaining non-conference games were already leaning heavily towards the Rebels.

When looking at the SEC schedule for Ole Miss, which starts in three weeks against Kentucky on September 28, the games that saw the biggest movements were South Carolina, LSU, and Florida.

Among those three games the biggest jump was the game in Gainesville against the Gators on November 23. Before the season started the Rebels were given a 52.5 percent chance to win. After Week 1’s results that jumped 27.2 percent to a 79.7 percent chance to win.

The first road trip in SEC play is to Columbia, South Carolina and Ole Miss was favored in the preseason with a 57 percent chance to win. That has shifted to 77.9 percent chance (a jump of 20.9 percent). In night game at Tiger Stadium, LSU was given a 62.1 percent chance to win. After the Tigers loss to Southern California the Rebels are now favored with a big swing to 60.3 percent (a jump of 22.4 %).

When No. 1 Georgia comes to Oxford on November 9 the Bulldogs have always been favored but that large margin has tightened up, slightly. After being given a 21.2 chance to win in the preseason Ole Miss now holds a 26.7 percent chance.

Below is the remaining schedule for Ole Miss and latest FPI predictions:

• Middle Tennessee — 98% (up 4.7%)
• Wake Forest — 83.3% (up 6.6%)
• Georgia Southern — 95.6% (up 4.2%)
• Kentucky — 78.4% (up 7.3%)
• South Carolina — 77.9% (up 20.9%)
• LSU — 60.3% (up 22.4%)
• Oklahoma — 61.5% (up 15%)
• Arkansas — 69.8% (up 5 %)
• Georgia — 26.7% (up 5.2%)
• Florida — 79.7% (up 27.2%)
• Mississippi St. — 82.3% (Not listed in preseason)