ESPN's Football Power Index projects a low win-loss total for Ole Miss in 2024
Analytics and numbers are not the end-all-be-all in college football but they do help paint a picture of how a team is playing or how they might perform in the upcoming season. Ole Miss is a team that is projected by many to have another record-setting year in 2024.
All except for ESPN’s analytics system, maybe.
The Football Power Index (FPI) that ESPN uses to help calculate how good a team’s year might be released its 2024 preseason numbers on Monday and the Rebels are not receiving as much love from the ‘Worldwide Leader in Sports’ computers as everyone else.
There is a lot of data to parse through when looking at the FPI but the two key numbers for Ole Miss is ranked No. 16 in its Top 25 and the projected win-loss totals.
Being outside the Top 10, let alone the Top 15 is not something the Rebels are accustomed to with all the preseason polls and rankings. Of course, the Associated Press, Coaches Polls and the College Football Playoff rankings are all that matters when the season begins but the FPI data does raise an eyebrow.
Another surprising data point is the win-loss average. The FPI has Ole Miss averaging a record of 7.9 wins and 4.2 losses, essentially projecting an 8-4 season.
Four losses is not going to get the Rebels into the expanded CFP playoffs, but nowhere else are they projected to lose more than two games, if that many.
Not reaching the CFP is viewed by many as nothing less than a disappointing season for Ole Miss and should be considered a failure after how the team has gone all-in for 2024.
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“Everything (the Rebels) need is in-house to make the playoff,” On3’s J.D. PicKell said. “If Ole Miss doesn’t make this 12-team field, this season is a failure. We don’t like to say failure that often, but if that happens, with them missing out, that’s what it would be.”
The FPI goes on to show projections for season milestones such as winning conference championships, getting into and winning the CFP.
For Ole Miss has a 2.3 percent chance of winning the SEC championship, according to the FPI. Though the percentage gets a little higher when it comes to chances of getting to the CFP at 20.7. Making the CFP national title game goes down to 2.2 percent and winning it less than one percent at 0.9.
The only strong percentage is the Rebels chances of having at least six wins, which is at 90 percent, and they have a 0.3 percent to win out and go 12-0 in the regular season. This all according to ESPN’s FPI system.
