GameDay Primer: No. 10 Ole Miss looking to tell its side of CFP story against Texas A&M

So, for Ole Miss, you’re saying there’s a chance? 

The No. 10-ranked Rebels (7-1, 4-1 SEC) enter Saturday’s showdown with Texas A&M (5-3, 3-2) with eight percent odds to reach the College Football Playoff, according to ESPN’s SP+.

Of course, head coach Lane Kiffin and Co. aren’t thinking about such things — even if the Rebels, this week, were placed in the Top 10 of the first round of official CFP rankings. Their strength of schedule is third-best in the country.

“It means nothing until the final one,” Kiffin said this week. “If we don’t keep winning, none of those rankings matter. We’re focused on playing really well each week, like we try to do no matter what month it is.”

Kiffin has a point. 

The Aggies are no push-over, though they’ve certainly disappointed in Year 6 under head coach Jimbo Fisher. Ole Miss and Texas A&M will be meeting for the 15th time in history on Saturday. They’ve been playing games since 1911.

“Ole Miss is a really good football team,” Fisher said. “Everybody talks about them offensively, but their defense, man, has really played well. We’re going to have to play well on the road.”

Texas A&M leads the all-time series 9-3. The Rebels are off to a 7-1 start for the second straight season. They last pulled off the feat when they were winning national titles in the 60s.

Ole Miss has also cracked the Top 10 for the third straight year and first time since 1962-64. Kiffin is the seventh Ole Miss coach to 30 wins and the second-fastest (44 total games).

“This has to be the most talented 5-3 team ever,” Kiffin said. “It’s just completely loaded with players everywhere. There’s matchup concerns. These guys are first in the country in sacks.

“We’re going to have to play really well, prepare really well, be creative and think outside the box to have a chance to beat these guys for a third time in a row.”

The included game notes, though revised, were provided by Ole Miss Athletics.

TEXAS A&M SCOUTING REPORT

Texas A&M is coming off a 30-17 home win over South Carolina. The Aggies limited the Gamecocks to just 209 total yards. 

In facing Ole Miss, Texas A&M is taking on a Top 20 opponent for the third time in its last four games. The Aggies suffered one-score losses to both No. 11 Alabama and No. 19 Tennessee to open the month of October. 

Texas A&M averages 394.2 offensive yards per game, including 266 passing. LSU transfer Max Johnson has taken over at quarterback for the injured Conner Weigman, who was lost for the year in the fourth game of the season. Johnson has completed 59 percent of his passes for 1,147 yards and eight touchdowns. The Aggies have a pair of 500-plus-yard receivers in Ainias Smith and Evan Stewart. 

Texas A&M, defensively, ranks first in the SEC and No. 7 nationally in yards per game allowed (269.2). The Aggies are the best in FBS in sacks and tackles for loss. Linebacker Edgerrin Cooper is the team leader in total tackles (52). He’s No. 1 in FBS in tackles for loss (15.5).

HOME SWEET HOME

Ole Miss has a 297-115-8 (.716) all-time record at home. The Rebels are 19-2 in their last 21. 

Ole Miss is 19-5 overall under Kiffin inside Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Included is a 14-game home winning streak from November 14, 2020 to October 15, 2022, the longest for the Rebels since winning 21 straight from 1952-1959. 

STINGY DEFENSE

Ole Miss has been on a defensive tear. 

The Rebels have won each of their last three games (Arkansas, Auburn and Vanderbilt) as a result.

They were victorious in different ways, too. Ole Miss held Arkansas to just 36 rushing yards, the fewest since the Rebels held Tennessee to zero in October of 2014.They kept Vanderbilt to 60 passing yards, also the fewest since 2014.

The recent three-game stretch (Arkansas, 288; Auburn, 275; Vanderbilt, 229) is the first of its kind since 2008-09. Ole Miss last held three straight SEC foes to fewer than 300 yards within the same season in 1993.

CAUSING MAYHEM

Ole Miss is ranked fourth nationally in sacks (3.8 per game) and eighth in tackles for loss (7.9 per game). The Rebels have recorded at least 4.0 tackles for loss in all eight games this season. They’ve tallied at least 6.0 in seven, including four with at least 9.0. 

They had double-digit TFLs against Mercer(11.0) and Arkansas (10.0). The Rebels lead the FBS in opponents’ lost yardage (317). 

Ole Miss has produced multiple sacks in seven games and recorded at least four sacks in five. The Rebels have logged five sacks twice. Thirteen total Rebels have contributed to a quarterback sack. Twenty-two have chipped-in on a TFL. They have six forced fumbles, nine interceptions, 32 QB hurries, 31 pass breakups and a blocked field goal. 

Ole Miss has recorded multiple sacks in 32 games in the Kiffin era. The Rebels have at least 5.0 TFL in 30, and at least 4.0 sacks in 18. Ole Miss is 21-9 in games under Kiffin with at least 5.0 tackles for loss. The Rebels are 10-3 with at least 4.0 sacks.

WINNING THE TURNOVER BATTLE

Ole Miss leads the SEC and is No. 13 in the FBS in turnover margin. The Rebels currently sit at a total-season margin of +7 and per-game margin of +0.9. 

Ole Miss, offensively, is second in the SEC and eighth nationally in turnovers (six).

NO-FLY ZONE

The Ole Miss secondary has strung together an excellent stretch of games, beginning with safety and Liberty transfer Daijahn Anthony’s game-sealing pass breakup against No. 12 LSU in September. 

The Rebels yielded just 437 combined passing yards to Arkansas (250), Auburn (122) and Vanderbilt (60). In that same stretch, Rebel defensive backs have combined for 17 total passes defended (six interceptions, 11 pass breakups). Ole Miss intercepted two or more passes in all three — the first such stretch since 20134. 

Senior safety Trey Washington’s two interceptions against Vanderbilt in October made him the first Rebel with two in the same game since A.J. Finley against Liberty in 2021. He’s one of just five defensive backs in the SEC to do so this season. 

Ole Miss, on the year, has allowed just two opponents to break 300 yards passing — LSU (414), current SEC leader and FBS No. 3 in passing offense; and Georgia Tech (307), current ACC No. 4/FBS No. 40.

RELATED: Ole Miss back in a New Year’s Six bowl in latest projections after win over Vanderbilt

BIG PLAY POTENTIAL

The Rebels continue to be one of the best teams in the country in explosive plays. 

They’re currently tied for third in the FBS in plays of 20 yards or more (56). Ole Miss has 142 plays (17.8 per game) of 10 or more yards, which is ninth in the FBS.

DON’T BLINK

Ole Miss sits at No. 10 in the FBS in seconds per play (23.2). The Rebels this season own seven scoring drives clocking in under the one-minute mark, including back-to-back opening drives against Mercer (51 seconds) and Tulane (48 seconds). 

The 51-second drive against Mercer was the fastest to open a season for Ole Miss since 2018. The 28 first-quarter points are the most in available records since at least 1967. 

The 48-second debut against the Green Wave, meanwhile, was the fastest on any opening drive for the Rebels since finding the end zone in just 34 seconds against Liberty in November of 2021. 

Ole Miss is 25-5 when scoring first under Kiffin.