Ole Miss finds itself in ESPN's first FPI Rankings for the 2023 season
The way the 2022 college football season ended for Ole Miss brought immediate concern and the urgent need of wanting 2023’s campaign to go much better.
After a 7-0 start the proverbial wheels came off Ole Miss in the back half of the season with a 1-5 finish, including the loss in the Texas Bowl.
Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin went back to work and made initial gains in the transfer portal and used the spring practices to find out what else his shopping list is missing for this second round of the portal window before summer.
With all of those factors in place the outlook for 2023 is cautiously optimistic a little less than five months out. ESPN released its first FPI rankings for the upcoming season on Tuesday and Ole Miss finds itself firmly inside the top 25 teams.
The FPI is ESPN’s season-long ratings and projections system. In the preseason it relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating. We then use those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times, resulting in our projections.
Think of it as when we were all younger and had our hands on Electronic Art’s latest NCAA College Football video game and simulated the Ole Miss football season over and over again.
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Ole Miss averaged out to be the 16th best team in the first 2023 FPI rankings after ESPN ran its calculations. The Rebels had a FPI Power Index of 13.4.
Ole Miss was one of five Southeastern Conference teams to land in the top 25 of the FPI Rankings.
Ohio State earned the No. 1 spot with a rating of 31.5 followed by Alabama at No. 2 (28.2) and Georgia at No. 3 (27.4). LSU and Texas roundout the top five.
Ahead of Ole Miss among SEC teams is Tennessee at No. 12 with a 15.2 rating.
When it comes to the Rebels 2023 schedule they play five teams inside the top 30 of the FPI Rankings. Egg Bowl opponent Mississippi State is just outside it sitting at No. 32.
The FPI also gives a win-loss window of 7.6-4.4, meaning it expects Ole Miss to end up right where they ended the 2022 regular season, give or take a loss. They also have a two percent chance to make it to the SEC Championship game and less than one percent (0.9%) chance to reach the College Football Playoff National Championship.
The CFP percentage puts them at the 18th best chance to reach the title game.
Here’s a look at Ole Miss’ 2023 schedule, and where each opponent ranks in the RPI:
- Sept. 2 – vs. Mercer: N/A (FPI doesn’t rank FCS teams)
- Sept. 9 – at Tulane: 55
- Sept. 16 – vs. Georgia Tech: 65
- Sept. 23 – at Alabama: 2
- Sept. 30 – vs. LSU: 4
- Oct. 7 – vs. Arkansas: 30
- Oct. 21 – at Auburn: 39
- Oct. 28 – vs. Vanderbilt: 73
- Nov. 4 – vs. Texas A&M: 19
- Nov. 11 – at Georgia: 3
- Nov. 18 – vs. Louisiana Monroe: 127
- Nov. 23 – at Mississippi State: 32
