Ranking the games on the Ole Miss schedule from easiest to hardest, according to ESPN's FPI
In just over two weeks No. 6 Ole Miss will enter Vaught-Hemingway Stadium and kickoff what is sure to be a massive season and 12 Saturdays in the Fall.
With the 2024 campaign getting closer — regular season games begin on August 24 — ESPN released FPI percentages for every game on the Rebels schedule.
There are few surprises when looking at the Ole Miss late, especially the first month of the season with four straight non-conference games to kick off the year. Yet, the ESPN computers project a 9-3 season with three key SEC losses on the books for the Rebels.
Three losses would put College Football Playoffs in limbo even with the expanded 12-team format. Most pundits and national talking heads see 10-2 as a possible floor for Ole Miss, but this is why they play the games.
It should not be too eye raising for fans to see that the Rebels have the best chance at wins in their games against Furman (97.3 percent), Middle Tennessee (93.3) and Georgia Southern (91.4). The lone road non-conference game at Wake Forest is also in favor of Ole Miss with a 76.7 percent chance to win.
In fact, the FPI predictor has the Rebels undefeated at 6-0 heading to LSU on October 12 with projected wins over Kentucky (70.7) and at South Carolina (57.0).
But once mid-October gets here things become bumpy as Ole Miss is projected to drop three out of its next four games. The Rebels have less than a 40 percent chance to win in Baton Rouge at 37.9 then are projected to return from its first bye with a home loss to SEC newcomer Oklahoma (46.5 percent chance).
A projected win at Arkansas on November 2 stops the bleeding but then the anticipated return game against preseason No. 1 Georgia is set to end in the Bulldogs favor with a 78.8 percent chance of winning.
Ole Miss rebounds at Florida with a projected 52.5 percent chance to leave ‘The Swamp’ with a win. There is not a projected outcome for the Egg Bowl, yet, but one would tend to think it leans heavily towards the Rebels favor.
Below is the order of Ole Miss opponents from easiest to toughest, according to the FPI:
- Furman — 97.3 percent
- Middle Tennessee — 93.3 percent
- Georgia Southern – 91.4 percent
- Wake Forest – 76.7 percent
- Kentucky – 70.7 percent
- Arkansas – 64.8 percent
- South Carolina – 57 percent
- Florida – 52.5 percent
- Oklahoma – 46.5 percent
- LSU – 37.9 percent
- Georgia – 21.2 percent
- Mississippi State – N/A
